Thad
213 posts

Thad
@thadchomps
Markets, Memes, Politics





Thoma Bravo turned in the key on Medallia. $6.4B of equity wiped. It now carries $3B in debt against $200M of EBITDA. Blackstone had $1.5b of the debt across their nearly identical retail facing credit funds marked it most recently at 60.3c. It's now a zero. Credit @JulianKlymochko here. In Dec, BDCs had the following marks on their books: Apollo: 73¢ Monroe ( $MRCC): 77.57¢ Blackstone ( $XSL + $BCRED): 77.75¢ HPS: 77.99¢ FS KKR ( $FSK): 78.73¢ Onex: 79.20¢ Antares: 82.86¢ Blended BDC consensus: 77.80¢ on $1.97B of par. I had it at 55-60c. It's now equity. AND I'm generously giving it 5x EBITDA. Over 8 Billion was wiped. Poof. "And it's gone." If that is on Athene's balance sheet for 100M and rated BBB, the reserve just went from ~$1.6M to $30M. Medallia had no FCF (clearly). Still has EBITDA. ALL of this underwriting is done on adj. EBITDA coverage. There's MAYBE 200M liquidation value here. Of course, the 3B in debt was unrated by the S&P, Fitch, or Moodys. ------------------------- The following is possibly tangential but definitely relevant: 1/ $BCRED runs a separate middle-market private credit CLO series — the Delaware-only "MML" deals: BCRED CLO 2023-1, 2024-1, 2024-2, 2025-1 LLC. Those pools hold unitranche / direct lending paper. One of those is the likely home of Medallia paper BCRED has securitized. The $1.5 number I said they have exposure to may be low. Reminder, although Blackstone and chief salesman Jon Gray say that they only have 25-26% exposure to software, that's underreported. Most of business services and Healthcare IT is also software. When you include leverage that converts to 55-60%. % of NAV is the key. ^some of business services that is not software, but is still threatened by AI like accounting roll-ups. 2/ Thoma Bravo Credit ABS, is rated AAA/AA/A/BBB/BB by KBRA, 32 obligations, my audit sample includes Aprimo, Command Alkon, QAD -- all Thoma Bravo portfolio companies. The same firm originating the equity, the debt, the ABS, and the collateral management. Rated investment grade. Get ready for more.

Mamdani declaring war on Ken Griffin proves how obtuse, fanatical, or simply dumb he is. Citadel employs ~5,000 people in NYC. Mean compensation: ~$2M per Median: ~400K per If Griffin takes them to Miami, it would be catastrophic for the New Yorkers Mamdani claims to champion - bars, restaurants, small businesses, support jobs, etc... not to mention philanthropy, secondary/spillover spending, and the obvious tax revenue hit...



Hey @RealCandaceO Can you tell me more about “Battery Lane Trust?” Have you disclosed this trust in your lawsuit with the Macrons? Are you using this trust to hide assets so you can continue smearing people with your lies? I’m going to make sure the Macrons know about this Trust…











Clavicular influenced 60 Minutes interviewer to use "maxxing" and "mogging" terms mid interview 😭 60 Minutes: "would you say you're looks mogging me right now?" Clav: "you're just gigafar away on a laptop screen so I wouldn't be able to say"


a lot of these bums in basketball media need to apologize to Bronny James 🫵🏽














