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Just woke up, good vibes, whole day free to grind prediction markets
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Ted Castle
128 posts
Ted Castle
@tedcastle22
motivated @polymarket and I just love Shrek...
Katılım Şubat 2023
338 Takip Edilen149 Takipçiler
🚨 NEW POLYMARKET: Will Trump dance during the White House Easter Egg Roll? polymarket.com/event/will-tru…
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🚨: Trading bot update
Scaling my entries as promised.
The bot is still profitable, but I am monitoring it closely.
If the trend starts shifting, I pause it and adjust the parameters.
(or wait for a stronger uptrend, that’s way easier).
So far, it’s compounding well by entering in the final minute.
You can copy this strategy to your own bot in one click: [t.me/TradePolyBot?s…]
More opportunities are showing up every day in prediction markets.
Don’t miss out.
Dexter's Lab@DextersSolab
Polymarket bots make $100k each month. They already extracted $25M from prediction markets. Good news? You can build the same one thanks to one tool. This bot is trading crypto Up/Down markets automatically. Link: [t.me/TradePolyBot?s…] However you have to set it up correctly. I spent 10 days trying different strategies. This one has doubled my bankroll in ~72 hours: 5m all markets > enter at 85¢ > TP at resolution, SL at 65¢ > slippage 10% Crucial part: adjust entry window to entry after 280s into the cycle so only 20s are left. This bot started trading $BTC markets just 3 weeks ago. Current PnL? +$590k clean. His wallet: [@0xde17f7144fbd0eddb2679132c10ff5e74b120988-1772205225932?r=dexterslab#ZUDvuSD" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0xde17f7144fb…
] Perfect example of how automated trading beats manual execution. Probably a game changer for 2026. Use the edge while it's still possible. English
At 3:00 PM, Israel and the US conducted a large-scale attack on multiple Iranian cities, including Tehran.
As a result, traders on Polymarket started panic selling and panic buying shares, causing the YES price to increase by around 500%.
It started slowly, then larger wallets began selling, and at 3:51 PM we peaked at 44%.
I managed to buy $15,000 worth of cheap NO shares, as I was monitoring the situation live, and to me it looked like every other attack.
About 5 minutes later the price collapsed to its original price.
I don’t know why people thought they were invading Tehran, but that’s the fog of war for you!
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I’m steadily building my position in @River4fun and the progress is becoming more visible each day.
Right now my points are still low, but what matters is the consistent upward trend.
It’s only day 4 with @RiverdotInc
There are 33 days ahead to accumulate enough points.
If you stay persistent, reaching the top is realistic.
Consistency is everything, especially with $RIVER
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While the crowd is distracted
we’re extracting pure alpha from Elon’s timeline
Started with $100 and banked a clean +$19.10 profit in just 2.5 hours
The process was surgical:
out of 3 potential markets
we skipped one and opened 3 precise positions on the remaining two
This is the new meta of Polymarket using tweet velocity and structural math to find an edge where others only see gambling
Below is the full breakdown of how this strategy works and why systematic execution beats luck every time
RetroChainer@RetroChainer
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@Atenov_D @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @charliwtquirks @Damsias0 @ContextVector @zmb_bllbry_mffn @dosan888 @KrRyMa @jbfly46 @xaitoshi_ this raises a key question about balancing predictability and innovation in ai
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Most AI-generated ideas are boring by design. Here's the architecture that isnt.
Ask a base LLM to generate ideas and it returns the most statistically probable ones.
That's not a bug - thats how language models work. They predict what's next based on what already exists.
To get genuinely novel ideas, you need a system that finds what's missing. Not what's likely.
> Three tools, one pipeline.
Obsidian - personal knowledge base. Local Markdown files, your ideas and research.
InfraNodus - knowledge graph engine.
Converts text into concept maps and identifies "content gaps" - missing links between ideas, underrepresented themes.
OpenClaw - the agent. Reads Obsidian, queries InfraNodus via MCP server, scans external PDFs, saves insights back to the graph.
> How it runs.
Agent scans my notes on a specific topic - say, HRV measurement and extracts key concepts. InfraNodus maps them as a graph.
Not to show what I know. To show what's missing.
That gap becomes the next prompt: "Find papers in my external folder that address this connection"
Agent returns candidates. I manually pick one or two critical documents and tell it to extract only those. Focused input, focused output.
Result saves back to Obsidian as a new graph.
> Two problems worth knowing.
Security: agents with file access can reach everything - passwords, wallets. I restrict access to specific folders only and require manual confirmation before every terminal command.
Context loss - OpenClaw sometimes drops conversation history mid-session. Fix - run a parallel request to save current insights immediately, before the long task finishes.
Slow sometimes. The ideas it surfaces don't exist anywhere else in your notes.
Bookmark this. A few hours to set up. Compounds for years.
Atenov int.@Atenov_D
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I stopped getting AI slop. I built a system that knows how I think.
Generic AI output is a symptom of generic input. No context about your projects, your style, your priorities. Every response is averaged internet - confident, bland, useless.
