TheAllocator

@AIExplainedYT Really enjoy your work. Would love to catch up on wider AI implications — is there a contact email or preferred route?

Anthropic: "We do not plan to make Claude Mythos Preview generally available" A big line, buried quite deep. Possible reasons? So many, inc: 1) The model is expensive (25/125), not far off GPT 4.5, which became commercially unviable. Less likely, given the claims about Mythos. 2) They genuinely are worried about unleashing cybersecurity choas on the world. 3) They don't have capacity to serve it at scale yet. 4) They will quickly distil the early access outputs of Mythos into a lighter model, so no need to release the bigger model when a more cost efficient one coming imminently. 5) Other. Not read the 250 page report yet, but will do.

@AnnieJacobsen Clear evidence that the US defence industry is being challenged on a cost benefit basis.

Yeesh👇 Iran War Showcases Strength of South Korean Defense Sector nytimes.com/2026/04/02/bus…

@sofius Not real.

Couldn’t agree more. At this point there is only one truly independent CB: the ECB - due to the fragmented EU political structure. CB independence has unfortunately always been an illusion. That said, we should support independence at each turn as political incentive structure for interest setting is too skewed to the downside.

Let Powell and the Fed do their jobs. mikebloom.bg/45SmoTC

@rickygervais Congrats!

So, we've had 30,000 new subscribers for our Dutch Barn mailing list over the weekend. I can't tell you how amazing that is. A huge Thank You from me and the donkeys ❤️ dutchbarn.com

@igorsushko Check this out for context: energyandcleanair.org/august-2025-mo…

President Trump: Europe needs to stop buying oil from Russia and then tougher joint sanctions can be applied against Russia together with the United States. 💡 Europe sent more money to Russia for oil & gas to fund the invasion of Ukraine than money & weapons sent to Ukraine.

@biancoresearch Would add that this is also due to a deterioration of USTs. In relative terms, IG spreads should tighten on this view as they may represent a diversified pool of capital with strong balance sheets... More interesting question: could spreads go negative?

2/3 Why? This relationship Corporate bonds and equities are both measures of corporate risk, so these two series should be aligned with each other.

1/3 *SAFEST US CORPORATE BOND SPREADS TRADE AT FRESH 27-YEAR LOW This chart Option-adjusted spreads take into account the possibility that they can be called away early. This ensures the Corporate/Treasury maturities are correct.

@robin_j_brooks Germany has a decent lead correlation to the rest. Should we take this as a positive or false signal?

Here's new export orders in today's "flash" release of the manufacturing PMIs for Jul '25. Remarkable thing is that tariffs seem to have done nothing to dent German new export orders (blue). The US also looks fine (red). France is very weak (black), but - well - that's France...

Argentina is easily the most interesting economic story of the decade. Would expect many politicians around the world will face challenges from similar political movements if @JMilei is successful across more than one election cycle. Plenty of countries need deep structural reforms. Question is how much pain needs to be felt before it is attempted. #EconomicGrowth

"While the world fixates on Donald Trump’s populist cocktail of reciprocal tariffs and big, beautiful deficits, @JMilei is delivering a man-made miracle that should gladden the heart of every classical economist and quicken the pulse of all political libertarians." 1/5

@martinwolf_ The UK needs deep structural supply side reforms. Productivity gains are hard, take a long time and risk being unpopular due to near term destruction in the hope of long term creation. Here is a fairly good plan for fixing the UK economy: youtu.be/3xK44urpZ-U?si…

Martin Wolf: The roots of the British malaise lie in a sick economy on.ft.com/44hIZsE

@robin_j_brooks @Lysander_20 Watch WTI Brent spreads. US can always implement export ban or restrictions. Trump is US first.

@Lysander_20 @the_allocator No. The US is a massive energy consumer. Higher oil prices will hit US growth much harder than Europe, because Europeans tax oil much more heavily and thus use it less. You're right that the US is a big oil producer, but prices are set globally. That's all that matters...

The global Brent oil price is tumbling as Iran shoots missiles at Qatar. That seems counterintuitive, but makes total sense. If Iran were serious about retaliation, it'd sink an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. The fact that it isn't doing that means it's bending the knee...

@robin_j_brooks Point is that this would be a Brent rather than WTI price risk. One tanker is nothing but it would have serious implications on insurance premiums in the Gulf.

@the_allocator Sure, good point, but blowing up one oil tanker would do little to China or India getting their hands on Iranian oil, but would spike global oil prices and hurt US growth at a time that the economy is already looking wobbly. This is what Iran would do if it were serious...

@GovtofPakistan To be honest, this was not on my 2025 bingo card.

Government of Pakistan Recommends President Donald J. Trump for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize The Government of Pakistan has decided to formally recommend President Donald J. Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership during the recent India-Pakistan crisis. The international community bore witness to unprovoked and unlawful Indian aggression, which constituted a grave violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, resulting in the tragic loss of innocent lives, including women, children, and the elderly. In exercising its fundamental right to self-defense, Pakistan launched Operation Bunyanum Marsoos—a measured, resolute, and precise military response, carefully executed to re-establish deterrence and defend its territorial integrity while consciously avoiding civilian harm. At a moment of heightened regional turbulence, President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation, ultimately securing a ceasefire and averting a broader conflict between the two nuclear states that would have had catastrophic consequences for millions of people in the region and beyond. This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution through dialogue. The Government of Pakistan also acknowledges and greatly admires President Trump’s sincere offers to help resolve the longstanding dispute of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan—an issue that lies at the heart of regional instability. Durable peace in South Asia would remain elusive until the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning Jammu and Kashmir. President Trump’s leadership during the 2025 Pakistan India crisis manifestly showcases the continuation of his legacy of pragmatic diplomacy and effective peace-building. Pakistan remains hopeful that his earnest efforts will continue to contribute towards regional and global stability, particularly in the context of ongoing crises in the Middle East, including the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza and the deteriorating escalation involving Iran.

@elonmusk @elonmusk Honest question: what is your prediction for when this will happen? Your median projection, not Elon-time projection.

Kardashev 1 or you’re not even trying

Honoured to have the distinct pleasure of interviewing @nfergus at the SFO Alliance Conference in London today. Have read all of his books and is a long term fan of his work. Very thought provoking discussion with one of the greatest intellects of our generation.

@RyanMcbeth Proof that golf is 20% outfit, 80% lost balls

I was invited to play golf today at Belmont Country Club. Funniest caption for this picture by likes gets a Ryan McBeth shirt or hoodie of their choice. Contest ends at 8PM EST tonight. bunkerbranding.com/pages/ryan-mcb…

@PeterBerezinBCA Comparing it to number of people works if you have stable demographics. We do not. Looks a bit different if compared to growth in younger population.

This looks a lot like most neutral rate estimates.

Thought experiment: what year will a robotic team win against the world champions in football? If they can beat is us in football, they can be taught to do most work... If pre 2040, this will have a dramatic impact on the economic/geopolitical outlook sooner rather than later.

@PeterZeihan: Liked your vid on AI. Quick q: Demographics may be terrible but does this matter in a future with humanoid robots that can outperform humans in a manufacturing setting?