tingleTrader

sweetgreen analyst #3 reporting for duty 🫡🥗🌯

@JohnJ40719962 @Ai_Andy1337 @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson would love to know your thoughts once you do travel.

@tingleTrader @Ai_Andy1337 @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson Just block the haters if they come 😎. I’m in the boonies and closest location to me is 3 hours away but I’ll be traveling in 3 weeks and plan to hit every location i see

$SG Visit #6 sweetgreen wrap update - Wednesday, May 27th 12:00 pm- Aventura, Florida. see thread for location details this visit 🧵 LOCATION IS SLAMMED! @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson

The money hitting the register doesn't care if the person eats their meal in the restaurant or not. Especially if their being funneled through a channel that's particulary sticking for returning customers (mobile ordering). imo there's been a volume increase to stores, and specifically for to-go orders. Just a question of how much of a volume increase, and will this trend continue.

Yea not disagreeing with the math, seems like bump of sales is 3% to 5% but it will hurt sales of other products. So the net net effect is unknown. I get a feeling they will need to launch a soup soon for the winter months as they don’t have anything in the menu. Dessert options are horrible need an internal option, no another brand. They need to drive more traffic to the store so great the wrap stuff is working but to really make it a 20% or larger category there needs to be more in store as the goal is to have a higher check not a $13 but a $17 check with a high margin product like a soup or drink… By the way love all the visits and insights you are providing the only concerning aspect is no store traffic on this hot new product. Would want to see more.

Visit #3 sweetgreen wrap update - Sunday, May 24th ~6 pm (Memorial Day weekend)- Hyde Park Village, Tampa, FL $SG Fancy outdoor mall location, very wealthy area. Not as trendy as the St. Pete Location (no other sweetgreen has been as trendy as that one yet). Store was busy, but nothing particularly remarkable. Indicators of insane volume were NOT displayed: ie drink cooler was stocked fairly fine, and there was plenty of toilet paper. (However, given to-go orders do not impact these areas nearly as much, it’s imo only an identifier for dine-in orders) Demographic was very affluent. There was a group of “the cool guys” in town. 18/19 year olds. Based on the brands they were wearing, conversation topic of a $3.6k/month top-floor apartment with sunset views, and perfect tan that says: “I don’t have a highly demanding job”.... I got the impression they could eat anywhere they wanted, but were choosing to eat at sweetgreen, which felt significant. They didn’t fit the typical female demographic I was expecting from knowing sweetgreen’s brand years ago. Also had international customers sitting behind me, but that might not be remarkable for that specific area. Interesting read at this location: wraps seemed more popular through online orders than in-store orders. I was the only visible person in the store eating a wrap. The sign that sits in front of the store announcing the wrap launch was barely visible. Note from later visits: higher volume to-go wraps vs in-store seems to be a trend across all stores. That makes me think the video/social media funnel may be converting more directly into app/website to-go orders, rather than walk-in orders. I’m generally under the impression that to-go vs dine-in orders are higher margin too. Employee Remarks: - The employee specifically mentioned that the store was going through a large amount of the smaller paper bags (these are used for to-go orders for wrap only orders (they are too narrow to fit the protein bowl or salads). - Regarding wrap volume: “it took a little bit after launch (for the wraps) then people started coming in for them. “ - the employee saw they launched in california first and so she went and was watching the videos online. - Hard to get a % of wraps vs. salad, very loosely the employee suggested a third. High level opinion: online-order pickup demand suggested a stronger volume than the dine-in head count would suggest the store was otherwise doing.

i'm seeing the traffic from a large subset of demographics. let's pretend it's only 20 wraps a day/location. (i'm seeing more). 20 wraps * $12.99 base cost for wrap * 200 locations *365 days = $19 million in additional revenue per year. For a company with a 2025 revenue of $679 million. That's a base case under your assumption of 2.7% increase in annual revenue. Wraps and to-go are higher margin too.

If they do a bogo wrap IN STORE ONLY that should help increase traffic to stores ajd het margins from the beverages. They really need to get people into these expensive locations to help cover the cost. An additional 20 wrap orders a day will not move the needle. They need to do more to bring new customers and the gen z gen alpha crowd.

love this. my opinion so far is a baseline 10% increase in traffic volume across the board. with “special/trendy” stores (so far it’s 2/6 of the ones of been to being impacted more extremely. those stores imo so far also see a higher percentage of their orders being wraps. … and depending on the location 20-40% of order items are wraps. with wraps increasing the stickiness of the customer. i’ve spoken with multiple employees about ppl coming back repeatedly for the wraps. The trendy stores also seem to be seeing a significant increase in to-go orders vs dine-in. sometimes it makes the stores look empty, which has been counter intuitive.