The fix isnt a better model. Its a better memory.
> Why Obsidian and not Notion.
Local Markdown files. Any AI agent reads and edits them directly - no paid API, no cloud subscription. The data stays on your machine.
And the plugin ecosystem is enormous.
Four plugins that run the base.
Note Companion AI - transcribes YouTube videos and podcasts into structured notes automatically.
Templater - reusable templates for recurring entries.
Terminal - runs the command line and the AI agent directly inside Obsidian.
Excalidraw - visual diagrams and connection maps.
> The autonomous setup.
Clean Mac Mini, isolated environment. Node.js and Claude Code installed. One prompt generated the entire folder structure - Inbox, Daily, Projects, Archive - with all connections between them.
Then I set up OpenClaw and created a Telegram bot called Glados. Now it's the bridge between my phone and my computer. Driving, hands-free voice message - the idea lands in the right Obsidian folder automatically.
The personalization layer - three files that kill the slop.
context.md - who I am, my projects, my daily rhythm, my interests.
voice.md - I exported my best Telegram posts and fed them to the AI. It copied my writing style exactly.
kill_list.md - words, phrases, and patterns the AI must never use. This file is why the output doesnt read like a chatbot.
> What the system actually does.
Every Sunday /week runs automatically - the bot scans all projects and completed tasks, compares them against the plan, and generates a full weekly report with pulled deadlines.
Before any meeting - 30 seconds to pull every past agreement with that person from the base.
New idea today that connects to a note from two months ago - the system finds it. You dont.
The longer you use it, the smarter it gets. That's the only compounding that matters.
Aleksei.mry🐈⬛@avradchikov
Most people let AI write in their second brain. Thats how you lose your mind. AI generates text based on other people's thoughts. Let it into your main note vault and you'll slowly replace your voice with averaged internet output. > Your most valuable asset - how you actually think - disappears quietly. There's also a privacy problem. Standard ChatGPT trains on your data. Your thoughts become someone else's training set. Here's the barrier I built. The isolated zone principle. Two separate vaults. One is mine - Ideaverse, my main knowledge base. AI never touches it directly. The second vault is for AI output only. Everything the agent generates lands there. I move things to my main base manually, only after reading them, only if they're actually worth keeping. That friction is intentional. Its the filter between thinking and consuming. The technical setup. Claude Code runs locally via terminal inside the Obsidian folder. Direct file access, no cloud training on my data. One rule before every session: backup the vault first. > Three things I actually use it for. Diary analysis: "Analyze all my notes from the last 45 days". The agent scans every file and returns a 1,000-word report - main focus areas, emotional patterns, hidden business insights. Concept mapping: I asked it to find every mention of "ideaverse" across my base. It found 2,000+ references and assembled them into one structured table from my own scattered thoughts. Metadata automation: "Go into my people folder. Find a photo for each person online and insert the link into their metadata field". Runs autonomously across dozens of files. I never open a single one. - Obsidian's CEO agrees. No native AI in Obsidian. Not on the roadmap. If it ever ships, it must be fully private - end-to-end encrypted, zero training on user data. Your thinking space should stay yours.
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@Atenov_D @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @xaitoshi_ @dizpers @heymike777 @zeroxjohn @webz2222 @jcooperstation @heysidoku Normally this kind of task requires significant manual effort
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My bookmark graveyard is now a @Polymarket research engine. Here's the pipeline.
> Hundreds of saved videos, articles, and PDF reports. Macro analysis, political forecasts, expert interviews. None of it ever got read.
The information existed - the time to process it didn't.
Three free tools fixed this. Zero manual work after setup.
The stack:
NotebookLM - the analyst. Processes up to 50 heavy sources simultaneously: YouTube videos, articles, PDF reports. Finds patterns across all of them at once.
Claude Code - the conductor. Runs in terminal, talks to NotebookLM, parses the output, and manages files. The bridge between research and storage.
Obsidian - the vault. Local Markdown files, free, private. Builds a knowledge graph - a visual map of how ideas connect.
> The setup takes one session.
Create an Obsidian folder with a clear project structure. Point Claude Code at that folder and define the rules: how to create files, how to link them, what format to follow.
Install the NotebookLM MCP server via terminal. Write skills - reusable instructions so you never type long prompts manually again.
One afternoon. Runs forever after.
> How I use it for @Polymarket
I want to research an upcoming election or macro event. I dump every relevant YouTube video, analyst PDF, and expert article into a NotebookLM notebook.
One command to Claude Code: "Study the notebook. Extract key scenarios, patterns, and probabilities - if X happens, then Y follows"
The agent queries NotebookLM, pulls the substance, and automatically creates dozens of linked Markdown files in Obsidian.
Scenarios, actor profiles, probability ranges - all structured, all connected.
Obsidian builds the graph. I see non-obvious connections: how risk in one area cascades into markets in another. Thematic baskets form automatically.
