Kyle Rippey

@tingleTrader Also, thanks for sharing all your findings!

@tingleTrader Makes sense for initial launch while they're still trying to gauge volume and demand. The good news is it seems like there are a few efficiency levers they can pull if these indeed become a larger part of the business!

Location 1 Sunday May 24th 2pm (of memorial day weekend) St. Petersburg, FL Very trendy location. Busy for 2pm on a Sunday and noticeably busier than nearby restaurants. Biggest thing I noticed: the wrap signage outside was working. More than half of people walking by seemed to notice it. I watched multiple people stop, talk about the restaurant, and decide to go in. (Note from later visits to other locations: The signage isn't always out front, and is not always ideally placed where pedestrians are crossing in front of is) Inside, wraps looked like real demand — not just internet noise. At any given time, I’d estimate 20–40% of visible in-store orders were wraps. I also saw 6+ pickup orders, and one group of 5 walked in and left with 4 wraps. The store felt very grab-and-go friendly. I’ve rarely seen this much takeout activity at a fast casual restaurant outside of Chipotle. Product was strong. Wrap was fresh, and the tortilla was one of the best I’ve had in a long time — moist, spongy, didn’t break, and not toasted. Lemon squeeze on the wrap was excellent. Demographic also stood out: young people, post-workout crowd, trendy customers, fanny-pack/workout-sunglasses types. This was likely the trendiest location I've been to so far, based on the age demographic, it was a very popular outdoor eatery area with new high rise apartments surrounding. Employees said people had wanted Sweetgreen to make wraps for a long time, and now “everyone is asking” for them. App experience was also strong. Wraps are all over the mobile ordering page, UI is clean and fast (I'm a previous software engineer using a 4+ year old iphone and the sweetgreen app was still fast). imo there’s a clear funnel toward ordering + joining the loyalty program. However after going to later locations, the employees are not trained to push the loyalty program (1 of 6 locations has mentioned loyalty to me) Operationally, the store looked stretched. Toilet paper was out, no water cups, outdoor tables needed wiping, drink cooler was empty, and bathrooms were at capacity. My read: product-market fit looks real at this location. The product is good, the signage is converting, pickup activity is strong, and wraps seem to expand Sweetgreen into a more portable, higher-frequency use case. Also, the price point per calories is solid.

@slopbowlcritic You forgot Slop Wraps

At the local strip mall. What should I get for lunch?

@tingleTrader This location also used a to-go bowl to mix the content of each wrap and then discarded the bowl. Have you seen the same in your scouting? Seems like there may be some additional COGS improvement if they can switch to reusable bowls in the future.

@tingleTrader That 25-30% I estimated was inclusive of to go orders. The kitchen layout is not optimized for wraps, they pretty much only have counter space to roll one wrap at a time. If wraps become a larger portion of their product mix they're going to have to rearrange some kitchens

He’ll run this thing to zero trying to save face.

Never fly @lufthansa. Not even once. Don’t even think about it, it never turns out well. Worst airline in the world.

@aixarizzo @lufthansa This is actually a typical Lufthansa experience

worst flight of my life on @lufthansa attendant spills ginger ale on me at takeoff. ok, accidents happen hours later another attendant spills HOT tea on me. i get burned. clothes, seat, everything soaked i ask for a dry seat. crew manager arrives 30 min later YELLING at me i ask for compensation. she finger-points telling me to shut up and that she'll have me DETAINED on landing i start crying. she takes me to the galley to offer "a solution" the solution: a 5€ voucher to clean my clothes i tell her i'm recording. she switches to german to keep yelling and told me that i can't record i have video. but i'd rather not post me crying with my burnt leg out here then on my connection flight they charged me for the carry-on that was included and approved on my previous lufthansa flight. that lady was also rude seems like lufthansa only hires disrespectful people worst travel experience of my life. honestly not sure what to do

Google spent 15 years exclusively hiring people with zero product sense

This beam contains enough energy to destroy a planet, but these guys are protected by their polyester uniforms?

These do exist, but they are off the beaten path, not in major cities, and you have to know where to look. It takes effort to find true luxury boutique travel experiences now.

@TeleHInvesting I think they also mentioned they haven’t baked any of the Medicare bridge into current projections, is that correct? If so maybe there’s a little extra cushion there if they can get that launched, even if they slightly miss on other angles?