@tingleTrader @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson @ChrisCamillo @tingleTrader okay I’m convinced. Let’s ride.

i saw the same. with the exception of one location where i noticed them utilizing reusable kitchen bowls. there doesn’t seem to be an SOP for the bowls that they utilize to make the wraps… that OR their volume is so high / they’re not use to the volume of dishes. or it’s an intentional material vs labor COGS decision.

@tingleTrader This location also used a to-go bowl to mix the content of each wrap and then discarded the bowl. Have you seen the same in your scouting? Seems like there may be some additional COGS improvement if they can switch to reusable bowls in the future.

Location 1 Sunday May 24th 2pm (of memorial day weekend) St. Petersburg, FL Very trendy location. Busy for 2pm on a Sunday and noticeably busier than nearby restaurants. Biggest thing I noticed: the wrap signage outside was working. More than half of people walking by seemed to notice it. I watched multiple people stop, talk about the restaurant, and decide to go in. (Note from later visits to other locations: The signage isn't always out front, and is not always ideally placed where pedestrians are crossing in front of is) Inside, wraps looked like real demand — not just internet noise. At any given time, I’d estimate 20–40% of visible in-store orders were wraps. I also saw 6+ pickup orders, and one group of 5 walked in and left with 4 wraps. The store felt very grab-and-go friendly. I’ve rarely seen this much takeout activity at a fast casual restaurant outside of Chipotle. Product was strong. Wrap was fresh, and the tortilla was one of the best I’ve had in a long time — moist, spongy, didn’t break, and not toasted. Lemon squeeze on the wrap was excellent. Demographic also stood out: young people, post-workout crowd, trendy customers, fanny-pack/workout-sunglasses types. This was likely the trendiest location I've been to so far, based on the age demographic, it was a very popular outdoor eatery area with new high rise apartments surrounding. Employees said people had wanted Sweetgreen to make wraps for a long time, and now “everyone is asking” for them. App experience was also strong. Wraps are all over the mobile ordering page, UI is clean and fast (I'm a previous software engineer using a 4+ year old iphone and the sweetgreen app was still fast). imo there’s a clear funnel toward ordering + joining the loyalty program. However after going to later locations, the employees are not trained to push the loyalty program (1 of 6 locations has mentioned loyalty to me) Operationally, the store looked stretched. Toilet paper was out, no water cups, outdoor tables needed wiping, drink cooler was empty, and bathrooms were at capacity. My read: product-market fit looks real at this location. The product is good, the signage is converting, pickup activity is strong, and wraps seem to expand Sweetgreen into a more portable, higher-frequency use case. Also, the price point per calories is solid.

@kylerippey Thinking the same. I think their higher volume locations might have to alter their kitchen layout. I’ve only been to one location so far that i noticed them also preparing orders in the back (and the manager DID mention that they reconfigured the kitchen to add that station)

@tingleTrader That 25-30% I estimated was inclusive of to go orders. The kitchen layout is not optimized for wraps, they pretty much only have counter space to roll one wrap at a time. If wraps become a larger portion of their product mix they're going to have to rearrange some kitchens

@kylerippey Thank you for sharing this.! You notice anything about their to-go orders?

@tingleTrader I sat and observed during lunch rush in Seattle yesterday and also estimated 25-30% of orders were wraps. Also noticeably busier than I've ever seen it during that same time frame.

Here to connect with other cool people and share research ideas. Happy for holes to be poked in my thesis. Started posting on this account this morning with 200 followers 🤷‍♀️ Also, they're actually differentiating themselves with their ingredients, which the market may or may not care about.

@tingleTrader @DumbMoneyTV @sweetgreen @ChrisCamillo Suddenly she doesn’t react to wheat when invested in a stock. 😂

$SG Visit #5 sweetgreen wrap update - Monday, May 26th 6:30 - West Palm Beach, Florida. transcript in 🧵 @DumbMoneyTV @sweetgreen @ChrisCamillo

THE ALPHA>>>>Just spoke with the (likely) manager, He used the small dip in store volume to clean the kitchen floor and dine-in tables. (store volume picked up again and he had to get back to orders). Struck up a conversation while he was cleaning the table next to me. - Location has been open 2 years, he's been here roughly since then. For first 1.5 years, store was losing money and his hours were cut and it was "not good". (He was a bit depressed on this topic) - "Volume has been picking up each time they launch a product." (I’m guessing over the last 6 months) (he was upbeat about this) - There has been a VERY significant difference since the wraps launched, regarding increased volume. In his words they were seeing that crazy slam “because of the wraps”. (he was very excited about this) - I asked if the volume over the last two weeks is accelerating or decelerating. According to him it’s accelerating still. - He said today was particularly crazy as they had a health inspection this morning and 2 BIG to-go/catering orders (not sure which), in addition to the volume. - He agreed they are VERY understaffed. - He said that sweetGreen expects a lot of their volume during lunch rush, which is “suppose to be at 12pm". I placed a to-go order at 11:17am , it was suppose to be ready at 11:35am , I arrived at 11:45am and my order was still in the jumble of empty bowls w/ receipts needing to be made + the hectic feeling in the store or being slammed was already present. (Their lunch rush started imo a ways before 12pm today) ⁃ He mentioned that they had to open up the station in the back of the kitchen for prepping the to-go orders and that they had never used that station previously.

