@aleabitoreddit @CoastalInvstmnt I want to get out but don’t want to sell for a loss…
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Imverymad
32 posts
@CoastalInvstmnt I don’t have any open positions in $IREN. Just sharing my thoughts on X
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I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN.
Imagine getting close to half the market cap…
~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally…
then still being bullish?
If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD.
Because you care more about a company over your own portfolio returns.
You’re in the special $AMC bagholding territory.
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@aleabitoreddit @fakeboycarti Great DD on WSB gets downvoted to oblivion while retarded idiot ideas go viral.
That place has been cooked ever since hedge funds realized it was dangerous to them back with GME
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@fakeboycarti The whole comment section was negative lol. Got downvoted to oblivion for posting the thesis on $AXTI
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$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69.
Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months…
Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming.
As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes.
Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes.
Lot of these bottlenecks can’t be valued with traditional metrics.
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@aleabitoreddit x.com/suburbandrone?…
This idiot pissed me off all the time with his charts idk why i still look
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It’s infuriating that so many people capitulated their positions.
Because of X influencer doomposters who are now pretending to be bullish on $MU or $EWY.
Or Bank Analysts who have 0 clue what they’re talking about.
99.9% of this place was bearish and posted:
- “KOPSI Crash”
- “Memory charts look like Silver?”
Or something along the lines of
“Helium/LNG/Oil” on the way down.
But now that $SNDK and memory names are ATH (or getting close), everyone is now pretending to have been bullish all long.
The vast, vast majority of X are extreme noise.
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@kk_capital @Citrini7 Has time to post about Mr. beast but not TIC apparently
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I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.
My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.
Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:
I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.
Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it.
And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries)
From my forward est:
2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x
(Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit)
The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet.
So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections.
Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain.
But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations.
I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.
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How does a random person posting their thoughts on a multi billion dollar company $SOI …
Send it up 20%
Am I that powerful now?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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@aleabitoreddit Sorry about these people very mad at you. Could I please ask you to clarify though? Do you think IREN will fail? Or just underperformed competition yet still go up in value?
Trying to decide to hold for breakeven @ 55 run away now
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$NBIS vs. $IREN.
The difference is night and day.
Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float
Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum
Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing.
One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.
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Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure.
$NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture.
~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations)
Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status)
Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1.
I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet)
This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week.
I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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If you can make $1000 trading, you can make $1 million.
- The process is identical
- The patience is identical
- The discipline is identical
The only difference is time and position size.
Keep going.
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Two rising channels on $BTC in a row.
The first led to a -30% dump
Now the second one is hitting, and sentiment flipped, X dudes is bullish, shorts got wiped
Bull trap, then more downside incoming
Leshka.eth ⛩@leshka_eth
$BTC MIRRORING 2022 COLLAPSE
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@aleabitoreddit @yianisz Are you interested in premarket on Monday? Or waiting for open?
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Monday could make history.
As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold.
> Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large)
> expecting 0 revenue growth
> betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company
All in one day:
> $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped.
> Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again.
> All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime.
> $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava
> Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted.
Likely 0 people expected this.
Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted.
I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story.
The two likely scenarios:
1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday
It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure.
2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve.
Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration.
I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads.
Could be history in the making.
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$MRVL released earnings. From transcript:
Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue.
$POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source).
Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment
-> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027.
For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028.
Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines.
But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines.
And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too.
Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry:
Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue.
I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET.
It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR.
But regardless:
Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year.
Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.
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@aleabitoreddit Legend keep it up man. I’m learning so much from you everyday. I appreciate it deeply
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Holy… How goated was this $EWY IV trade?
The South Korean Index volatility went from 32% -> 51% since posting 3 weeks ago.
I’m not as impressed if $AAOI doubles but this call on South Korea’s volatility was legendary.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel: Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models. $EWY long options seem mispriced. This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix). The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV. Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est). But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV. I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile. As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean. But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV). Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index. And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU. You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term. TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile. They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data. Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years
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@jukan05 Jensen, remind retail again: Groq / SRAM is built to accelerate lightweight models.
As parameters and context scale up, both speed, energy efficiency, and cost all become inferior to HBM.
tomshardware.com/tech-industry/…
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@DonationInbox @DeItaone When someone tells you NVIDIA is
"expensive," ask them: expensive relative to what? A company that just closed a quarter in which, annualised, it will generate enough free cash in a single year to buy Goldman Sachs in two…
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@aleabitoreddit Am I trouble here. Do I need to get out ? I know there’s no crystal ball..
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Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix:
This looks like a clear buying opportunity.
Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts.
AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs.
The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex.
Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply.
Results:
-> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46%
-> Asian Spot LNG: + 39%
-> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine)
The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG.
Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix.
Sending
-> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%.
-> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%.
and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today.
Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses.
In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity.
The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix.
This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time.
In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash.
However, 2026 is completely different:
Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn:
AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix.
Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance.
There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028.
Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time.
Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain.
Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling.
As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from:
Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung
2026: ~$182.0B USD vs. ~$210.8B USD
2027: ~$235.1B USD vs. ~$333.7B USD
Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix:
2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD
2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD
The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments.
But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill:
This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high.
People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix.
The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.
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