Thesis oracle
62 posts


🚀 YC F25 is HERE — and I just published the full breakdown you’ve been waiting for.
After weeks of 1:1s with founders and deep dives into the batch, I pulled together:
🔥 The entire YC F25 startup list
📊 Category breakdowns + % share
🤖 Theme analysis (spoiler: AI is still everywhere)
🧠 Insider look at which YC partners backed what
⭐ And our top favorite companies of the batch
If you’re an investor, founder, or just YC-curious, this is the most comprehensive look at F25 anywhere.
📩 Want to read the full analysis + download the complete list? Comment "YC" and I'll send it to you ⚡
Curious what surprised us most this cycle?
Why certain founders are breaking out?
Or which categories YC partners are really leaning into?
Drop a comment!

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Let this sink in for a second:
You can buy $ETH today at the same price people were willing to pay back in 2017.
Back then, Ethereum was nothing more than an ICO platform.
Barely scalable.
Barely secure.
Just a dream.
Today - after 8 years of progress - with market uncertainty at its peak and Ethereum going through its own identity crisis, you can still buy $ETH at the same levels as in 2017.
Let’s quickly recap just some of the progress we had in the meantime:
- The Merge: Ethereum transitioned to Proof of Stake, slashing energy use by 99% and making the network more secure and sustainable.
- The Layer 2 Boom: Ethereum scaled modularly, with ecosystems like @base, @arbitrum, @Optimism, and more locking tens of billions in TVL.
- EIP-1559: A fee burn mechanism was introduced, giving $ETH the real potential to become a deflationary asset over time.
- DeFi Revolution: Founders like @haydenzadams, @kaiynne, and @StaniKulechov turned on-chain finance into a multibillion-dollar reality.
- NFT Explosion: Digital art, brand engagement, and digital ownership fundamentally changed forever - all starting on Ethereum.
- Institutional Adoption: The biggest asset managers in the world filed for ETH ETFs, and firms like Blackrock are building on Ethereum to bring Real World Assets (RWAs) on-chain - a multi-trillion dollar opportunity.
- Developer Growth: The EVM developer ecosystem grew from ~2,000 in 2018 to over 20,000 today.
That's just scratching the surface. I could probably go on forever but I think the message should be clear:
Even if it often gets taken for granted -even if the behavior of the Ethereum Foundation can be criticized - the amount of real progress in Ethereumland over the last decade is remarkable.
The fact that you can still buy $ETH at 2017 levels?
It’s either the market’s greatest joke - or its greatest opportunity.
One thing is clear though:
Back then, Ethereum was a fragile smart contract platform for ICOs.
Today, it’s the world's leading decentralized settlement layer and nothing will change about that.
$ETH at these levels is criminal.
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My simple thesis asserts that if the U.S. embraces Bitcoin and stablecoins, it can secure the leadership of the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities, akin to the petrodollar arrangements of the 1970s. Rising demand for stablecoins in a Bitcoin-driven market would prompt issuers to increase their holdings of dollar-denominated assets, reinforcing the dollar's dominance and creating a virtuous cycle similar to that established by oil pricing in USD.
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During the last cycle, you said $60K didn’t look like a top, even though it had a perfect textbook structure of one. Now, you feel bearish at $85K because $108K looks like a top. I understand your bearish sentiment—that’s because you haven’t experienced the bull phase yet. When the real top is in and we see a 25% pullback, I’ll post this chart again. You’ll look at it and know for certain, without any guidance, whether the top is in or not.

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$ETH $17K by OCTOBER
Blackrock said ETH ETF were underperforming due to no staking:
- SEC to approve Grayscale ETH staking ETF by 05/26
- SEC to approve Blackrock ETH options trading by 04/15
- Fidelity to launch US $ on ETH by 30/05
- $DRB on @base to solve US debt by 17/06


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Guys, we are witnessing attacks on Tesla at a scale never before seen. This means reality is being distorted in ways that can benefit critically thinking investors.
1. Nobody wants to say anything good about Tesla. Even if there is a genuine positive development, it will be ignored or downplayed. This is because anyone who says something good about Tesla is harassed and accused of wanting to “suck Elon’s dick”. Most journalists are far too embarrassed to say anything good about the company, they will be shunned by their friends!
2. Negativity will be amplified to the max, even if it’s complete bullshit. For example, Mark Rober’s video.
3. Short sellers are manipulating angry liberals to join them in shorting Tesla. They know this will push the share price down, causing fear among investors, leading to more selling and shorting. However, this means that any positive event can lead to a chain reaction where the price rising leads to short covering in addition to long buying, which drives up the price further, which leads to more short covering and long buying. Remember Tesla IS the options market.
4. The stock is being priced for a collapse in the business. When expectations are that low, you can report a pretty shitty quarter and still beat the market’s expectations.
How short people’s memories are. Just a few months ago people were clamoring to buy Tesla at $480. Now it’s trading at half that. But there’s no way there will ever be a new all time high, right? Even with FSD rapidly approaching unsupervised?
Not financial advice, but there is potentially a huge opportunity here.
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look, i know a lot of you don't buy the thesis that ETH is the world's best natively programmable, censorship-resistant collateral asset
it's ok, but you're wrong, and the market is also wrong (for now)
but with privacy about to be turned on and regulatory impediments getting washed away (e.g., Tornado Cash, DeFi détente)
you may want to update your priors before Wall Street, etc. figure it out and set a new narrative (just like they did for BTC) and you're sidelined from it for the next 10 years
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🟢 Winning thesis by @TuurDemeester
November 2018:
"Bitcoin is evolving towards Reserve Asset status"
January 2025:
- US launches Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
- $BTC up ~12x ($6.5k to $85k) since, but first dropped further down to $3.5k.
Situational context:
- Nov-18 was right in the midst of a pessimistic bear market
- BTC was down -67% from Dec-17 high of $20k to ~$6.5k at time of tweet
- BTC was declared “dead” by many [1]
Tuur Demeester@TuurDemeester
Why I think Bitcoin is evolving towards Reserve Asset status: 📈 10yr track record 📈 Highest security 📈 Stable & growing protocol stack 📈 Institutional adoption 📈 High & improving privacy 📈 Politically neutral 📈 User sovereignty 📈 Virtuous liquidity cycle
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