> The result
When I open Polymarket now, I'm not reacting to Twitter noise. I'm cross-referencing crowd probabilities against structured scenarios my agent built from 40 sources I never had time to read manually.
The bookmarks arent a graveyard anymore. They're the research department.
Atenov int.@Atenov_D
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I bet $100 on Polymarket and won $156
Thanks, Vitality 👊 Keep winning, and I’ll make a lot of money
Ted Castle@tedcastle22
Vitality WILL take BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 - I’m all in I’m with the crowd on this one - Vitality legit look like the strongest Counter-Strike team ever rn. No real competition I've watched every match and every map of the current tournament, and I can say one thing - THEY'RE ALL THE BEST IN THE WORLD. No weak players, no mistakes, no tilt, JUST perfect synergy. Only squad that might give them a fight is PARIVISION. Feels like they’re the only ones who could make finals and maybe get revenge for that insane ZywOo 1v5 on Inferno (see video) Still, I’m backing Vitality $100 on Vitality to win BLAST on Polymarket -> #pViLYNp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/blast-op…
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How to farm passive income on Polymarket
A few days ago, Polymarket rolled out a public referral program - meaning you can now earn off other people’s volume + farm $POLY airdrop odds at the same time
How to get your ref link:
1. Go to Polymarket at polymarket.com/?r=tedcastle
2. Create an account
3. Generate $10,000 in trading volume on the highest-volume pairs. Buy via limit orders, sell via market orders. For example, here: #LYPjZDo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/democrat…
4. You’ll be able to create your own referral link
After that, it’s simple - bring people in and clip a % of their volume.
Quick math:
Got ~200 refs doing $100/day each -> that’s roughly $20/day passive
1000 refs -> 200$/day
If you bring in a major player, it will change your life
No cap on referrals, no cap on commissions
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@cryptof4ck What does manipulation entail? If you have a $600,000 position, are you really not going to spend $40,000-$50,000 to prop up the price? A leaky stock market cup on Backpack
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The Largest Manipulation in Polymarket's History
Thousands of traders were fooled.
The market is asking, “Will Backpack's FDV exceed $200M one day after launch?”
With 10 minutes left in the event, the price is below 200M FDV, but the probability that the valuation will exceed 200M is still 90%. It seems traders feared manipulation and were right.
It all comes down to one trader: KKStone, who bet nearly $1M on 4 events and messed up big time.
In an attempt to salvage whatever he could, he likely tricked all the traders by buying up the order book on that shady exchange @Backpack and keeping the price above $0.20 to win the market.
Here’s his profile: @KKStone" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@KKStone
Immediately after the event ended, the price of the BP token plummeted, dropping more than 5% in 9 minutes.
Meanwhile, DexScreener and CoinMarketCap closed the candle at $0.1996, but the resolution will still be positive.
If this isn’t the biggest scam in Polymarket history, it’s definitely one of them
It would be great if @Andrey_10gwei could break down this case
cryptof4ck@cryptof4ck
I risked $428 to win $1663 Backpack launched BP yesterday, and the probability that FDV will be below $200M is severely underestimated My average entry price is 25.7c, and overnight the price jumped to 54c I’m holding until the end - this prediction will either make me rich or homeless Please pray for me
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Trump will meet with Chinese leader Xi in Beijing on May 14–15. Polymarket reacted immediately, rising 13%
If you have information, you have money
Market -> #pViLYNp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-tru…
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Vitality WILL take BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026 - I’m all in
I’m with the crowd on this one - Vitality legit look like the strongest Counter-Strike team ever rn. No real competition
I've watched every match and every map of the current tournament, and I can say one thing - THEY'RE ALL THE BEST IN THE WORLD. No weak players, no mistakes, no tilt, JUST perfect synergy.
Only squad that might give them a fight is PARIVISION. Feels like they’re the only ones who could make finals and maybe get revenge for that insane ZywOo 1v5 on Inferno (see video)
Still, I’m backing Vitality
$100 on Vitality to win BLAST on Polymarket -> #pViLYNp" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/blast-op…
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Was this a scam on Polymarket?
More and more people are getting salty over how the “Backpack FDV > $200M 1 day after TGE” market got resolved
market -> #LYPjZDo" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/backpack…
Rules said 4PM ET snapshot, but never clarified which exchange
At the same time, Armani stated that Backpack spot would be the main (and basically only) market for $BP trading
So yeah - all those Bybit/KuCoin perps? Irrelevant
Now here’s where it gets interesting:
Right before the cutoff, whales were slamming size around $0.20 just minutes before the snapshot - clearly trying to hold the line
People started calling out price manipulation, and Backpack even dropped a response (ironically their only post after that messy TGE)
But let’s be real - if someone’s sitting on a $500K position, is it really that crazy to spend a bit extra to defend the level?
KKStone is still a mystery, but it definitely feels like he put in serious effort (and capital) to keep price pinned at $0.20
End of the day:
Polymarket played it by the book 👍
If there was any “scam” here, it didn’t come from the market
It came from Backpack itself, and the ones who got burned were its own users 😂😂
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