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Jay Malavia
741 posts

Jay Malavia
@thejay
CEO @KairosTradeX prev @NASA, @GenevaTrading, @CBOE
Katılım Haziran 2025
589 Takip Edilen1.7K Takipçiler

We strongly believe that prediction markets are the derivatives layer on top of the entire world.
As these prediction markets markets continue to grow, we will continue to see the increase of interesting primitives that can be traded.
Zayd Alzein@zayddotsol
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1/ New BVIV Index-linked market expiring May 31, 2026 is now live on @Polymarket.
polymarket.com/event/what-wil…
A trading competition running through May 31st with USDC prizes for top PnL traders is live now. Details below.

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@thejay And we’ll see more primitives in entire information markets space
Contracts with resolution have been beginning
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@TimKoltek This is honestly one of the best pieces of advice someone can internalize.
On my phone I have this wallpaper with a tiny needle and the caption, “Move the needle.” It's a reminder that the needle will not move unless you move it.
Just gotta keep pushing.
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Jay Malavia retweetledi

Prediction markets are based on order books. With Kairos, traders can use pro order types like TWAP to break larger trades into smaller executions over time instead of instantly sweeping the book. In thinner markets, this can reduce slippage, limit market impact, and improve average fill quality.
One button. Pro execution. Better fills.
Matt Kalish@mattkalish
Why is it 93-1 if you bet $10 and 38-1 if you bet $1000 on something
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@DamonBurrow We’ve got a growing suite of prediction markets as well, Polymarket, Kalshi, Predict Fun, and more soon. Happy to onboard!
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@thejay Fair enough. Would love to try. Are you on PM and Kalshi? Also, what about tertiary platforms (eg Novig and ProphetX)?
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@DamonBurrow Agreed. It’s moreover a great feature that we’ve optimized on our side to make it as easy to deploy.
Most of our users are quant traders who could do it themselves, but genuinely love how simple we make it with our trading algos suite.
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TWAP would be a genuinely useful feature across those books assuming folks would use. The same effect can be done algorithmically via the APIs (by breaking a single resting order into several take/make chunks). That method also allows each trader to control their own order flow. I do wonder how many UI users would ever have need for TWAP
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@trevorlasn yeah you should try kairos, we handle most of that on our end :)
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@thejay yeah PM execution quality is way underbuilt. seeing whales sweep poly books all day in thinner markets, the slippage gets bad fast
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Kairos enables the next ~100,000 prediction market traders. As the space scales, the need for high-quality traders and liquidity providers is only growing. Kairos gives them the best technology in the market so they can move faster, trade better, and focus on what they do best: trading.
Tarek Mansour@mansourtarek_
Kalshi is the only financial market where Main St. has an edge over Wall St. Gigi, Nicholas, Brandon, Joel, Heather, Paul, and Stephanie have all found their edge and mastered their own niche on Kalshi. Prediction markets are the people’s markets.
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Kairos enables traders to run strategies on prediction markets without having to worry about setting up the infrastructure. It’s never been easier to trade on prediction markets & win.
Fairplaygov@fairplaygov
Kalshi co-founder says <7% of volume comes from institutional market makers. Most of it is from individuals & very small PM-centric funds.
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Jay Malavia retweetledi

Perplexity founder Aravind Srinivas explains the “user is never wrong” philosophy of Larry Page
Aravind recounts a story of Larry Page’s meeting with the CEO of Excite. Excite was the #2 search engine behind Yahoo at the time, and they were interested in buying Google. The two CEOs compared the search results of their products side-by-side.
When Google’s results were clearly better, Excite’s CEO tried to excuse his product’s performance: “If you typed the query this way, it would’ve worked.”
Aravind believes this is an important difference in philosophy between Google and Excite. Larry Page believed that a search engine should give high quality answers regardless of what the user typed:
“You do all the magic behind the scenes so that even if the user was lazy, even if there were typos… they still got the answer and they love the product.”
Today Google dominates search, and most people have never heard of Excite.
Aravind believes the best AI products will adopt this same philosophy and that “prompt engineering” won’t be a long-term thing.
“I think you want to make products work where a user doesn’t even ask for something. You know that they want it and you give it to them… People are lazy and a better product should be one that allows you to be more lazy, not less. Products need to have some magic to them, and the magic comes from letting you be more lazy.”
Source: @lexfridman (Jun 2024)
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It's increasingly clear that prediction markets are transforming into options onto anything in the world. It's a shame in society thus far options have largely been restricted towards institutions. Kairos changes this, offering unrestricted access to the world of trading on any prediction market in the world.
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