@barstoolsports 90’s early 2000’s baseball were goated. We will never see anything like it again. The players, coaches, rivalries were all incredible.
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Taylor
157 posts
Chipper Jones favorite ejection story of Bobby Cox will always make a room laugh.
RIP to a Legend
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@BlutmanMark @spencerpratt Literally snorted his nose off. I avoid LA at all cost but when I do go. Parking garage, quick walk into Staples center then speed back to Orange County. Rinse and repeat.
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@John_Fanta @NBCSports Fanta on the biggest heater and I couldn’t be happier. Our king 👑 comes to the diamond.
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Really love all sports. My first memories entail … baseball. Loved going to the ballpark with dad and grandpa growing up. Earliest memory of being interested in broadcasting was from ⚾️. Excited to be a part of some MLB on @NBCSports coverage starting Sunday for Nats/Marlins!
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@LexEtCrux @CantHitWRISP Who knows, but I’m guessing better than Mr. Anderson. We’re a poverty team man
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@CantHitWRISP This is at Coors Field…a know hitters park. Who knows how he would’ve done in Anaheim
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Angels released him for Tim Anderson lol
Colorado Rockies@Rockies
10TH HOME RUN. 16 GAME HITTING STREAK (just the longest active streak in the league)
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@JohnnyA74674981 @Angels Agreed but Ohtani just won rookie of the year in 2018. Trout resigned in 2019. He probably saw a bright future with a new young stud and arte probably promised him the world at signing. I agree he should have left but I see why he resigned. Family already has roots etc
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2026 Bowman vs 2025 Bowman
If you caught my 2026 Bowman breakdown, you already know I’ve planted my flag on a particular format…even with release still weeks out.
If you haven't read that breakdown, here it is:
x.com/WaxMetrix/stat…
In that write-up, I leaned toward Value Boxes as the best rip in the product. But after contradicting myself a bit on @BigBobsCards Prospect Analytics podcast, it felt like I owed this a closer look. So let's try and settle the question as best we can with the data we currently have available:
Are 2026 Bowman Value Boxes actually better than 2025 Bowman Value Boxes…or did I get a little ahead of myself?
As I mentioned, Value Boxes were trimmed from 72 cards in 2025 to 60 cards for 2026. So we're already starting off behind the 8-ball.
As I mentioned, Value Boxes took a haircut- 72 cards in 2025 down to 60 in 2026. So we’re already starting this thing behind the 8-ball.
Checklist is also important, but it's not really my lane to go full scout mode. Luckily, there are people who do a fantastic job of that. If you want to dig in, prospect-analytics.com and Let’s Talk Wax on YouTube are both legit.
Just eyeballing the top end, 2025 looks loaded, but will definitely require more seasoning. Names like Jesús Made, Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, Kevin McGonigle, Luis Peña, and Franklin Arias feel like a solid top end.
Now, comparing that to 2026 at this stage is a bit of a crap shoot. A year from now, it's very possible we'll be talking about a handful of this new class the same way.
Here I want to put some numbers behind the dynamics of Value Boxes from both years.
Total production of Value Boxes:
2026: 982,333 boxes (24,558 cases)
2025: 1,095,833 boxes (27,396 cases)
Total Parallels (Value Boxes only):
2026: 1,829,622
2025: 1,810,053
Parallel production in Value Boxes increased by 1% despite production decreasing by 10%. This equates to a parallel pull rate of 1.86 per box on average for 2026 compared to 1.65/box in 2025.
Extrapolating this out over a case, depending on which specific SKU your case happens to be- EA (Retail Stores), SE (Direct Channel), or CEE (European Channel), you should pull anywhere from 70-76 parallels.
Advantage: 2026.
Total Autos (Value Boxes only):
2026: 98,967
2025: 180,065
So here we have our first major difference, a significant auto reduction of 45%. As a result, auto pull rates in Value Boxes goes from 1 in 6.1 boxes (6.6/case) in 2025, to 1 in 9.9 boxes (4/case) for 2026.
Also of note, the percentage of paper autos rose from 44.3% in 2025 to 55.5% for 2026. There are only a handful of Chrome Prospect & Rookie Auto parallels pullable from either year, but the reduction obviously comes more heavily from the Chrome side.
Advantage: 2025 (by a lot).
Total Numbered cards (Value Boxes only):
2026: 743,019
2025: 807,727
This decrease is what you would expect based on slightly smaller production. Numbered cards per box creeps up ever so slightly from 1 in 74% of boxes to 1 in 76%.
Advantage: Even.
