Tom Herrick

@stoolpresidente How so? Spurs guards reduced SGA’s metrics and game play by 30%. Can slow Brunson down (he’ll still get his) but spurs core > knicks core

I think the Knicks are gonna beat the Spurs. I hope I’m wrong but Brunson is an absolute nightmare for them. At best this series is a coin flip. Odds are way off. Real ball knowers know this.

@KobeissiLetter Thoughts on where oil opens up?

EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL: 1. Extension of Iran War ceasefire for another 60 days 2. Strait of Hormuz reopened for the 60-day period 3. Iran would be able to freely sell oil during the period 4. US would lift blockade on Iranian ports and unfreeze some Iranian funds 5. US would issue some sanction waivers on Iranian oil 6. Draft MOU includes statement that war between Israel and Lebanon would end 7. Negotiations would then be held regarding Iran's nuclear program The draft MOU includes commitments from Iran to never pursue nuclear weapons, negotiate over a suspension of uranium enrichment, and removal of its highly enriched uranium, US officials told Axios. The situation remains fluid amid the high-stakes negotiations.

might change my name to Wemby’s and only serve french fries after last night’s game

Keldon Johnson on his role with the @spurs: “I remember a couple years ago, I had a hard conversation with Pop. One morning, we were getting ready to play Dallas, and he pulled me to the side and told me that he thought it would be best for the team if I started coming off the bench. I said, ‘Yeah, of course. Whatever’s best for the team, I’ll do it.’ And I truly meant that, too. But I’m also just human, man. And I was like 24 years old. If I said that I fully bought into this role from the jump, I’d be lying. I had averaged 22 points in the NBA. I’d won a gold medal with Team USA at the Olympics. So I just didn’t understand. I couldn’t wrap my head around it. And ultimately, I didn’t take it well. I sulked. I let the outside noise affect my play. I didn’t present the best version of myself as I was coming off the bench for the rest of that season. And I knew that I was much better than that. I’ve been reflecting on that part of my journey a lot lately, with the position we’re in right now. To backtrack a little bit…. When I was drafted in 2019, that was probably one of the most stressful nights of my life. I’d had a great year at Kentucky, and I thought I was going 9 or 10. In my mind, my floor was 15 to Detroit. The crazy thing is, I didn’t even work out for San Antonio. We talked a little bit on FaceTime, but I honestly didn’t think I’d still be on the board at 19 when the Spurs picked. Definitely not at 29, where I ended up going. I don’t know why I slipped so much, but thank God I did, because I landed at a proven organization with vets who could mold me. That situation could have gone one of two ways. Thankfully, it went the good way. Dejounte was young, too, but he knew the ropes better than me, and he made sure that I did everything the right way. I can’t thank him enough to this day for how much he’s helped my career. Same thing with DeMar DeRozan. Those guys really embraced me and took me under their wing as a young guy, and showed me how it was done. I feel like I had such a great group of vets, whether it was LaMarcus Aldridge, Patty Mills, Rudy Gay — all those guys went out their way to make sure I was solid. I feel like they knew how good I could be before I even knew how good I could be. They didn’t let me skip any steps, which was huge for my career early on. And yeah, fast-forward to summer 2024, and I got to thinking back on my first couple years here in San Antonio, and how I could get that spark back, get back to being me. That’s when I started to see the bigger picture. We had picks. There were all these signs that we were building something that was gonna be special, all these bright green flags. But there was this one red flag. Me. In that moment, I had to take a hard look in the mirror. And man, I just got embarrassed. I hated that feeling — the feeling that I had let my vets down, and especially let my younger teammates down. This organization believed in me since day one, when Pop and our GM at the time R.C. Buford took a leap of faith on a player who was sliding in the draft and didn’t even have a workout at their facility. They had a plan, and I was a big piece of that plan. I just needed to get out of my own way. Period. I knew that I could either be the person who tries to fight the change, who makes it about them and their ego, and tries to do everything their way (which never really works). Or, I could trust the process. And the Spurs never gave me a reason not to trust it. So I bought into my role, and I put my best foot forward each and every night. Whatever I had to do to be the best version of myself, I did it. And I feel like this season has been a testament to that. I’m just really at home here. I think that’s probably obvious, right? The cowboy hat isn’t a gimmick. San Antonio is all me. Being a country boy, that’s just a part of who I am. From Huntington Prep to Oak Hill Academy to Kentucky, I feel like I just carried that country boy vibe with me everywhere I went.” playerstribu.ne/KJ

@KobeissiLetter Tim Apple is still the best name ever given

BREAKING: President Trump says "the great" Jensen Huang of Nvidia, $NVDA, is currently on the Air Force One with him on the way to China. Trump says Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, David Solomon, and many other CEOs are joining him on the trip.

@rexsalisbury Report Thanks for your insights.

👀 if you want the report, comment "report". it is public but finicky to find and download...

Just in - @ereborbank posted their 1st call report. In 7 weeks since opening, they've already hit $1.1 billion in deposits. unprecedented growth for a de novo (or fintech) For comparison - Grasshopper Bank (also a tech-focused NYC de novo) took 7 years to reach the same number, and only got there via acquisition - Square Financial Services, even with Block's enormous merchant base, sits at $495M after 5 years. - Mercury took 4 years - Chime took 6 At $1 billion this makes them ~1,000th largest bank in America (out of ~4,500). If they want to be a top 100 bank, thats ~$20 billion of deposits. 5% of the way there in 7 weeks. Next up...what do they do with those deposits? Will be watching how loans ramp from here!