You are spot on! Current state they would not be able to manufacture them. Justin has been talking about peptides since mid 2025 in interviews and also mentioned that they would be ready to launch peptides if they were permitted for compounding (through partner pharmacies as you noted) in the Q4 earnings call. I have followed this company for some time and just felt like there could have been more said in the earnings call. Since Q4 Justin's new buzzword is AI. I would have liked to hear more on how they plan to go from 48.6m (midpoint) in Q2 to ~63m by Q4. That is a massive revenue ramp and we basically got that insurance adoption is going to bridge that gap. It was not a bad quarter and I enjoyed listening to the new CFO. I would have liked them to reaffirm that there are several "other bets" to include B2B signing, peptides (pending approval), and new verticals. Did you listen to the call? If so what were your thoughts? We did get some of this, but i feel like management did a poor job clearly explaining the Q2 drawdown and then how the hockey stick ramp would take place in H2.

I spent the evening with Claude modeling $LFMD FY26 as something did not add up with the Q2 guide with full year unchanged. Insurance is very complex and though this is a base case modeling, there is execution risk. The elephant in the room.... how could Q2 be down in revenue if they are adding all these subs? Piecing together managements commentary as well as multiple data sources, I believe I can see the gap now. 1. $LFMD launched the weight management program at $150 monthly. Due to increased competition this was lowered to $75 to stay competitive against the likes of $HIMS and Ro. This is the first gap. You had half a quarter at $150 and now we are operating solely at $75 per month. This causes a 3.6m headwind Q/Q, but it allows them to still capture customers. 2. $LFMD is still rolling off individuals on the legacy compounded solution. They officially stopped offering this beginning of Q2 2025. This means if individuals were on an annual plan, we should see the last ones rolling off in Q2. This is a 3.8m headwind, but would start clean in Q3. $LFMD could be growing durable revenue subs and it is being overshadowed by these headwinds. If Q2 is ~49m how in the world will they hit their full year target? Management gave the answers in the call, but it was not as clear as I would have liked. Insurance models are very complex and I understand why $HIMS decided to bypass it. The modeling is much harder as you have to deal with collection rates and there is a lot of execution risk. Justin eluded to insurance patients having better unit economics but at the cost of lower revenue. They stated they are still optimizing their RCM modeling. Basically meaning they need to fine tune the insurance side to ensure they are getting reimbursements. I have modeled the collection rate, and this is also why revenue can be rather lumpy while this is optimized. This modeling assumes no major B2B signing or anything to do with peptides. It stays very conservative on the medicare side but assumes they get insurance dialed in by Q3. $LFMD's model is not as clean as it used to be and that is the world of the healthcare system. Management told us everything we needed to know, but it was very hard to follow during the first listen. If you have any questions on the modeling feel free to reach out! Not the guide I was looking for, but the numbers do make sense when you dive into the data. If you made it this far, you are a true $LFMD bull and I appreciate you for reading. Cheers!

@TeleHInvesting I wasn’t aware they were actively working on anything to take advantage of the late July peptide decision, and if I recall Justin even said it “has no impact” on them at all. Agree they are asking us to put a lot of faith in them to achieve that full H2 ramp with the low Q2 guide

@TeleHInvesting Yeah, I assume we're going to hear a lot of questions about weight loss margin and CAC, which might be what's hiding here

Completely agree. If subscriber growth has been so good I am curious why the midpoint is a Q/Q decline. This could be due to them lowering the subscription pricing to stay competitive. I am fine sacrificing near term to acquire the customer. Hopefully we get this all answered on the call

$LFMD Initial reactions are solid Q1. Margins look great and subscriber growth is trending the right way. The fall AH has been on extraordinary low volume. A similar thing happened with $TDOC on their earnings. My biggest complaint.... This is very weak Q2 guide for what I was expecting. Will want to hear management's commentary on this.

@samswoora Like an uncontacted tribe somewhere in the amazon rainforest

I wonder if there are still people out there in the world completely coding by hand

@levelsio I have the Doorbell Lite and I like it

Anyone has the Unifi doorbell? Do you like it? I need two-way audio Right now I have a TAPO doorbell but you gotta keep charging it cause no power

Given Japan’s ability to obsess and perfect any niche interest, they’ll be more American than us within one generation!