One more metric I like to lean on, and something you’ve heard if you follow me, is “Quality Hits.” Completely made up, but it does a nice job highlighting formats that actually produce meaningful hits at more favorable rates. For me, that means base and insert parallels /75 or better, case hit-level or rarer inserts, and autos /100 or less.
Boxes per Quality Hit:
2026: 1 per 8.08 boxes
2025: 1 per 8.48 boxes
Technically better this year, but barely. That translates to about 4.95 quality hits per case vs. 4.72 last year. You’re talking roughly a quarter of a hit per case, so for all intents and purposes, it’s flat. Not worse, but not meaningfully better either. And I don't care to argue over crumbs.
The key detail though is that this is happening with 16.7% fewer cards per box. So while the overall output hasn’t really moved, 2026 Value Boxes are slightly more concentrated with meaningful hits.
Advantage: 2026 (barely).
So far, I think we can all agree that Value boxes have not changed considerably YOY, but are probably slightly worse due to the decrease in Autos.
There is one more difference, and how much it matters is up to you.
In 2025, the only rare inserts you could hit out of Value were Animes. Factoring in Base & parallels, you were looking at about 1 in 372 boxes (9.3 cases).
2026 opens that up quite a bit. Now you’ve got Anime, Patchwork, Etched in Glass, Spotlights, Crystallized, and Final Draft all in play from Value Boxes.
Combined, those fall around 1 in 35.95 boxes, or about 1.1 per case. So you’re basically expecting one per case, with about 1 in 10 cases sneaking in a second.
That’s a noticeable upgrade from last year. For some, having a legit shot at one, maybe two, rare inserts per case will help offset the ~2.6 fewer autos you’re giving up.
Overall, are 2026 Bowman Value Boxes better than 2025?
The definitive answer is....
Maybe.
Not to be anticlimactic, but it's kind of up to you to decide what's important to you.
As for me, I am thankful that this discussion is even possible. With so many products, Value Boxes are usually the opposite of their name- a barren wasteland designed to suck in new buyers who don’t know any better. With all the wack blasters out there, I'll take a small win any way I can get it.
Which is why I have two cases on pre-order. Might just get cute and buy two more.
So yeah…take all of this very responsible analysis and do with it what you will.
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026Bowman
SlabSquatch Sports Cards@WaxMetrix
2026 Bowman Baseball Analysis & Deep Dive Bowman season doesn’t sleep. Before the wax from Bowman Basketball even cools, Topps is already back with baseball…because apparently we’re all just supposed to reload the bankroll and keep ripping. And every year, Bowman mostly sticks to the script…at least on the baseball side. If you saw my Basketball breakdown, you know how that played out. Hobby and Jumbo carried the weight. Value and Mega, not so much. With release day tomorrow, rippers are about to find definitively that the Squatch was onto something. But Bowman Baseball has always had one wildcard… Year after year, value boxes have managed to provide…GASP…actual value. They’ve built a reputation as the budget rip that actually made some sense. Not amazing…just not lighting money on fire. This year? I’ve got some fairly definitive answers on whether that reputation survives. Hang tight, prospector. We’ll get there. Welcome to 2026 Bowman Baseball. Part 1: The Basics First, let’s talk about what actually changed…because there’s a decent amount of it this year. Hobby boxes got the Ozempic treatment. They’ve been trimmed from 24 packs of 8 cards down to 20 packs. Value boxes joined the party as well, now sitting at 6 packs of 10 cards instead of 12 cards per pack. Jumbo is a little hazy right now. Checklist sites still have them at 12 packs of 28 cards. I haven’t seen any official box rendering to confirm that, and with Bowman Basketball rolling out at 12 packs of 25 cards, there’s at least a chance baseball follows suit. For now, I’m rolling with 28 cards per pack based on data currently available. Even if that ends up being off, it won’t impact the hit fundamentals at all…just some of the base card calculations. Mega boxes also got a bit of a facelift. Instead of the usual base packs plus 2 Mojo packs setup, it looks like we’re getting 6 packs of 7 cards, with Mojo parallels mixed directly into those packs. So from an odds standpoint, we’re on solid ground for all hit calculations. The one piece I can’t fully lock in yet is the base card breakdown per player across paper base, paper prospects, and chrome