terps

$4 to $1000 today on atlanta weather on @Polymarket would love to say i had an edge but was moreso luck on a hunch after a painful mistake a few days ago noticed temps were locked at 57 right before rain expected to start, threw out a small limit order with no expectation for it to get filled since projected high at the time was 63f. rain ended up killing all daytime heating, leaving 57f as the high luckily someone tried bonding early, the exact same way i lost $1200 earlier this week on the same exact market lol learned from my mistake and took my $1000 back 🤝

@imparkerburton can you yank the steph tag off

I found the Fitbit air

@de1lymoon got burned badly once trying to do this now i hunt for mispriced odds around 20-30c and size in around 95c after max temp is locked

When i am realizing: > Open Polymarket > Deposit $100 > Open weather markets > Find buckets the market still prices at 88-93¢ > Buy YES → wait → resolve $1.00 > Risk $0.92 to make $0.08 > Repeat this 10x time = made a $1000 That's a 7-11% return in 24 hours on a bet the model already settled Why don't people do that yet?

@0xKiyoro on my way there running it up on atlanta weather markets 💨

$24,931 in profit from betting exclusively on London weather temperatures on Polymarket. 1,516 predictions since April 2025. Biggest single win was $8,984. The profile has 45,500 views from people trying to figure out how he does it. The approach is simple: buy YES only when implied probability is below 10 to 15 cents, buy NO only when the crowd pushes it above 40 to 50 cents, never oversize. Weather markets reprice slowly and that gap is where all the money comes from. Wrong price plus right model is all it takes. Profile: polymarket.com/profile/%400xf…

hey @Apple you should repurpose the ipod nano design into pocket siri devices connected to openclaw would easily pay $500 for one

update 2 months later - wild how closely btc stuck to green line for support, only to get rejected at 100MA so damn cleanly revived an old line from 2019 at the bottom for a hopium sanity check pray the 2nd green line holds. would expect that battle to play out sometime in Q2

@Param_eth claude i don’t know what this means can you just take care of it thanks

Vibe coders are confused by: - npm install - npm run dev - http://localhost:3000/

@CarOnPolymarket say less 🫡

In Sweden there's this tradition of building a giant straw goat every year since 1966. It is famous because vandals try to burn it down almost every year. Recently, a fresh Polymarket user has started buying YES and can win $50,000 if it's set on fire. Now check that username

@RookeBrollins @Polymarket @shayne_coplan wild. there have been several times i assumed i fat fingered but now i’ll be double checking each time

So apparently the @Polymarket orderbook glitched, "crossed the spread" and brought the opposite side (I clicked Grizzlies, it gave me worthless Bucks shares instead, essentially taking 50k away from me out of thin air. This is absolutely not acceptable. @shayne_coplan

@saurav_tweets @Polymarket me after sizing in uncomfortably

traders before making a prediction on @Polymarket

Now everyone suddenly started writing their own @Polymarket bots and posting code screenshots everywhere Honestly it looks like McDonald’s dropped a new toy and everyone ran to buy it at the same time You always have to remember: if everyone is doing the same thing at once, you won’t be able to make money from it anymore You have to search for alpha, there’s no other way. Especially in such market conditions

@money_cruncher so to qualify, you need to be making under $100k AND somehow have it make sense to finance a brand new car, which averages $45k lol

🚨BREAKING: The IRS clarified how a $10,000 car interest write off actually works. If you have a car, you need to know this to lower your tax bill in 2025. Here's how it works (and who actually qualifies):

RIP CDC updated to 2012 total cases today only hope now is that holiday backlogs (12/24 and 12/26 being federal holidays this year) cause delays in CDC reporting next week

nvm i’m fucked this is who i’m trading against here

been adding to this bet and brought my average down a decent bit. kinda risky before CDC pushes out this week’s numbers but feeling confident on this one JHU updated their count today to 2001, up from 1974 on 12/19. CDC numbers typically lag JHU by about 5 days, typically more during the holidays but that could be different given the recent rise in cases. i’m thinking JHU reports around 2030 on friday, and that’s close to what CDC will report on 12/30 hoping that the holidays slows down the reporting process since the polymarket rules are based on the count at 11:59pm et on 12/31

here are my (gpt’s) estimates on CDC reported measles cases - assuming reporting continues as normal into the holidays, or if no reporting this week, there will be probably a big dump on 29th or 30th considering cases have been spreading conservative - 1,990 most likely - 2,015 aggressive - 2,040 CORI just reported total cases at 2,005 about an hour ago, though they typically run a few days ahead of CDC anyways. fwiw, CORI isn’t updating their dashboard until jan 5th i think CDC will update this week with about ~1,980 cases (johns hopkins at 1,974 as of dec 19) and will update just before the end of the year with about 2,015-2,020 cases wish i got a better fill on polymarket but oh well. will see how this week’s report goes and adjust

@zacxbt @premojiapp riding no for 2050 let’s get it 🤝

found a measles market opportunity on @premojiapp prediction market alpha hub dec 16: 1,958 cases reported only 42 cases to go by eoy I consider this desci btw disclaimer: i built @premojiapp

@KyleDeWriter lighter fdv market will be very interesting to follow

making money out of retail's fomo has never been easier. Polymarket is proving it in live. - 118 projects came on tge this year. - 100 of them are now trading below tge valuation. - median token is -71% fdv from launch. majority of 2025 key projects were highly overvalued on pre-markets. we are not at the market of bulls, crypto in its majority is not a lifechange anymore. retail is suffering of fomo, still trying to get back to 2021 trenches. that's why there's still momentary misvalued odds on Polymarket. sure there's still goated projects and token releases, but I'm talking general stats. next time when you decide to predict your beloved project's fdv, try and take a look at those who gain profits by predicting reality, not expectations. pinned one of the most successful traders here: @filthyBera?via=kyledewriter" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@filthyBera?vi…

@Miharbi_88 @Polymarket yeah you know when i say out loud “polymarket is bribing the national weather service on a market with 30k volume” it actually makes sense thanks

@terps444 @Polymarket Probably betting companies bribing NWS as well to maximize their gain. If there are 63F multiple times a day it means daily maximum was 63 F .

$4 to $1000 today on atlanta weather on @Polymarket would love to say i had an edge but was moreso luck on a hunch after a painful mistake a few days ago noticed temps were locked at 57 right before rain expected to start, threw out a small limit order with no expectation for it to get filled since projected high at the time was 63f. rain ended up killing all daytime heating, leaving 57f as the high luckily someone tried bonding early, the exact same way i lost $1200 earlier this week on the same exact market lol learned from my mistake and took my $1000 back 🤝

@Miharbi_88 @Polymarket the resolution source uses METAR readings which is typically hourly (or half hourly for some markets) the screenshot you posted are the 5 min asos readings, which is not what the resolution source uses very important to read and understand the rules on polymarket

@terps444 @Polymarket Weather predictions are scam . Look at this in SF today . Temp hit 63F couple times but 62F is not paying out . They are scamming people by measuring their wife’s ass temperature and claiming it is actual weather . So either NwS lying or polymarket .