Tom Dwan

5.2K posts

Tom Dwan

Tom Dwan

@TomDwan

Las Vegas, NV Katılım Haziran 2010
632 Takip Edilen207.8K Takipçiler
Tom Dwan retweetledi
Run It Once Training
Run It Once Training@RunItOnce·
Yesterday, we sat down with @TomDwan for our 3rd conversation, and it didn't disappoint. We covered a lot of ground, but some notable topics included: • Why did Tom get access to private games that other pros didn't? • How people in poker can use their skills to excel in other industries? • The infamous J-4 hand • The Robl fold You can watch the recording of the Q&A here: once.run/TomTalksPoker
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Run It Once Training
Run It Once Training@RunItOnce·
From @TomDwan's recent Q&A - the story of how Phil Ivey got himself banned from one of the best private games in the world.
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@RunItOnce Haha funny clip. I told the story pretty accurate
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@polynoamial You guys tell the truth a lot more than Anthropic or XAI seem too. I don’t have much knowledge about Google/deepmind I’m hopeful they’re closer on that scale to OAI. We should have both what you suggest, and the public models playing. Along with more options
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
How about chip in X$, and ask the labs to match that with credits or cheaper rates etc for this specific task. And maybe in exchange point out some obvious leaks etc (they could then try to find where from a reasoning standpoint those came from)
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
Also, this should be good for the labs themselves (Longterm). Yes a lot of them hate telling the truth when mistakes are made. But this kind of situation is good for them to train models, and systems around how to more accurately assess those models confidence.
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
Ahh ok. Im happy to try to help you pressure the frontier labs to play ball. Some of them claim to be good enough for military targeting and stuff (even though awful mistakes seem to have happened), why not do a proper real test?
GTOWizard@GTOWizard

@TomDwan Great point, Tom. Running frontier LLMs at scale is expensive. That's why we use AIVAT, a variance reduction technique that achieves the same statistical significance in 10x fewer hands, so 5K is equivalent to ~50K raw hands.

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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@GTOWizard Was this an automated response? What about doing more hands instead of the “luck-adjusted” bs hahaha. It’s still cool regardless obv tho, happy you guys did this
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GTOWizard
GTOWizard@GTOWizard·
Results (luck-adjusted bb/100): #1 GPT-5.3 XHigh Reasoning: -16.0 #2 GPT-5.4 XHigh Reasoning: -17.8 #4 Claude Opus 4.6: -20.4 #6 Gemini 3.1 Pro: -30.8 #12 Grok 4 High Reasoning: -60.0 #15 GPT-4: -136.2 A top pro winning at 4 bb/100 is considered elite. The best LLM loses at 4x that rate. Grok 4 at -60.0 performs nearly the same as a strategy that simply folds every single hand (-64.6).
GTOWizard tweet media
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GTOWizard
GTOWizard@GTOWizard·
We benchmarked every major AI model at poker. GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3.1 Pro, Grok 4 and more. All played 5,000 hands of heads-up no-limit against our state-of-the-art poker agent. Every single one lost. Here's the full breakdown 🧵
GTOWizard tweet media
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
And don’t do “luck adjusted” just do enough hands that the variance smoothes out and you can say who won/lost more. Should be trivial to do mil hands if really wanna limit variance no?
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Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
Ordering CZ’s book and gonna read it.
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Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
I can understand at least some of why both Star and Cz are upset. I hope they both take some deep breaths. They both follow me, that feels cool- I hope neither of them tilts and unfollows 😂.
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
As one of the few foreigners who knows (almost) all of the story of china’s🇨🇳 crypto crackdown, it’s not even close to accurate to say star reported Li Lin
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
I saw @senortilt teach our drunk friend blackjack once…
Señor Tilt@senortilt

Hey @KylieJenner — I’m Sam Kiki. I hold the record for the most ever won in 17 seasons on High Stakes Poker. I also hold the record for largest single day win. I, too, like splashy pots. I have a seat and $500k with your name on it. Bring @RealChalamet. I’ll teach you both everything the @VanityFair video left out. Then we can all compete on @PokerGO with a few of our mutual friends.

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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@natseckatrina Our country, and the world- could use more well intentioned actions (even small ones) like this.
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NatSecKatrina
NatSecKatrina@natseckatrina·
I firmly believe that in America, competition is a good thing. We should want patriotic, experienced leaders like Anthropic's Tarun Chhabra helping to steer the trajectory of democratic AI. Though we are competitors because we work for competing frontier AI labs, one thing we share in common is a sincere belief that America's prosperity and security depends, in part, on the American AI industry continuing to lead on this technology.
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Tom Dwan retweetledi
Barack Obama
Barack Obama@BarackObama·
Bob Mueller was one of the finest directors in the history of the FBI, transforming the bureau after 9/11 and saving countless lives. But it was his relentless commitment to the rule of law and his unwavering belief in our bedrock values that made him one of the most respected public servants of our time. Michelle and I send our condolences to Bob’s family, and everyone who knew and admired him.
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Tom Dwan retweetledi
George W. Bush Presidential Center
George W. Bush Presidential Center@TheBushCenter·
Statement by President George W. Bush on Robert Mueller: "Laura and I are deeply saddened by the loss of Robert Mueller. Bob dedicated his life to public service. As a Marine in Vietnam, he proved he was ready for tough assignments. He earned a Bronze Star and a Purple Heart before returning home to pursue law. In 2001, only one week into the job as the 6th Director of the F.B.I., Bob transitioned the agency mission to protecting the homeland after September 11. He led the agency effectively, helping prevent another terrorist attack on U.S. soil. Laura and I send our heartfelt sympathy to his wife of nearly 60 years, Ann, and the Mueller family."
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@jJett45 @junglemandan Lol we are doing a stream… it’s (at least mostly) not about our stuff between each other, we can text or call about that
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jJett
jJett@jJett45·
@TomDwan @junglemandan At this point just talk to him publicly and directly so there’s no more grey area for everyone else or stfu. Shady, scammy people hide behind semantics and technicalities.
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
Sometimes mistakes are made. In my opinion, one of the best ways to define or judge something, are how those mistakes are owned and acknowledged and dealt with. I’ve never met someone perfect. Even our dog 🐕 , much as I love her, makes mistakes.
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Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
@junglemandan Most of these mechanisms for judgement, have their flaws. Any system is imperfect. You still need them. As a person, a city, a business, a country etc. With @GTOWizard help we plan to discuss (from very different viewpoints) some of these and related topics
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Tom Dwan
Tom Dwan@TomDwan·
A follow up to this, and related thing, which I’ll soon discuss some of with @junglemandan , is that I try to not judge others. There’s often context we are missing. Sometimes people need to, sometimes society needs to. That’s why different countries have legal systems
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Keşfet

@RunItOnce @polynoamial @GTOWizard @senortilt @natseckatrina @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13