prospects. I do have total base production accounted for, so once pack dynamics are confirmed, I’ll be able to dial that in pretty quickly. Pre-order took place on April 13th with the following prices: Hobby- $240 Jumbo- $520 Value boxes- $30 Megas- $50 Actual release date is set for May 13, and I would expect those prices to be a tick higher on the Hobby/Jumbo side. Part 2: Odds Sheet Autopsy Total cards in the product: 128,365,094 This. Is. Significant. Though it may not seem like it at first. Here's why: 2025 Bowman Total Cards: 152,262,136 YOY: -15.7% The crazy thing is, production of sealed product is very similar to last year. This shows the massive effects that a little trimming here and there can have on total production. Total cards by card type: Autos: 2026- 585,371 2025- 634,616 YOY: -7.8% Parallels: 2026- 10,908,836 2025- 8,343,680 YOY: +30.7% Inserts: 2026- 10,278,733 2025- 10,554,088 YOY : -2.6% Total Base Cards (Combination of Base Paper, Paper Prospects, & Base Chrome Prospects): 2026- 106,592,153 2025- 132,729,751 YOY: -19.7% Total Production by Format: Hobby- 116,412 boxes (9,701 cases) YOY: -1.4% Jumbo- 61,040 boxes (7,630 cases) YOY: +0.6% Breaker's Delight- 33,000 boxes (5,500 cases) YOY: +4.8% Value Boxes- 982,333 (24,558 cases) YOY: -10.4% Megas- 713,325 (35,666 cases) YOY: +18.9% Hit Rates: Hobby- 1 Auto, 8.5 parallels, 18.9 inserts, 3 numbered cards Jumbo- 3 Autos, 7.2 parallels, 30.2 inserts, 4 numbered cards Breaker's Delight- 2 Autos, 4.6 parallels, 1 insert, 3.6 numbered cards Value- 1 Auto per 9.9 boxes (4 Autos/case), 1.9 parallels, 5.3 inserts, 0.76 numbered cards (76% of Value Boxes should produce a # card) Mega- 1 Auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7 Autos/case), 10.3 parallels (includes 6 Mojos, 2 Lazer per box), 1.4 inserts, 0.8 numbered cards (80% of boxes should produce a # card) A couple important additions to this segment: 1) Of the total autos in the product, numbered vs unnumbered autos are split almost exactly 50% ea. 2) Non-Chrome Paper Autos are exclusive to Value boxes. Of all autos inserted into Value boxes, 55.5% are paper autos. So at a rate of ~4 autos per Value Box case, I would expect at least 2 of them to be Paper Autos. Part 3: Value Map (Pricing based on pre-order pricing for Jumbo/Hobby and MSRP on Retail formats. Breaker's Delight not included as it's generally not available to the public.) $/card: 1) Value- 50¢ 2) Mega- $1.19 3) Hobby- $1.50 $/parallel: 1) Mega- $4.64 2) Value- $17.05 3) Hobby- $28.37 $/Auto: 1) Jumbo- $173.33 2) Hobby- $240.00 3) Mega- $270.00 4) Value- $297.60 $/# Card: 1) Value- $39.47 2) Mega- $63.29 3) Hobby- $80.00 4) Jumbo- $130.00 Part 4: Let’s Play a Little Game I don’t think we have enough numbers yet, so let’s run a quick comparison. Imagine you’ve got the itch to rip, and your options are: a 40-box case of Value Boxes ($1200), or the equivalent spend in Hobby or Jumbo. (You might notice I left out Megas. That’s intentional. I just don’t think they’re good enough to be in this conversation. Yes, they dominate from a $/parallel standpoint, but that’s only because you’re getting 6 Mojos & 2 Lazers per box. So unless you’re chasing low-end, unnumbered parallels and non-1st Bowman autos, they’re going to firmly plant themselves at the bottom of the format value list.) Here’s what you could expect from ripping a near-equivalent value of each (results will vary, of course): 2 Jumbos ($1040) – 6 Autos, 14.4 Parallels, 8 #’d cards 5 Hobby boxes ($1200) – 5 Autos, 42 Parallels, 15 #’d cards 1 Case (40) Value Boxes ($1200) – 4 Autos (2 Paper, 2 Chrome), 70 Parallels, 30 #’d cards These results are pretty staggering. To be clear, it’s typical for lower-numbered variants to show up more heavily in Hobby and Jumbo. But the sheer volume of parallels and numbered cards you’re getting out of Value, over a decent sample size, is hard to ignore. That kind of volume creates a pretty solid floor for rippers of this product. Part 5: Best Formats I already laid out the case for Value Boxes. Though Value Box autos did take a step back this year (1 per 10 boxes vs. 1 per 6 last year), but let’s zoom in on where each format actually wins. For autos, nothing changes. Jumbos are still the most cost-effective path. Jumbos gonna Jumbo. For parallels and common inserts? It’s not even close. Value Boxes run laps around everything. For any parallel that exists in Value, they offer the cheapest pull rate across the board. Now, there are some exceptions. Certain Xfractors, Shimmers, and Waves aren’t available in Value. If that’s what you’re chasing, Hobby becomes your best bet and clears Jumbo in that department. Also