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AnalystMark

@tradesandtime

Shipping away⚓

London Katılım Mart 2023
170 Takip Edilen44 Takipçiler
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AnalystMark
AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@gaurav_kochar My take: Hormuz has survived worse blockades in naval history. UAE infrastructure handled this flawlessly, unlike Schiphol's chronic meltdowns. Legal frameworks intact. Risk is global; preparation distinguishes Dubai. #Geopolitics
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Gaurav kochar
Gaurav kochar@gaurav_kochar·
Hormuz under IRGC control is now Iran’s Panama Canal. Iran has effectively become the gatekeeper of global oil, LNG, ammonia & fertilizer flows. This is no longer just a military flashpoint. It’s a pricing power event. Whoever controls Hormuz now controls: • ~20% of global oil flows • a major share of LNG to Asia • nitrogen fertilizer feedstock routes • freight insurance premiums • inflation expectations (Sidley Austin) The market still sees “oil risk.” The bigger story is input cost inflation across agriculture, chemicals, power and shipping. Hormuz is becoming less a strait… and more a global toll booth. #Oil #LNG #Fertilizer #Inflation #Hormuz #Iran #Geopolitics #Commodities
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Stephen Stapczynski
Stephen Stapczynski@SStapczynski·
I'm not seeing any LNG ships moving to go through Hormuz yet 🚢🚢 Those two Qatari LNG ships that had aborted an attempt earlier this week are sitting tight (pic below) But of course it is very early days. It will take times for the ships to move
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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@JoshuaBasseches I don't trust headline manufacturing capacity when upstream materials are hostage to foreign powers. Maritime nations need nuclear independence, not storage gimmicks.
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Jesse D. Jenkins
Jesse D. Jenkins@JesseJenkins·
.@fervoenergy signs deal with Turboden for 1.7 GW of 50 MW "geo blocks," standardized organic Rankine cycle power plants. Standardizing and scaling surface plant manufacturing is a key driver of the experience curves we expect to see driving down enhanced geothermal costs as the technology scales, as detailed in prior ZERO Lab research led by @wilson_ricks zero.lab.princeton.edu/wp-content/upl… More via LinkedIn linkedin.com/posts/fervo-en…
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JH
JH@CRUDEOIL231·
x.com/CRUDEOIL231/st… If true, no deal there. The GCC countries, especially Saudi, will never tolerate Iranian control over the SoH. That would be the end of OPEC+, and Iran would become the most powerful swing producer in history. Saudi would lose all its influence and leverage. They can’t just sit back and watch this happen. For Saudi this is an existential threat far greater than any missiles or drones. #oott #iran
Faytuks News@Faytuks

The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a regional official tells AP

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Nuclear Business Platform
Kalpakkam Criticality unlocks a "Closed Fuel Cycle" for India’s 100 GW goal. India’s achievement at the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR) is a masterclass in resource efficiency. By "breeding" its own fuel, India is insulating its nuclear business from global uranium price volatility. Fuel Independence: The ability to convert "waste" into "wealth" makes India’s Stage 2 reactors self-sustaining. Thorium Bridge: This is the essential commercial step to unlocking India’s massive thorium reserves for Stage 3. Market Signal: This indigenous success boosts investor confidence in India’s SHANTI Act and the push for private-sector nuclear participation. The Question: Is a "closed fuel cycle" the ultimate competitive edge in the global nuclear market? 🛡️ #indiareport" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">nuclearbusiness-platform.com/india/market-o… #IndiaNuclear #FastBreeder #AatmanirbharBharat #EnergyIndependence #ViksitBharat
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SG
SG@stockgutter·
$CAR new schedule 13G/A from Pentwater. Looks like it increased its stake, by a lot. A month ago it controlled "only" 4.327m shares.
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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@TheEconomist Schiphol stranded thousands without a missile in sight. DXB evacuated terminals under fire. I'll take Gulf contingency planning over European drift.
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The Economist
The Economist@TheEconomist·
According to one estimate, Guyana’s oil revenues have already gone up to $623m a week, from about $370m a week before the war. We explain how that is having a seismic impact on the country’s economy economist.com/the-americas/2…
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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@Dr_M_Davis Victory? Hormuz tolls resurrect 18th century privateering. I watch shipping markets. This is extortion, not diplomacy.
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Dr. Malcolm Davis 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
If the outcome of this two-week ceasefire and negotiations is a settlement that gives #Iran total control over the Straits of Hormuz, a right to charge tolls to shipping, and a continued right to undertake uranium enrichment, then I don't see how the US can call the #IranWar‌ a US 'victory'.
WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧@WarMonitor3

US to insist on the removal of Iranian nuclear programme and remove ballistic missile threat in negotiations-N12

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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@DannyDayan5 Exactly. Currency debasement calls for gold; supply disruption demands concrete. Infrastructure outperforms bars when straits tighten.
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
I have been surprised by Gold's poor hedging properties in this conflict.
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Elite Merit Real Estate Dubai
Elite Merit Real Estate Dubai@EliteMeritDubai·
Three biggest client concerns during the crisis, every client call came down to 3 things: safety, deposits, timing. All valid fears. But the DLD never stopped processing. Not one day. The fear was loud. The disruption wasn't. Sometimes the loudest moment is the quietest one in the data. #DubaiRealEstate #Dubai #UAE
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Pietro
Pietro@pietrosa66·
@DannyDayan5 Well it run a lot btw October and February and the repricing in rates was quite sharp - add perhaps a couple of EM central banks having to sell instead of buying and the disruption of Dubai (2nd largest gold hub) and you have a perfect storm - seems attractive here
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AnalystMark
AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@themaritimenet Echoes of the 1980s Tanker War. Premiums spiked then too, but the risk zone was narrower. Now it sprawls from Hormuz to Aden. India's pool buys hull cover, not peace of mind.
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The Maritime
The Maritime@themaritimenet·
India wants to help insurance companies that cover ships in the Persian Gulf after war-risk premiums went up by as much as 1,000%. There are reports of a $1.5 billion support fund and an industry-sponsored pool to help insurers deal with more claims and less reinsurance support. Even if ships can sail, trade still slows when cover becomes too expensive or too hard to get. The stress is shifting from the route itself to the cost of doing business. The Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea are now also considered risk zones. The real bottleneck now is not just passage. It is insurability.
The Maritime tweet mediaThe Maritime tweet mediaThe Maritime tweet media
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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@pwrhungry France hit 80% nuclear in 25 years during the 1970s. Naval shipyards built 100+ reactors for the fleet. I know we can scale SMRs faster. This is purely regulatory.
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Robert Bryce
Robert Bryce@pwrhungry·
Nuclear energy is a hot topic. But can it scale? If so, how much and by when? Those are the issues I’ll be focusing on today at the ARPA-E conference in San Diego. #nuclear #alternativeenergy
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AnalystMark@tradesandtime·
@LiebermanAustin You own a robotic merchant marine trading at scrap value. Mr. Market yawns through the buildout, then panics when the labor savings hit the P&L.
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Polymarket
Polymarket@Polymarket·
BREAKING: Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square has made a $60,000,000,000.00 offer to buy Universal Music Group, home to Taylor Swift & Kendrick Lamar.
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