zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡)
2.4K posts

zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi

@ShahilAyato @FreeFolkMemes what if season 8 was just a dream jon snow had?
English

@FreeFolkMemes Bro everytime I hear that line in HotD I actually get nam flashbacks with season 8, it’s actually insane. God I wish they’d remake the ending
English

zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi

@DaanCrypto good writing✅️ didn't get bored reading it despite the length. it is very well written
English

There's a lot of fears about how the Grayscale $ETHE selling might cause a dip for $ETH once the ETFs go live, similar to how it did for #Bitcoin with $GBTC.
Here are my thoughts on the $ETH ETF and what might happen over the next couple of months:
1. Most people outside of our bubble have no idea why price went down in the short term after the BTC ETFs got approved last time. We (on CT) know GBTC was some part of it but it was also likely a lot of "Selling the news" after the ETFs had been priced in for months in advance (causing a 2x rally).
This is relevant as it's sometimes good to keep it simple. Your average retail participant sees an ETH ETF by July 2nd. They think, I better buy now before I'm too late. BTC was up nearly 2x within 1.5 months after the ETFs went live. The end result is what sticks.
2. The BTC ETFs went live straight after the S1 approvals and were trading at a 6%+ discount until that point. This means that traders that bought into $GBTC for the discount trade had no time to get out of it for a decent price unless they wanted to sell out for 6% or more. This discount of course disappeared once the ETFs went live.
With the $ETHE product, the discount has already closed to 1-3% and will have traded at that point for well over a month before the ETFs actually go live. This means the ETHE discount traders will have had much more time to get out at basically NAV during that time. Although some will probably wait until the ETFs actually go live and the discount closes fully, it's safe to assume that this prolonged period of a small discount has likely caused a lot of $ETHE holders to sell out already. Especially compared to the $GBTC trade. This should theoretically decrease the ETHE selling in the first few weeks when comparing to $GBTC.
No doubt ETHE will still get drawn out heavily as investors move into cheaper products if Grayscale opts for high fees again.
I just doubt it will have as much of an impact as it did for BTC. Obviously the demand for the other ETFs will play into this as well.
3. We all know what happened with the BTC ETFs. Yes, price sold off initially but they have been a giant net positive for the #Bitcoin price in the end. The result is what matters and even if we'd get some low timeframe correction, that is something investors would be willing to look through more easily if the end result is a positive. Similar how stocks tend to bottom 9-12 months before the actual economy bottoms. Investors know due to rate cuts/money printing etc, stocks will go up later anyways, so they start allocating in advance. Forward looking. We didn't have an idea of what might happen with BTC and there were little fears about GBTC at the time. The market is a little smarter now :)
BTC ETFs broke all ETF records and have really shown the demand for these products. We know ETH won't get close to the same demand but even a fraction would already do wonders seeing the market cap is also about 1/3rd of BTC and a lot of the supply is locked for staking.
Further thoughts:
All in all, there is not a single person that could convince me the ETH ETFs will be a long term net negative for the space and for the ETH price.
I still think there is a lot of pricing in to do and this accelerated "Deadline" of July 2nd might find investors looking to allocate earlier than they initially planned to. We also can't forget how the SEC was basically trying to label ETH as a security only a few months ago and that the White House has made a 180 on crypto in general. All that has been undone in the span of last month.
What was interesting to me is the fact that the message of Gensler seeing S1 approval "Sometime in Summer" or even late summer, was met by a weak reaction. Investors likely figured they had plenty of time to get allocated and that short term price action was just noise.
Then yesterday's update came with a date. July 2nd. The market loves certainty and they got it. With a pretty close timeline of a little over 2 weeks.
This news is still pretty fresh but saw a much stronger reaction from ETH than the news with the vague Summer timeline from the day prior. Although the approvals were a certainty already, the closer date indicated here seems to have made a difference in price action to the news. This tells me that there's still capital waiting for the ETFs to actually go live and/or whatever happens in the short term once they go live. Additionally to thinking: "Summer will be slow so I'll just allocate later."
The market has definitely not priced in a good reaction post ETFs going live. I think there's still a lot of pessimism surrounding this launch. We don't know how bad the $ETHE selling will be and what the demand for the $ETH ETFs will be. I do like the risk/reward in the long run and feel like with expectations so low, it can almost only surprise to the upside.
I think the most important thing is to not expect the exact same as what happened with the BTC ETFs. The entire run up to it was different, the product is different, the sentiment different and the market is different.
These are just my thoughts and assumptions. Time will tell what will happen. I'm still bullish on this space for the year to come and will patiently wait for higher prices in the future.
Until then we try our best and manage with the info we have. 🤝




English
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi

🪂 Latest updates about @LayerZero_Labs airdrop:
- Snapshot 2 done.
- It was taken snapshot 1+2days [Snapshot 1 was on May 1st (11:59:59 PM UTC)]
- Will act as an X2 multiplier.
- The allocation will be based on LZ fees. [Not gas fee]
- The more you spend on fees, the more the $ZRO allocation.
You can check your transactions here: layerzeroscan.com
As of now, there are 2 models proposed by @PrimordialAA:
🔮 Model 1:
1. Transaction less than $1 will have the weight reduced by 80%.
2. For valueless NFT transactions the weight will be reduced by 80%
3. Transaction within first 12 months: X3 multiplier
4. 3 txns since snapshot+2 days: overall X2 multiplier
🔮 Model 2:
1. The first 2 conditions are the same as model 1.
2. Greater than 3 transactions within first 12 months: overall X2 multiplier
3. 4th condition is also the same as model 1.
Have you done some transactions after the snapshot 1?

English
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi

zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
zephyrus 👑 (💙,🧡) retweetledi
