of note, Snack Packs are a thing again in 2026. If you like rare refractors featuring ballpark eats, these are ONLY pullable from Hobby boxes and should land 1 in ~25 cases. To avoid weighing shenanigans, I would probably avoid ebay if I'm purchasing sealed hobby boxes. But let’s get to the real question… What about the nukes? As always, Topps threw some truly desirable inserts in this Bowman release: Anime, Etched in Glass, Bowman Spotlights, Crystallized, Final Draft, and the new Patchwork inserts. (And for those wondering, no GPKs here like we saw in Basketball.) Here’s where things get interesting. Almost all of these are live in Value Boxes (only exception being Orange Crystallized /25). And not only are they possible… Value is actually the most cost-effective way to pull them. Yes, even the case-hit level stuff! Outside of the ultra-rare Anime parallels (Black /10, Red /5, Kanji /5, and the Super), Value Boxes give you the best shot per dollar at hitting these. Panini fanboyss are going to hate that. “Nukes shouldn’t come from retail.” I get it. But from a pure numbers standpoint? This is a massive win for the average ripper. And honestly...I applaud Topps for that. Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? You already know the deal…Squatch likes to rip. And this time? Squatch is ripping Value Boxes. But if you’ve been following me, you also know I like to identify products that are primed to move sealed. This is where I’ll throw in a word of caution: I don’t expect this one to double out of the gate like some of the recent hype releases. Bowman doesn’t usually work like that. The sealed market here is a slow burn. It often softens early, then gradually climbs as the top prospects start separating themselves. And I gotta say, that may be for the best. I truly don't want Bowman to double in price off the rip. If it does, it should make Value Boxes even more tantalizing because they likely won't spike in price. If you’re planning to flip, you might be waiting a while. We’ve seen this before. Even 2023 and 2024 Bowman Draft- both loaded with monster 1st Bowman checklists in hindsight- sat flat (and in some cases dipped below drop pricing) before they really started to move. So if you’re buying to hold sealed, just understand what you’re signing up for. These might collect dust for a bit, and that's ok. But give them time to marinate and you’ll almost certainly be rewarded. Overall, this is a Squatch approved product. Rip it. Hold it. Stack it. Just don’t expect a quick flip to bail you out. Part 7: Print Runs (Per Player Base Production to be added as pack dynamics become available.) Unnumbered Parallels: League Logofractors (Hobby only)- ~65 ea Lazer Refractors (Mega only)- ~9,450 ea Xfractors (Hobby only)- ~775 ea Gumball/Sunflower Seeds (Hobby only)- 11 ea Peanuts/Popcorn (Hobby only)- 10 ea Reptilian Refractors- ~8,190 ea Bowman Logo Pattern- ~100 ea Etched in Glass Variation- ~350 ea Red RC Variation (40 card CL)- ~20,690 ea Mojo Refractors (Mega Box only-100 card CL)- ~42,800 ea Mojo Chrome Prospects Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~150 ea Mojo Base Chrome Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~150 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Scouts' Top 100 (100 card CL)- ~34,900 ea Electric Sluggers (25 card CL)- ~69,630 ea Under the Radar (20 card CL)- ~80,900 ea Bowman Sterling (15 card CL)- ~107,805 ea Power Chords (25 card CL)- ~29,070 ea Electric Sluggers Mojo (Mega Box only)- ~9,500 ea Bowman Sterling Mojo (Mega Box only)- ~47,555 ea Mega Futures (Mega Box Only- 25 card CL)- ~2,140 ea Rare Inserts: Patchwork (30 card CL)- ~185 ea Anime (29 card CL)- ~190 ea Anime Kanji Variation (7 card CL)- 5 ea Bowman Spotlights (15 card CL)- ~140 ea Crystallized (20 card CL)- ~100 ea Final Draft (20 card CL)- ~185 ea Unnumbered Autos: Chrome Prospect Autos (87 card CL)- ~1,880 ea Chrome Rookie Autos (13 card CL)- ~500 ea Paper Prospect Retail Autos (31 card CL)- ~700 ea Paper Rookies & Vets Retail Autos (35 card CL)- ~200 ea Prospect Mojo Autos (60 card CL)- ~1,490 ea Rookie Mojo Autos (10 card CL)- ~120 ea Mojo Image Variation Autos (6 card CL)- 25 ea Mojo Prospect Image Variation Autos (7 card CL)- 25 ea Ultimate Auto Book Redemption Card (1 card CL)- 10 ea All-America Game Autos (1 card CL)- ~199 ea All-America Game Red Ink Autos- 10 ea Chrome Prospect Auto B&W Shimmer (87 card CL)- 11 ea Mojo Prospect B&W Autos (60 card CL)- 15 ea Mojo Rookies B&W Autos (10 card CL)- 15 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026Bowman
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@end3of6days9 Its only 2.63 grams of Gold.
