Timothy Ash
39.3K posts
Timothy Ash
@tashecon
Economist, covering Emerging Europe, Middle East and Africa. Key focus on Ukraine, Russia and Turkey, amongst others. Tweets represent my personal views. LUFC.
City of London, London Katılım Nisan 2016
786 Takip Edilen113.7K Takipçiler
It would be nice if the U.S., Israel and their allies stopped killing Muslims during Eid, and beyond.
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Wondering if the reason Trump did not do the logical thing and go after Cuba after Venezuela was not to gift the 28 elections to Rubio and to keep the Trump clan in play for that year.
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The silver lining is while Russia has seen oil revenues boosted due to the Iran war the collapse in gold prices is killing them. The CBR benefitted from a $200bn valuation windfall on gold reserves since the full scale invasion.
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What equity market reaction (S&P) will force Trump to TACO and cut a deal with Iran?
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Timothy Ash retweetledi
Wondering are we in Lettuce vs Trump mode. Does anyone on the GOP have the guts, decency to call a halt to all this insanity?
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Timothy Ash retweetledi
It kind of is. Markets in boiling frog mode as systemic risks mount. Meanwhile, Trump has zero clue what he is doing.
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Timothy Ash retweetledi
Iran is escalating on its own terms while the U.S.-Israel campaign drifts without a clear endgame, writes @citrinowicz
Iran's regime is intact
US allies are diverging.
No strategy. No visible exit ramp.
DISASTER
#IranWar #Geopolitics #Strategy #OilMarkets #Hormuz #GlobalRisk
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz
A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar
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Literally insane - US bankrolling its enemies. The lunatics have literally taken over the asylum.
Ben Rhodes@brhodes
3 weeks into the war and Trump is lifting sanctions on Iran and Russia and enraged Gulf, European and Asian allies. Real strategic genius at work.
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Timothy Ash retweetledi
3 weeks into the war and Trump is lifting sanctions on Iran and Russia and enraged Gulf, European and Asian allies. Real strategic genius at work.
Javier Blas@JavierBlas
Well, I did not anticipate this: *BESSENT: US MAY UNSANCTION IRANIAN OIL THAT’S ON WATER
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At Scandi conference where buzz word is building “resilience” in portfolios. Good luck with that in current global context. Titanic’s resilience was having five bulkhead defence - but that suggests one need to plan for the unthinkable always.
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So then oil prices go higher.
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks
Brent is at $115. As oil prices rise, the risk of a Trump TACO also rises. That in turn depends on dysfunction in global markets. At the moment, even with Brent up 70% from a month ago, markets are looking reasonably ok. A Trump TACO is NOT imminent... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-bad-is-t…
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Trump lied - what a surprise
Megatron@Megatron_ron
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Tucker: "Was Iran about to get a nuke?" Kent: "No. They've had a religious ruling against it since 2004. We had no intelligence that it was being disobeyed." So the entire war was another Iraq and weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist.
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