Federico Ferrari
14.7K posts

Federico Ferrari
@thisisfed
Contrarian. Be kind. Be humble. Mostly $BYND. NFA, DYODD.
Katılım Şubat 2011
1.5K Takip Edilen1.4K Takipçiler

@thisisfed @ChrisCamillo Hey! Who's "his"? Clarify and I'll break it down. If Elon, no short-term trades—he's all-in building xAI + Tesla's AI (Optimus, FSD, Dojo). Long game on superintelligence. Context?
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@thisisfed @the_fat_pitch Totally agree! Holding a ton of shares and not selling. It’s just a matter of time
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$OPTT reported today.
Solid backlog numbers ($19.9M), but that was expected after well known announcements. The financials were weak: just $0.5M in revenue, significant cash burn, and only $7.2M of cash left.
In our opinion, dilution looks highly likely. Tomorrow, management needs to explain how they intend to scale and turn that backlog into revenue.
We’ll wait for the call tomorrow before sharing our final thoughts and game plan for our position.
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We’re in the middle of the biggest behavioral pandemic in history: smartphone addiction.
Billions glued, scrolling, dopamine-hijacked, attention shredded, real life on mute.
So tell me honestly, what’s the actual vaccine?
• Cold-turkey digital detox?
• Dumb phone / Light Phone?
• Boredom as medicine?
• Holding tech companies legally accountable like Big Tobacco?
• Nature / birdwatching / real-world signals our brains actually evolved for?
• Something else entirely?
Drop your strongest take below. No “just use willpower”, we’ve tried that and lost.
What breaks the cycle for good?
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@Contextmonkeyz There are some @MartinShkreli expressions there.
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@joecarlsonshow My companies = The companies I have invested in. Don't feel like a CEO now.
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My year to date: -9%
More than 100k down.
I feel fine saying it. My companies are doing well, their cash flows and earnings are all at highs and growing quickly. I’ve been adding more money to both my public portfolio and my private account (which is just SCHG).
This can swing back in the positive very quickly. Be ready.
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@thisisfed The problem is that management isn’t saying much about the near future. I think they’re quietly positioning for potential contracts linked to the current conflict and the rising strategic importance of maritime assets, but it’s still speculative at this stage.
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@patrickbetdavid Met daûr which in our dialect means: put behind. Meaning: if it's late and you're not done yet, you can do it tomorrow.
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@dbongino Says who?
1) Banned from YouTube
2) Baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen.
3) Repeatedly called the FBI's agents “thugs.
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@the_fat_pitch I believe their one-in-20-years chance is happening right in front of our very own eyes. Hold and chill, $OPTT will moon very, very soon.
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As promised, here are our takeaways and comments from the $OPTT earnings call today:
1. Revenue
Management blamed the U.S. government shutdown for the weak $0.5M revenue print (down from $0.8M in the same quarter last year, and down from $4.5M to $2.1M for the 9-month period Y/Y). Delays can happen, but this continues to demonstrate the company’s ongoing inability to actually produce and efficiently convert their backlog into cash.
2. The "Platform Pivot"
On a positive note, they are trying to position themselves as more than just a hardware manufacturer. CEO Philipp Stratmann explicitly stated they want to be a "platform supporting the future of offshore autonomy," heavily emphasizing their Merrows system (their AI-capable data integration software that connects their buoys to wider defense networks) and autonomous docking solutions.
3. Scaling the Backlog
On scaling the $19.9M backlog, CEO Stratmann noted that the DHS systems (U.S. Department of Homeland Security maritime surveillance buoys) are finally shipping in the coming "days and weeks." He added that they will begin "recognizing revenue from them essentially as if it was a lease contract over that 15-month period."
4. Cash
As we anticipated yesterday, cash is the biggest issue.
🔻 $19.9M net cash used in operations over 9 months
🔻 Only $7.2M in cash left
In our view, dilution is imminent.
5. Our Game Plan
We are not satisfied at all. We were expecting clear indications on financing and scaling, but management either gave nothing or not enough to match our minimum expectations.
Because we hold a small position, we can watch it bleed to see how things play out. However, if the stock spikes on a press release that we judge to be irrelevant to the actual fundamentals, we will likely sell.
Of course, we might always change our view. We will keep you posted.
$OPTT
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