There is 28.35 grams in 1 ounce
1 ounce is ~$4742
That gold is worth $385 and the shop has to send it in as scrap and won't get spot. $240 is reasonable
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💰 This guy brings in a gold dental grill he paid $1,200 for five years ago. The pawnbroker tests it, confirms it’s real 10k gold (6.2 grams), and offers him only $240. He ends up taking the deal.
It’s a quick reminder of how much markup we pay for some vanity pieces and how little value you actually get back when you go to sell them.
Have you ever sold gold or jewelry at a pawn shop? How did the offer compare to what you originally paid?
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@europa396263942 @end3of6days9 Was a couple months back. 2.6 grams of 10k is $162 today. Pawnbroker pickers on YouTube, they have a cool channel and their prices are always fair if not more.
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@layscrispytaco @WaxMetrix Saquon just sold for nearly 5k on eBay. Take that info for what it’s worth. I would list high and see what happens. First to market 📈
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@WaxMetrix This analysis is 🔥
I hit a Mahomes tecmo yesterday, in your opinion is that a sell asap or a hold?
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2025 Topps Chrome NFL Analysis & Deep Dive
With NFL Chrome being one of the most hyped releases of the year, I figure there might be a few more eyeballs than usual on this one.
So maybe we tone it down a bit. Be professional. Show some class. Talk about all the things we appreciate about this long-awaited, masterful Chrome release. Keep it clean. Keep it polished. Ease people into the Squatch experience.
Yeah…that sounds like the responsible thing to do.
And that's precisely why...…we’re not doing that.
We’re cranking the spice all the way up.
Because after all this time, Chrome Football is finally here. And there's a lot going on with this monstrosity. Some of it could even be called good.
But there’s also a whole lot in this product that’s got the Squatch's butt hole puckering.
So grab a Snickers. This one's massive. And may have a surprise or two.
Welcome to 2025 Topps Chrome NFL.
If you need more product breakdowns like this in your life, please consider following me on Substack, where I have my entire archive of 100+ product breakdowns in a much more navigable format.
@slabsquatch" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@slabsquatch
Total cards in the product:
97,218,332
Let's compare this to its two closest Chrome cousins:
2025 Topps Chrome MLB- 67,711,000 total cards
2025/26 Topps Chrome NBA- 89,850,600 total cards
To absolutely no one's surprise, this one beats them both. NBA Chrome broke the printing presses for a Chrome release. This one ran over them with a bulldozer. Somehow, I don't think this surprises too many people. You want to know something that will?
Even though Topps squeezed over 7 million (8.2%) more cards into NFL Chrome than NBA, there are fewer base cards in the NFL release. A LOT fewer. Let's compare.
Production by card type:
2026/26 NBA Chrome:
Total Inserts- 7,317,126
Total Parallels- 8.929,624
Total Autos- 405,410
Total Base- 73,198,440
Base cards per player (299 card CL)- 244,811
2025 Topps Chrome NFL:
Total Inserts- 11,858,048 (+62%)
Total Parallels- 25,960,373 (+190.7%)
Total Autos- 441,420 (+8.9%)
Total Base- 58,958,491 (-19.5%)
Base cards per player (300 card CL)- 157,683
Base Rookies per player (100 card CL)- 116,535
If there's one thing you take away from this breakdown, this should be it.
Topps is attempting to make this massive product feel loaded. That's why you see a litany of all new parallels, most of them garbage, of the high-numbered or unnumbered variety.
In some products, more parallels actually made the product better (Bowman's Best, Bowman Chrome). In others, they absolutely nuked all the value (2025 Topps Chrome MLB). With the preposterous prices you'll have to pay to acquire hobby formats, this product needs all the help it can get.
Unfortunately, this ain't it. We need more than a massive watered-down checklist and list of parallels resembling a CVS receipt to make that happen.
Total production by format:
Since we all have NBA Chrome fresh on our mind, I will add how each of these compares to its production in parentheses.
