Barrel Brief

@aeberman12 @acidiclemon2 You don't need oil until you look at literally everything around you

The reality is, nobody “needs oil” @acidiclemon2 I don’t know anyone who owns a barrel. What people actually need are products like diesel & jet fuel. And much of U.S. light crude isn’t well suited to produce those at scale. That's what most people don't get #OilMarkets #EnergyIsTheEconomy #Diesel #JetFuel #CrudeQuality #Refining #Macro #Commodities

Wheels up to the Middle East tomorrow. Got boots on the ground at a few sites over the next few weeks. Ground level view incoming , not what the headlines say 👀

Aberta under Smith has signaled consistently that energy investment isn't something to be managed down, it's something to be grown. $22 billion doesn't land because of a press release.. it lands because the people writing the cheque ran the numbers and liked what they saw. You can debate the politics all you want but capital allocation doesn't lie. Alberta is open for business and the world's biggest players are voting with their balance sheets.. proof in the pudding here

Let’s be honest for a second and ask ourselves: Why does a global energy company come back and put $22 billion into Alberta now - not two years ago, not five years ago? Seriously what changed? Say what you want about Premier Smith but under her unique leadership, Alberta is creating the conditions for growth again - and world’s biggest giants are responding. And right now, Alberta is back to being a top destination for investors again. Critics will never admit that but Albertans know that this leadership understands how an economy actually works. You don’t need to believe it. We are watching it happen. #ableg #abpoli

@RazorOil Butler figured this out in the 70s right here in Alberta and the world is still catching up. Proud to work in an industry built on this kind of innovation

Good morning to all friends that appreciate this game changing 🇨🇦 Canadian Innovation ! The challenge: “How to produce extra heavy oil aka bitumen…hard as a hockey puck 🏒 1300 ft underground?” The Solution: “via the SAGD recovery scheme! where Steam is being injected, reduces the viscosity of oil and Assisting in Gravity Drainage. The condensed steam, now water… is then recycled...NO TAILING PONDS!!” 🫡🪒

@SpencerHakimian Sir the oil companies don't set prices. Telling oil companies to lower prices is like telling a wheat farmer to lower bread prices.

🚨TRUMP: OIL COMPANIES MUST LOWER PRICES IMMEDIATELY

@jackunheard Respect the conviction. Wrong about the physics. You can't tweet mines out of a shipping lane

I’m going to make a prediction… $2.50 gas by end of June.

90 billion more at the pump. That's every American household writing a check to oil producers they didn't agree to. Summer driving season hasn't started. SPR draining. Kuwait at zero exports. three ships through Hormuz today vs 140 pre-war. The guy filling up today got the discount price.

BREAKING: The average price of a gallon of gas in the US surges to $4.43/gallon, now up +61% since December. Americans will spend ~$90 billion more at the pump in a year than they would with gasoline at $3.00.

Good framing but incomplete math. 900,000 barrels to Japan sounds big. Japan consumed 3.2 million barrels per day pre war. That's less than 10 hours of supply. The US becoming the world's swing supplier is real. But shipping Texas crude through Panama to Japan while Hormuz is closed is the most expensive barrel in history. Strategic win Economic pain

Japan just received 900,000 barrels of American crude oil — shipped all the way from Texas through the Panama Canal. Trump pushed China out of Panama. Removed Maduro from Venezuela. Blocked Iran's exports. The ENTIRE WORLD is now buying oil from the United States

@Hedgeye 4.43/gallon. Four year high. Kuwait exported zero barrels last month. Three ships transited Hormuz today. Pre war was 140/day. The price at the pump is just the invoice. The bill hasn't arrived yet

U.S. gas prices hit a four-year high of $4.43

Energy independence means you produce enough. It doesn't mean prices are insulated. Oil is a global commodity. When Hormuz closes, every barrel everywhere gets more valuable, including yours. Your producer sells to the highest bidder. Energy independence and energy price insulation are two different things. Nobody explained that part.

I voted for President Trump three times, and I’d gladly do so again. That said, I have a sincere, question about something I’m genuinely trying to understand. If the U.S. is energy independent, why are gas prices spiking again? They are getting close to the highs we saw under Biden? I know tensions with Iran are playing a role right now, but I thought energy independence was supposed to shield us from these kinds of swings. Can someone explain what’s driving this? I’m not here to criticize Trump, just looking for a clear explanation. Thanks.

Bold assumption that requires: 1.631 billion barrels to magically reappear 20+ sea mines to clear themselves Insurance premiums to drop from 6% to 0.25% overnight 80 damaged facilities to restart simultaneously SPRs to refill at 0.3MM bpd for 3 years Kuwait to go from zero exports to normal in a week $50 oil when the war ends. Sure. Right after the mines clear themselves...