Started investing because the @DumbMoneyTV podcast gave me the confidence that people like me could make money in the stock market. Listened to every podcast for ~12 months + every external podcast you did. Finally saw enough repetitions of thinking about putting money in a stock, and then the stock skyrocketing in price... that I finally started to do something about it.

For those who know me, a woman social arb trader publishing channel checks is basically my dream come true. Social arb investing has fully arrived. $SG

I’ve seen nearly every demographic of person at this location, it's the most diverse location I've been to so far. Been wanting to hop up and grab a drink, keep telling myself I'll grab it when there's no line ... ... 30 minutes later, still no drink. it's 1:48pm, presumably tail end of lunch rush

Location #2 Sweetgreen field check 301 West Palm Ave Tampa, FL Sunday May 24th (memorial day weekend) ~3:30pm This location was quieter than St. Pete, but the area itself was also pretty dead — 3:30pm on a Sunday holiday weekend. Looks like it may benefit from nearby apartments, and possibly stadium/school traffic. Employee said there was not a huge increase in traffic, but sales are up and wraps are popular. Visible wrap mix varied while I was there. At one point, maybe 20% of the store had wraps. Later, closer to 40–50% of observed customers had wraps. One employee packed a wrap for himself to go as he left his shift. Always a small but interesting signal. Product was still strong. Tortilla was not quite as good as the St. Pete location, but still one of the better tortillas I’ve had. Moist, fresh, not toasted, and held up well. The Jalapeño Ranch wrap with rice was very filling. Rice was cooked well. Corn and pickled onions were fresh, seasoned well, and the food temperature was right. Price point continues to look good. This feels like a much better value proposition than legacy Sweetgreen bowls/salads. Operationally, this store was cleaner than St. Pete: drink cooler stocked, bathroom had toilet paper, no line, outlets at tables. Location was out of water cups. Execution on the wraps was a little awkward, (notes from later visits: seems like some employees are still getting use to making the wraps, while others are seasoned experts) . Sometimes the wraps aren't cut all the way through the full tortilla or they hesitant when rolling it. Wrap signage was out front again. Catering menu still does not include wraps yet, which feels like a future opportunity. Demographic note: saw a broader customer mix. A 50-ish overweight white guy asked about the Caesar wrap. A couple younger gay guys came in (typically a trendy demographic, plus he was carrying a 2nd+ gen white cream stanley cup (trendy product) (I'm a previous amazon re-seller). One got the Caesar wrap. Imo, this may be expanding beyond the usual salad customer that sweetgreen sees. My read: not the same visible hype as St. Pete, but still positive. Product is consistent, employees say sales are up, wraps are popular, and the price/value equation looks strong. Main question: how much of the lift is broad-based vs. concentrated in trendier locations?

Lunch rush has passed. Haven't seen employees take a break yet. They are still working through last bits of to-go order backlog, but finally able to breathe. Store feels less hectic. People are trickling into the store, but it's maybe 1/10th of the volume it just was.

First official lunch time I've seen. First location was poppin' middle 3 locations were increased volume but nothing insane or remarkable like first one. Two locations last night were a little disappointing. Kinda mind blown at this Adventura location. Since I've gotten here, the line stays filled with to-go orders, there's ~6 people waiting at any given time for to-go orders, there's a couple groups sitting and eating here. There's the lady in the back station still making to-go orders, and to-go orders barely make it to the to-go shelf (maybe 2 orders out of 50 order items). There's absolutely nothing remarkable about the dine-in volume at any location I've been to.

Wish I could get alpha by talking to employees, but they are literally too busy to talk to over last 60 minutes of being in store. At any given point the ~10 to-go orders on the line getting made, maybe 15-20% of them are wraps.

@Ai_Andy1337 @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson Needed to hear this. Thank you!. Hopping back into social media after 3+ years of being offline. Preparing the mind for the comments to come (: stay tuned for more updates. Currently on my second road trip for sweetgreen locations.

@tingleTrader @DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson You’re doing great work! Although you may not get tons of comments or likes, just know that lots of people are watching you and appreciate the DD. I personally have 6 figures in the trade so these vids are valuable to me

@DumbMoneyTV @ChrisCamillo @sweetgreen @davehanson Almost behind the counter lady has chilled out after making friends with another to-go order person. Confusion on who's order is who's. behind counter Lady just got handed order, but now her friend is bummed.