Thomas McCutcheon

$TPB has best growth profile in consumer staples at the same valu as $PM $BF.B. Pouches growing sales at 25% quarterly, company growing sales at 10% quarterly. 20% of sales become net income. Company pivoting resources to all out growth in a gold rush scenario.

@lazereater My theory: Perhaps James took the 7.6M to be the full year estimate. Since the total was 8M(1.5+6.5) for the two quarters.

@tmccutcheon3 What is really funny about this is that slotting fees in Q3 were disclosed as $1.5MM and he is saying it was way low because in Q4 they had more that $5MM in slotting fees than paid in Q3. Last I checked $7.6MM is > $6.5MM.

I got a message back from $TPB IR dept about the slotting fees/contra revenue situation for Q4

@lazereater That was an excellent find in the language. I’m sure the difference was caused by rounding.

@tmccutcheon3 Call excerpt: “Both FRE and ALP have cultivated strong brand identities that resonate with their respective consumer bases. During the quarter, net white pouch sales increased by 266% year over year and gross sales increased 337%.” If you do the math, the deta is $7.6 million

@UncleInvest We’re beating the pants off of $BTI $PM and $MO and stealing market share. I got an email reply from IR at $TPB. Slotting fees had an almost $5M delta between q3&q4. This implies we had 25% quarterly growth in Q4. Accumulating more.

$TPB sold off after earnings. The price action doesn't mean anything, what is important is in the earnings report. We got new information about the pouch market from the management. They are investing heavily into their salesforce to get product out. This makes the financials look soft, their SGA is high and free cash flow is low. They need to spend to grow. What could you make investing in this stock for the next 5 years? They are projecting a 10% share of a $10B market in the pouch market. This is the est. for 2030. If you project out the revenue for the entire company at a 6X multiple, you get a CAGR of 40%.

@lazereater Where did you get that number from? I haven’t seen the contra revenue break out in the 8k, transcript, or press release.

So why the big draw down on $TPB? I think it arises out of a misunderstanging of contra-revenues that are dominated by slotting fees with very little price consessions. Contra Revenue was $7.6M in the quarter. Without it Nicotine Pouch sales would have been $48.9MM.

@lazereater Last Q, modern oral sales were 36.7M net, with 1.5Min contra revenue slotting fees. Does that mean pouch sales grew 28% quarter over quarter? $TPB

@tobaccoinsider 20% of gross sales ($45M) going to slotting fees as a contra revenue item. Growth has its costs

TPB: down c.23% following the Q4 2025 results $tpb Sales: +69.5% to $81Mn Modern Oral sales: +266% to $41.3Mn Adj. EBITDA: +14.4% to $30Mn Results summary: tobaccoinsider.com/turning-point-… Modern Oral (FRE/ALP) guidance disappoints: $180-$190Mn in FY26 vs. a current run-rate of $165Mn

Looks like $TPB is spending $45M on slotting fees in 2026. It also seems they are shuffling the companies sales force to focus on the nicotine pouch brands. Bullish

@UltimateTrad8r I’ve done the DD, and I bought another 500 shares this morning. Sometimes the market gives you gifts growing at 30% yearly with an addictive product

Damn $tpb 105 down 20%+ Headlines earnings were very good Didn't do #dd or check guidance Headlines good though

@ragingbullcap I had to call in to join. Info is in the press release

$TPB Am I insane or is there no link to the call on the website? Anyone have a link?

@HiddenRockCap That is an accurate ordering of their prospects at today’s prices.

Payment companies beaten to a pulp - 3 that look most intriguing to me currently: 1) Paypal $pypl 2) Fiserv $fisv 3) Global Payments $gpn Any other interesting names here?

Best thesis of 2025 goes to @lazereater ... literally nailed it on $TPB ... such a no brainer of a thesis ... stock is just boring ... just grinds higher

Organon $OGN will benefit from the tariff reduction on Naxolanon, Vtama, and Biosimilar sales in the US. Big news at 5x ebitda, and 2.5x cash flow. Could resume dividends in 2027 at 3.5x debt to ebitda

@tobaccoinsider Philip Morris didn’t create Marlboro until 1924. The Bonsack machine was invented in the 1880s. The dominant brand of nicotine pouches probably doesn’t exist yet. $MO $PM $BTI $TPB

Altria: “Expanded international nicotine pouch distribution to 40k stores” BAT’s international reach? 10.7 million outlets. Scale matters - and it takes decades to build.

@FTLOVInvesting @leevalueroach $TPB has been a 4 bagger in the past 18 months in tobacco industry as your assumption that ALL tobacco is harmful is wrong. $DALN sold out last year at 5x off its 2024 low in print media. I held both, and continue to hold $tpb

@leevalueroach Speaking to a few of these… - Tobacco kills its customers - Cannabis is a commodity - Chipotle (fast-casual) quality has plummeted - Have you been to a department store lately? - Print media….i honestly can’t recall the last time I’ve seen a newspaper for sale anywhere

Wall Street has given up on these industries. Which means they’re worth paying attention to: 1) Tobacco – single digit P/E, ESG-exiled 2)Office REITs – 20yr valuation lows 3)Legacy auto – GM at 8x earnings 4) Managed care – down 37%+ in 2025 5) Cannabis – down 80-90% from highs 6) Coal – structurally hated 7) Regional banks – post-SVB cheap 8) Fast-casual consumer spending fear 9) For-profit education – regulatory 10) Department stores – left for dead 11) Print media – almost extinct The best time to buy is when nobody wants to.

@dipinvest A lot of people showed their character talking about this situation over the past month or so. I’m glad @GSpier knows who his friends are now

Guy Spier is closing Aquamarine Capital. A true inspiration to many of us. A thoughtful decision. Health and family come first. Wishing you strength and a full recovery, Guy.

@boujee_banker @GSpier Grand Mal seizure led to them finding a brain tumor. Despite removal and treatment, it has recurred.

@tmccutcheon3 @GSpier What happened to him?

I’m sad to hear about @GSpier. Hopefully he will have people visit him in the same way his idol Charlie Munger was visited. I enjoyed your book Guy.

@hkuppy She is all about cutting the flowers to water the weeds