Hobby- 103,754 boxes <8,646 cases> (-0.7%)
Jumbo- 32,036 boxes <4,005 cases> (-7.5%)
Jumbo First Day Issue- 1,248 boxes <156 cases> (N/A)
Breaker's Delight- 37,870 boxes <6,312 cases> (+20.7%)
Value- 1,376,019 boxes <34,400 cases> (+18.2%)
Mega- 691,539 boxes <34,577 cases> (+12.8%)
Hangers- 917,076 <14,329 cases> (+81.3%)
Fanatics Megas- 30,068 boxes <1,503 cases> (0%)
As you can see, among Hobby formats, Breaker's Delight is the only one that spiked...because of course it did.
Retail formats crept up slightly, aside from Hangers, which exploded. Anyone else remember that all-too-short moment in time where we all went ape on those freaking glorious NBA Chrome Hangers? Might want to take a seat and prepare yourself for disappointment. More on that momentarily.
Also, there is a Sapphire SKU which I will address in the future as it gets closer to release.
Hit Rates:
For some reason, Topps has been overly descriptive with these. Their stated expectations generally line up with the odds, but there are some exceptions.
Hobby- 1 Auto, 12 parallels, 13.6 inserts, 3.6 numbered cards. (The math shows less parallels than Topps says, but more numbered cards than the stated 2. Overall we're really close, though.)
Jumbo- 2 Autos, 21.5 parallels, 18.5 inserts, 6.6 numbered cards (Again, I'm showing slightly fewer overall parallels than the stated 23, but more numbered cards. Overall numbers match though.)
Breaker's- 2 Autos, 9 parallels, 1 insert per 5 boxes, 3 numbered cards
Value boxes- 1 Auto per 18.25 boxes (2.2/case), 8 parallels 2.7 inserts, 3.5 boxes per numbered card
Megas- 1 Auto per 8.9 boxes (2.25/case), 14 parallels, 5.3 inserts, 1.75 boxes per numbered card
Hangers- 1 Auto per 29 boxes (2.2/case), 4 parallels, 2.6 inserts, 6.8 boxes per numbered card
Fanatics Mega- 1 Auto per 5.4 boxes (3.7/case), 17 parallels, 5.1 inserts, 1.6 boxes per numbered card
Value Map:
Pricing on this one is messy.
If I base Hobby SKUs on drop pricing, it doesn’t help much- we all know our chances of actually landing an EQL win are basically zero. But using secondary prices isn’t much better since the secondary market is wild.
On top of that, Jumbo pricing is still a bit of a mystery. We know Hobby is jumping $50 per box from pre-order, but Topps hasn’t clarified what Jumbo will land at on the drop.
So here’s where I’m landing:
Hobby at expected drop pricing, $400.
Jumbo at $700 (pre-order was $650).
Fanatics Megas at $80.
Retail formats at standard pricing for Value, Mega, and Hangers.
Breaker's Delight won't be included in this format.
It’s not perfect, but it’s the cleanest baseline we’ve got right now. I will be attaching an editable spreadsheet to my Substack if you'd like to keep up with values as prices change.
$/card:
1) Hangers- $1.00
2) Value boxes- $1.43
3) Megas- $1.67
4) Fanatics Megas- $1.90
$/parallel:
1) Fanatics Megas- $4.71
Tie-
2) Value- $5.00
2) Mega- $5.00
2) Hanger- $5.00
$/auto:
1) Jumbo- $350
2) Hobby- $400
3) Fanatics Mega- $432
4) Hangers- $580
$/# card:
1) Jumbo- $106.06
2) Hobby- $110.80
3) Megas- $122.50
4) Fanatics Megas- $128
Best formats:
At drop pricing, for autos Jumbo is a clear winner, followed by Hobby.
Once those reach $800+ for Hobby & $1,400+ for Jumbo, as in about 5 minutes after they drop, then Fanatics Megas end up being the cheapest way to pull autos. Unfortunately, the most desirable autos are only in Hobby formats, and as I mentioned earlier, so are the best inserts.
However, it's not all doom and gloom. Even at drop pricing, Megas are the best format across the board for parallels, including Rookies and Image Variations.
As we saw with NBA Chrome, even retail formats can catch fire eventually. But since these are actually cheaper than those, they'll likely disappear from shelves quicker.
If I'm ranking retail formats for overall value, it's:
1) Fanatics Megas
2) Megas
3) Hangers
4) Value Boxes
For all my Hanger die hards who are in denial like me, allow me to include one more metric to drive home the fact that hangers are not the bangers they were with NBA Chrome.
