Thebigcoq

New AFR/RedBridge Accent Reseach poll. Labor 31. One Nation 27. Coalition 22. Greens 13. One Nation have been running second on primary vote nationally for months. They are not new to that position as they are now clearly the second largest party in polling. What this poll tells us is where the ceiling sits. We tested Hanson's net satisfaction among what is left of Labor's base. It sits well over negative 50. Labor's primary back to its pre-election base. What remains is locked in. These voters are not moving to One Nation. More telling, the PM’s ratings have also jumped. But the ceiling is also now shaped by Liberal party voters, that being those still supporting the Liberal Party across the country. Hanson's closeness to Trump has built much of that ceiling. Asset-rich voters, as we saw at the Nepean by-election this weekend, are repelled by it. Hanson has now consolidated a bloc. That is clear but she has not built a national movement. And the bloc she is consolidating is largely made of her historic supporters, former working class Coalition voters and a smaller slice of Labor’s outer urban and regional base. A ceiling at the national level does not mean One Nation will not do well in specific seats. Farrer and many more sit firmly in their territory. Those seats can fall to them. 2PP: Labor 54 v Coalition 46. Labor 55 v One Nation 45. The Labor Federal Government wining in a landslide in either matchup. Full piece in today's AFR link below.