TGOD01

@BiotechObserver LOL I understand them much better than you think. And placebo controls have nothing to do with measuring absolute change in 6MWD in the active arm of a study.

@tgod01 I'm starting to suspect you dont understand how placebo controls work

$LQDA $INSM - In PH-ILD, TPIP showed a median NEGATIVE 6MWD vs baseline (-4m) at week 16 in its Phase 2 study. They reported net 30m gain in 6MWD vs placebo using Hodges-Lehmann estimate (basically the placebo arm was much more negative vs TPIP, hence the positive result), but the absolute change from baseline 6MWD was negative for the TPIP patients. -In Yutrepia's Ascent study, LQDA showed absolute change from baseline at a median +41m from baseline at 24 weeks. Which one would you want?

Correct. $LQDA's Ascent study measured absolute change in 6MWD which showed +41m improvement - at 24 weeks, Yutrepia patients could walk a median +41m further than they could at the beginning of the study. Conversely, TPIP showed -4m absolute change. The placebo arm in the TPIP effectively "saved" the study by having a very negative absolute change relative to TPIP's terrible -4m absolute change - so they could publish a "30m improvement" over placebo - when in fact, the patients couldn't even walk as far as they could at the beginning of the study. It's all smoke and mirrors.

@tgod01 ASCENT had no placebo control.

$LQDA $INSM cough comparison: - TPIP's Phase 2b (PAH population, placebo-controlled) showed HIGHER cough incidence (40.6% vs. 21.2% placebo) but mostly mild (>85%), with rare discontinuation (1.4%). - Yutrepia's ASCENT (PH-ILD, open-label) reported LOWER cough incidence (~18.5% treatment-related, 92% mild) and used an explicit cough score showing no worsening (stable ~1.3 mean), with 0% cough-related discontinuations. - With regard to $LQDA L606 - arguably a more direct comparison to TPIP - L606's open-label safety study showed MUCH LOWER cough incidence (~14.3%, all mild) and no discontinuations due to cough.

@joeyrattlesnake And note - this guy has likely never even attended a LQDA call, much less ever asked a question.

Mind you, the same guy who just "raised" $LQDA price target from $16 to $19, also just participated in $UTHR conference call and lobbed up this softball between gurgling their nuts. Wonder if he's on the payroll.

@TcheeseRa Andreas reminds me of the CDO "Manager" in The Big Short. Real solid gold a**hole.

$LQDA I give him credit for being an absolute d-bag.

$LQDA Updating my model with assumptions: - Post court ruling, steep ILD ramp - additional 500 patients/quarter (conservative) - 93% GM, expense growth 30% of rev $ growth (probably high) - full patient attrition after 21 mos -$1B+ run rate Q3 this year, $1.7B by end FY27

$LQDA Biggest takeaway from earnings release is the patient adds. The 350/month clip in patient adds is on the surface very bullish. But when coupled with the fact that so many doctors are still sitting on the sidelines in PH-ILD due to court overhang - the future bodes well.

$LQDA $UTHR more smoke and mirrors on the Cowen call today from UTHR's COO. RE: mist inhaler - when asked about studies to back claims, he made no mention of efficacy, ability to titrate to higher dose, studies to back these things up - you know - little things. And no studies involving actual PAH patients - only healthy subjects LOLOL Complete joke. Meanwhile COO says new mist inhaler will take current nebulizer sales to 0 and could take most of DPI market. 🤡🤡🤡 How anyone is buying into this heaping pile of odorous excrement is beyond me. Meanwhile in other news - $UTHR CEO Martine exercised options and sold 209k shares today to pocket a cool $105M. Nice.

@AnnaFlorcia @svix_enjoyoor @BDC_Analyst And by the time TPIP shows up (if it does) circa FY28-29, Yutrepia + L606 will be firmly entrenched and $LQDA will be at a $2.5-3 billion annual revenue run rate.

Orenitram is just oral trepostinil which has really bad GI effects. I see more people on PAH boards taking Uptravi even with its muscle and jaw pain. Payers are going to put everyone on generic Uptravi first and approve $LQDA Yutrepia + Winrevair, this will be the golden standard for most. 3-4 years from now it will be L606 and TPIP (If successful in Ph3) fighting it out. Even if TPIP is successful, patients will dictate if a once a day DPI is better than a twice a day nebulizer.

No 6MWD data from UTC, what a joke 😂 $LQDA TTCW is the horse they want to show FDA. Relanipeg is just a more potent (once a day vs twice a day) Uptravi which loses its patent this year. Generics of it will flood the market early next year. More potent (to make it a once a day) equals higher levels of side effects: Headache Ralinepag: 81.1% (vs. 41.5% placebo) Uptravi: 65% (vs. 32% placebo) → Higher incidence with ralinepag. Diarrhea Ralinepag: 58.3% (vs. 28.2% placebo) Uptravi: 42% (vs. 18% placebo) → Higher with ralinepag. Nausea Ralinepag: 45.1% (vs. 25.5% placebo) Uptravi: 33% (vs. 18% placebo) → Higher with ralinepag. Myalgia (Muscle Pain) Ralinepag: 36.0% (vs. 10.7% placebo) Uptravi: 16% (vs. 6% placebo) → Notably higher with ralinepag. Pain in Jaw Ralinepag: 35.7% (vs. 8.9% placebo) Uptravi: 26% (vs. 6% placebo) → Higher with ralinepag. Please tell me how it's going to make any money when Uptravi generic is better tolerate and much cheaper?

$LQDA $UTHR On UTHR earnings call at 20min mark, while reading through scripted talking points tied to LQDA competitive landscape - COO says "if trends continue, we'd expect a return to sequential revenue growth in Q2" -admitting Q1 will be sequentially lower again. All's well;)

$LQDA Some required listening from the UTHR earnings call-check out the responses from the 18:30 mark to the 22:00 mark. The level of shit shoveling from Martine and team is remarkable. How people buy into the misdirection and embellishment is beyond me. event.choruscall.com/mediaframe/web…

$LQDA man, it's shoot first and verify anything relevant later today. UTHR makes first mention they're working on a mist inhaler to address their self-admitted terrible cough scores, and we drop 10%? Typical hail mary move for them, so I guess we shouldnt be surprised. But for those saying this caps Liquidia in some way and are dumping - you guys are jumping to some major conclusions. I simply cant wait for LQDA management to tear this completely apart in their earnings call.

$LQDA with Tyvaso DPI posting essentially flat sales - this surprised all the folks in the long LQDA/short UTHR who were betting on a drop and are now having to unwind that trade. That's what we are seeing this morning. Temporary impact particularly for LQDA as they have their earnings announcement soon to tell their story. Tyvaso DPI may continue to hold its own somewhat in the PAH market - but keep your eye on the ball folks. PH-ILD will be LQDA's market. And as soon as the Judge gives the expected green light - it will be off to the races.

@MitchT42 A bit, yes - there are calcs underneath the revenue number that take this into consideration. ie it's not just number of patients times rev/script.

@tgod01 Did you account for first month is free?

$LQDA just laying out some numbers from my working model. All back of the napkin stuff, but it's hard to see us at anything less than $1B run rate by the end of FY26 assuming ~1k patient adds per quarter. This model sees $4.68 in EBTIDA for FY26; $10.77 in FY27.

@_Ceiv Good to see you and your overblown management critiques and cynicism again - you mark bottoms so well LOL Welcome back! Time to buy :)

$LQDA trading like it has a boat anchor tied to it. Likely option overhang being worked off. This kind of activity will not stop until we get a clean slate with the court ruling. Come on, Judge - let's get this thing done.