For NBA Chrome Hangers, I created a little metric I like to call "Quality Hits". It involved evaluating the density of lower numbered parallels, inserts, and autos. A detailed description can be found on my end-of-year analysis from January. What this did is allowed me to measure the strength of "Quality Hits" in a format in relation to the spend. For context, with NBA Chrome Hangers, you could expect a Quality Hit to fall 1 in every 6.75 Hangers.
In NFL Chrome, that number is 1 in 22.1 Hangers. Meaning you have to rip 3× as many to get a low-numbered quality hit. If you're ripping, Megas are a safer play than Hangers.
Hobby vs. Retail:
Since secondary pricing is already absurd for Hobby formats, it's very valid to analyze what can actually be pulled from retail. I've already seen many comments that nothing of value can be pulled from retail. However, I have to disagree with that to an extent.
Here are desirable chases that CAN ONLY be pulled from Hobby formats- Team Camo Variation, Game Genies, Tecmo Inserts or Autos, Kaiju, Radiating Rookies, Chrome Etch Variation, 1990 Topps Autos, Chromographs, Future Stars Autos, Legends Autos, Hall of Chrome Autos, Dual Autos, Rookie Patch Autos
These can be pulled from BOTH Hobby & Retail formats- Helix, Let's Go!, Ultraviolet, Lightning Leaders, Shadow Etch, Rookie Variation Autos, Base Variation Autos
And these can ONLY be pulled from Retail formats- Lightboard Logo, Fanatical, Urban Legends, Retail Rookie Autos, First Year Fabric, Rookie Relics
Retail is definitely going to be a tougher path to massive hits.
My favorite new addition, Kaiju (think old-school Japanese monsters like Godzilla & Mothra), is going to be wildly popular. Naturally, you won’t find them in retail. Same story with Tecmo, which already has a cult following. Hobby formats only. The Bo Jackson auto in that subset is going to slap.
That said, retail isn’t a wasteland by any stretch. There are still plenty of desirable inserts and parallels to chase. And if you’re accustomed to Panini retail, just know Topps tends to run laps around that experience.
What's Missing?
Curiously, this absolute unit of an odds sheet left out a couple of pivotal subsets. The 5-card NFL Honors Gold Shield Autos and the 98-subject Rookie Premiere Patch Autos. You know…just the biggest chases in the entire product.
This is usually where I break down how many of those land in each format. Normally, that means a heavy concentration in Breaker’s, Hobby, and Jumbo, with a few scraps tossed into retail.
Not this time.
Unless Topps decides to update the odds sheet, there’s nothing to break down, which is frustrating.
One more omission that everyone probably expected, but still stings. No Mahomes autos.
As a Chiefs season ticket holder, that one hurts. Panini still has him locked up. We’ve got roughly 745 signers in this product, and somehow the one I actually want isn’t one of them. Hopefully that changes soon. Because the Panini products that do include him? One is priced higher than an actual rookie auto, and the other is a dumpster fire that advertises autos, but not really.
What Would the Squatch Do?
Is this stuff overpriced? Absolutely.
Does that matter? Not really.
We currently have way worse recent Panini NFL products going for more than what these will in early secondary pricing. That will correct sooner than later though.
If you somehow dodge the odds and land Hobby or Jumbo through EQL, that’s free money. I’ll be right there with you, submitting my entry and preparing to take the usual L. If you hit, it’s an easy flip. Or better yet, stash it and let time do the work.
As for ripping it?
Not for me. Lighting money on fire does not give me joy. But if that's you, no judgment. Hobby how you hobby.
Just understand what you’re signing up for. A lot of these boxes are going to hurt. Especially if you’re paying secondary market prices.
As for retail, I learned my lesson from NBA Chrome. As much as I hated the pricing, I should have bought every box I saw in the wild, and there were thousands of them.
With this, if I see it, I’m buying it. For me, the plan is simple. Accumulate. Marinate. Re-evaluate when the supply tightens.
I definitely want to be part of the circus. You just won't catch me ripping any of it. All sealed and singles for me.