@TKLSubscribers Can you share how you are expressing your natgas view? ETF? Futures? Thanks!

@stoolpresidente Well said

I’m not the biggest Ken Griffin fan from the GameStop saga days. But I’d love for him to give Zohran a big fuck you and pull his construction plans and pull the hundreds of millions he pays in taxes and charity. NYC officials are hilarious. All they do is say they hate rich peole and then beg them to stay and pay for all their useless shit. There was zero reason for Zohran to antagonize Griffin except to appease his yellow and purple haired communist base. He could have still initiated the tax without trying to be Mr Cool Guy Communist and rubbing people’s faces in it. Why would any rich person stay there? NYC wanted a communist mayor. They got a communist mayor.

@TKLSubscribers Wha weakness do you need to see to start buying? Or are you buying at these levels?

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@KobeissiLetter Weak macro data, surging oil, modestly rising yields, and likely a HOT CPI report tomorrow morning, yet the market is green. Make it make sense?

Absolutely incredible: US oil prices are now nearing $103/barrel and have been rising at a pace of $1/hour since 6 AM ET. This puts oil prices +12% above the low seen just ~24 hours ago as ceasefire doubts have grown. Meanwhile, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister announced that Iran was "on the verge" of responding to "ceasefire violations" last night, but Pakistan intervened. Iran is also not allowing more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or just ~10% of pre-war levels. This is in sharp contrast to President Trump's claims that Iran would implement a "complete and immediate" opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Triple digit oil prices are back in full-swing.

@TKLSubscribers How are you expressing nat gas exposure? Thanks!

@KobeissiLetter Do you have any affiliation with “The Hormuz Letter”? They look very similar to your account in terms of image, writing style, etc.

ANNOUNCEMENT: Yesterday, the below user plagiarized our analysis and posted our "Conflict Playbook" as their own work. Following formal legal notice from The Kobeissi Letter's counsel, the user has removed the post and acknowledged the unauthorized use of our content. The user has further agreed to cease all reproduction and distribution of our intellectual property without authorization. This serves as a reminder that all content published by The Kobeissi Letter is protected and actively monitored. We are also actively identifying and pursuing accounts and individuals engaging in impersonation or misrepresentation of our brand. We will continue to pursue enforcement actions against any unauthorized use of our work, brand, and image, including through formal takedown procedures and all available legal remedies. Thank you.

@KobeissiLetter Does Pezeshkian have authority to negotiate on behalf of Iran? Who is the true leader of Iran? Seems like a major unknown and reason for near-term volatility.

BREAKING: Iran's President Pezeshkian says Iran is ready to end the war with the US but wants guarantees. US stocks are surging on the news.

@TKL_Adam Love your work. You’re a true wizard and your market timing has been incredible. How do you foresee the administration / Fed intervening?

12 hours later, and the US 2Y Note Yield is up to 4.00%, now up nearly +60 basis points since the Iran War began, moving in a literal straight-line higher. Inflation expectations have become so bad that the market is trading like an emergency Fed rate hike is imminent. If you haven't read our analysis below, you should do so now. Without intervention, the bond market is nearing a full-blown crisis.

@KobeissiLetter Fantastic insights as always. Where are we in playbook?

Our most frequent question right now: President Trump said the war is ending "very soon," and the IEA and the US are releasing 572 million barrels of oil reserves. So, why are oil prices nearing $100/barrel again? In the lead-up to Sunday night's historic $30+ rally in oil prices to $120/barrel, uncertainty was at record highs. The reason behind this rally was largely that President Trump was not signaling how long the Iran war would last. Since then, the ONLY factor that has changed is that President Trump has said the war will be over "pretty quickly." However, this also implies that military action will likely continue until at least the end of March. Meanwhile, as Iran calls for oil prices to rise toward $200/barrel, storage is filling up in Gulf countries and nearly 20 million barrels of daily supply remain off the market. On top of this, restarting oil production in the Gulf will not be simple. The path to restoring full output is now expected to take months. At its core, the only material difference between now and Monday is President Trump's reassurance that the war will not last "forever." We expect more comments like this from the Trump Administration as oil prices near $100/barrel. This would mirror the strategy used during the trade war, when hints of a "trade deal" often emerged as market volatility reached unsustainable levels. Markets are a product of sentiment and expectation.

@elonmusk @MayorFrey @MayorFrey needs to be investigated alongside @GovTimWalz for obstruction of justice

@MayorFrey You are a pathetic donkey

I am aware of a shooting involving an ICE agent at 34th Street & Portland. The presence of federal immigration enforcement agents is causing chaos in our city. We’re demanding ICE to leave the city immediately. We stand rock solid with our immigrant and refugee communities.

Hero. 🙏🏻

Top 1 American moment when Joey Chestnut beat up a protestor mid hot dog eating contest.

The Total Package 🤘 @CoachSark x @TexasLonghorns