People do realize that the moment the Iran War ends oil goes back to $50 a barrel right?

@AJENews The last time this happened Kuwait was literally on fire. This time nobody dropped a match. Just a closed strait and an insurance desk that won't budge. Still think this resolves in a press conference?

BREAKING: Kuwait exports zero barrels of crude oil in a single month for first time in over 30 years 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/o4g2s6?update=…

@TankerTrackers The market is pricing a temporary disruption. The export data is pricing something else entirely

BREAKING: DURING APRIL 2026, KUWAIT EXPORTED ZERO BARRELS OF CRUDE OIL FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF GULF WAR I #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers #Kuwait

@KobeissiLetter Spirit Airlines shutting down and canceling all flights is honestly the most on-brand thing they've ever done.

BREAKING: After 33 years, Spirit Airlines has officially gone bankrupt and shut down all operations. All flights have been canceled and customer service is no longer available.

Everyone's worried about their summer flight. Nobody's talking about the $8 trillion in cargo that moves by air annually. Pharmaceuticals. Electronics. Fresh food. Medical equipment. None of it survives a slow boat. Jet fuel exports on water are in free fall right now. 10% of global GDP runs through aviation. This isn't a travel story. It's a supply chain story

Jet fuel exports on water are in free fall People might think of going on holiday as a luxury, but the whole travel and tourism industry is dependent on it - Travel and tourism account for 10% of global GDP - 60% of global tourists travel by air - 1/3 of world trade by value is sent by air - Air cargo accounts for $8 trillion worth of goods A true jet fuel shortage would have far-reaching consequences

A month away from crunch point at $120. Bold of the FT to discover gravity on the way down. The people who called $200 oil 'alarmist' in March are now calling $120 a warning sign. The insurance desk, the Dallas Fed execs, and the 1.631 billion missing barrels had this conversation two months ago. Nice of the financial press to show up

At $120/bbl 🛢 the Financial Times says oil markets are a month away from "crunch point" ! No kidding !!! So $120/bbl oil is just the "recreational " price !!

Nobody is modeling what happens after Hormuz reopens. Refineries globally have been running flat out for months. Turnarounds deferred. Maintenance pushed. When margins normalize every operator who skipped their TAR tries to schedule one simultaneously. The supply crisis doesn't end when the strait opens. It enters phase 2.

Everyone's watching the SPR drawdown number. Nobody's asking what happens when it hits operational minimum. The SPR has a maximum physical release rate of ~4.4 million bpd regardless of what's in the caverns. At current pace that floor arrives faster than anyone is modeling. When it does the emergency reserve stops being a policy tool. It's just a number on a spreadsheet. Gasoline at lowest seasonal level since 2014. Summer driving season incoming. No buffer left. We cashed the insurance policy while the house is still on fire.

The US is draining its oil reserves at a rapid pace: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) dropped -7.12 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drawdown since October 2022. This marks the 5th consecutive weekly decline, the longest streak since 2023. Over this period, US oil reserves in the SPR have fallen -17 million barrels, to 398 million, the lowest since April 2025. This comes as total US oil and fuel exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day for the first time in history, as overseas buyers scramble to replace lost Middle Eastern supply. Furthermore, commercial crude stocks declined -6.23 million barrels last week, the largest weekly decline since early February. Gasoline and distillate stocks also fell sharply, by -6.08 million barrels and -4.49 million barrels, respectively, pushing total gasoline supplies to their lowest seasonal level since 2014. Global demand for US oil has never been higher.

The 'just pump more US oil' crowd has never had to explain to a refinery manager why his hydrocracker is designed for 31 API heavy sour and Texas light sweet runs completely differently through it. The chemistry doesn't care about politics. You can't just swap crude grades quickly. The world built its refining infrastructure around Gulf barrels over 50 years. You don't fix that with a tweet

The Hormuz crisis isn’t just a supply shock. It’s a chemistry crisis. The world’s refineries were built around Gulf crude. There is no substitute sitting on a shelf. That’s why this time is genuinely different. Tag someone who thinks “just pump more US oil” solves this. 👇 #OOTT #Hormuz #OilMarket

Everyone is asking why oil prices keep rising. The real question is simpler: Why can’t the world just replace Gulf oil? The answer is chemistry. 👇

@Rory_Johnston Pikachu face when crude rips to $200? That's the sound of every trucker, farmer & refinery worker screaming "we told you so"

Imagine what he'll sound like when crude is at $130? $150? $200?