Print Runs:
Base- ~157,685 ea
Base Rookies- ~116,535 ea
Unnumbered Parallels:
Refractor- ~19,750 ea
Xfractor- ~8,070 ea
Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,035 ea
Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,615 ea
Raywave- ~6,420 ea
Red, White & Blue- ~3,210 ea
Football Leather- ~3,210 ea
Prism- ~1,210 ea
Geometric- ~65 ea
Topps Refractor- ~1,000 ea
Pulsar- ~8,970 ea
Team Camo- ~82 ea
Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Rookie Refractor- ~28,710 ea
Rookie Xfractor- ~9,680 ea
Rookie Hot Pink Xfractor- ~4,840 ea
Rookie Lime Green Xfractor- ~1,730 ea
Rookie Raywave- ~6,880 ea
Rookie Red, White & Blue- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Football Leather- ~3,440 ea
Rookie Prism- ~1,330 ea
Rookie Geometric- ~380 ea
Rookie Topps Refractor- ~525 ea
Rookie Pulsar- ~9,830 ea
Rookie Team Camo- ~82 ea
Rookie Lightboard Logo- ~220 ea
Image Variation- ~975 ea
Rookie Image Variation- ~975 ea
Chrome Base Etch Variation- ~90 ea
Chrome Rookies Etch- ~90 ea
Inserts:
Radiating Rookies (20 card CL)- ~265
Shadow Etch (30 card CL0- ~265
1975 Topps (35 card CL)- ~36,470
1975 Topps Refractor- ~16,855
1975 Topps Xfractor- ~3,550
Future Stars (25 card CL)- ~37,520
Future Stars Refractor- ~17,000
Future Stars Xfractor- ~3,520
Power Players (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Power Players Refractor- ~17,110
Power Players Xfractos- ~3,560
All-Chrome Team (25 card CL)- ~37,520
All-Chrome Team Refractor- ~17,000
All-Chrome Team Xfractor- ~3,520
Fortune 15 (35 card CL)- ~36,470
Fortune 15 Refractor- ~16,855
Fortune 15 Xfractor- ~3,550
Legends of the Gridiron (40 card CL)- ~37,935
Legends of the Gridiron Refractor- ~17,110
Legends of the Gridiron Xfractor- ~3,560
Helix (30 card CL)- ~100
Game Genies (25 card CL)- ~200
Tecmo (23 card CL)- ~210
Kaiju (10 card CL)- ~200
Let's Go! (5 card CL)- ~45
Ultraviolet (20 card CL)- ~625
Lightning Leaders (20 card CL)- ~620
Fanatical (30 card CL)- ~430
Urban Legends (30 card CL)- ~430
Unnumbered Autos:
Rookie Variation Autos (94 card CL)- ~615 ea
Retail Rookie Autos (38 card CL)- ~125 ea
Rookie Patch Autos (38 card CL)- ~205 ea
Relics:
First Year Fabric (19 card CL)- ~2,630 ea
Rookie Relics (38 card CL)- ~2,625 ea
#thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2025ToppsChromeNFL
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@CardPurchaser Am I tripping or wasn’t this a panini brand lol
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So the wife and I went to Costco today 🤯 I think I’m still shaking as I type this @CardPurchaser
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2026 Topps Chrome Certified Autograph Refractor Auto /25
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@CaptainCons As someone who has lived in Laguna Beach CA for 36 years, this architecture hits so hard. We have new modern or old coastal cottage with no in between. I’d take this northeastern beauty 7 days a week.
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The sort of architecture that adds a ton of character and is completely absent from modern houses
Hamilton 🇺🇸@Watchman_motto
Two story sun porch. For when a single sun porch is just not quite enough. 10/10 would drink a Paloma on the second level with my friends. Perfect for card/game night.
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@CaptainCons 😂 it’s wild they post it with such confidence. Should be a law that an AI image must have a small watermark somewhere in the photo.
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@shubhampatilsd Just curious why you avoided the most beautiful part of the ride? PCH, leaving Laguna Beach into crystal cove is postcard worthy.
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this friday, i biked 137 miles from san diego to north los angeles on a $80 bike i bought off craigslist
no prior training or prep. my best use of free will so far
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@CaptainCons We tried them too with our first son. First kid always gets the fancy stuff. Absolutely horrible and with that price tag they should be in jail. Huggies mega box from Costco is the way.
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@AaronDerek @BlutmanMark Explain why he’s a dweeb. You don’t have to agree with everything your party does. He’s using our tax money to better his image in preparation of running for president. As a CA taxpayer, I would like that money to go elsewhere. You would bash Desantis if he was doing the same.
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What an absolute loser and embarrassment to our State. Newsom can’t even find a Cali based firm to do this work. The irony of going to a firm out of State to boost perception of your State is such an egregious misstep. But you all about failure Gov.
California Post@californiapost
Gavin Newsom to spend $19M in taxpayer funds on New York PR firm to polish California's image trib.al/QW1Lg1D
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Sure woulda been nice to get credit on this post 😂
Reginald Beanstalk@ReggieHoggedUp
I’m sorry baseball purists but PNC Park absolutely mogs Fenway or Wrigley
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