Widge retweetledi
Here are @adamtaggart and @htsfhickey talking about AI malinvestment. I am suffering futureshock having just finished a discussion about how AI is still a great investment class...
youtube.com/watch?v=mhPwRH…
YouTube
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Widge
154.5K posts
This one is too hard to grasp by far too many people.
Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator.@RudyHavenstein
Capitalism is for the local pizza shop or the hair salon. Above a certain size, it's basically a fascist big government/big corporate partnership.
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Widge retweetledi
1. The CPI has been above the @FederalReserve's made-up 2% model since early 2021. This is an epic failure.
2. The Fed's legal mandate is "stable prices," not 2%, a number they pulled out of their butts.
3. The CPI itself is a nonsense math model.
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Widge retweetledi
If we agree that unequal economic opportunities and excessive wealth inequality lead people to vote for socialist candidates it would seem reasonable to believe that those candidates ascending to power based on that situation would want those characteristics to persist…it’s called job security and everyone wants it..
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Widge retweetledi
In addition to the oil and gas story @BrianBrenberg rightly mentions, there were some oddities in this CPI report that further pushed down the headline but that might reverse in coming months or might just be more evidence of problems in BLS methodology; i.e., there were M/M price declines for electricity, car insurance, apparel, etc. in the Jun CPI print when real world data show these all increased:
Brian Brenberg@BrianBrenberg
Headline inflation falls month-over-month in June—biggest decline in 6 years. Core inflation drops to 2.6%, well below expectations. It’s an oil and gas story.
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Headline inflation falls month-over-month in June—biggest decline in 6 years. Core inflation drops to 2.6%, well below expectations. It’s an oil and gas story.
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@ZR1Trader The more aggressive they are today, the less aggressive they'll have to be in the future.
By his words, Warsh gets that... we'll see how his actions follow through.
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Ok, raise rates today then.
zerohedge@zerohedge
*WARSH: FED HAS ’NO TOLERANCE’ FOR PERSISTENTLY HIGH INFLATION
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Widge retweetledi
To fund an overextended empire, Roman emperors debased their coins by diluting the precious metal content.
This week, Congress will vote to eliminate the PENNY, which was already mostly zinc since 1982. The same bill will allow the U.S. Mint to make NICKELS with cheaper metal.
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2 years ago, Conservatives argued that you need to consider the deficit when looking at other economic data... because economic statistics become a debt funded mirage, without that context.
2 years later, legitimate Conservatives still argue the same.
Widge@thirdgenwidget
I don't know that there is a right time, but this past year was the wrong time to decide to keep blowing through even more money... They killed DOGE... Congress never codified tariffs... and the Administration decided they wanted to join a "war" that will not end...
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Funny.
We’ve arrived at a place where the people who pretend to be conservative insult the people who are conservative.
Tuck@LakedogX2
@thirdgenwidget Yeah- kill brew business investment. Brilliant. Fucking commie.
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I was waiting for Mr Bianco to chime in on this… I think this is exactly right.
The Fed needs to hike to stop the long end of the curve from blowing out.
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch
1/5 The fed funds futures have a HIKE at the end of the month (July 29) at 45%! (55% no move) Tomorrow morning's CPI report and Warsh's testimony will decide it. -- "When the Fed starts panicking, I can stop panicking." A hike stops rising yields; root for it. 🧵
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Widge retweetledi
5/5
Should the Fed raise rates?
I think the phrase that describes this period is at the top of this chart
"When the Fed starts panicking, I can stop panicking"
The top panel is the 10-year inflation break-even rate, and the bottom panel is the 10-year yield
The red area shows when the Fed was hiking rates, and the green area shows when they were cutting rates.
When the Fed is hiking rates, the market calms down about inflation, and break-evens fall. (top)
When the Fed cuts rates, the market interprets it as a sign that the Fed is not concerned about inflation. Break-evens stop falling.
If the Fed wants 10-year yields to stop rising, it should start panicking a bit about inflation and hike rates. Then bond investors will calm down.
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You’ll notice that it’s not much different than a market chart… because they are related.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Total US federal debt is now up to a record $39.4 trillion, rising +$3.2 trillion over the last 12 months. Since 2020, US federal debt is now up a massive +$16.3 trillion. This marks a +$2.5 trillion average annual increase, or +$209 billion per month. At this pace, total US debt will surge to $50.0 trillion before 2030. The US debt crisis has no end in sight.
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I wouldn’t be surprised if the next President came from KY… but it’s not any that you’re probably thinking of.
TMZ@TMZ
🚨 EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Thomas Massie was upbeat Monday with @hicharliecotton, who asked him if he would consider running for Senator Mitch McConnell's seat if he resigns. Massie was pretty clear -- not interested, taking a shot at geriatric senators who belong in nursing homes.
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You’d need a permanent US military presence… and you’d have to secure the entire mountain region…
But you all already knew that, which is why most of you were against this, from the start.
TV News Now@TVNewsNow
🚨 NEW: Fox’s Brit Hume on new U.S. action in Iran tonight: “You know I wonder if that fee the President wants [on ships in the Strait of Hormuz] will ever be paid by anybody. But the real question tonight is whether the military action we are undertaking now can have the effect of shutting down Iran’s ability to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz.” “We have hurt their military, taken out installations, but it doesn’t take much to interfere with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The question now is whether our military can make the Strait safe at an acceptable cost to us. It’s risky, may entail casualties, might even involve ground forces, but that’s where we are in my judgement.”
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