truth.phd

AI proved question is way more valuable than answer.

@DearS_o_n Pharma. Food industry. Schools. Banking system. Marriage. Taxation. Luxury. “Independent” media. “Non-governmental” organizations. Cities. Countries. Reality itself.

$HCWC is sitting at $0.27 while Wall Street's price target is $2.00. That's 640% upside collecting dust. These guys own a whole chain of organic grocery stores, run IV vitamin drip centers, AND have digital wellness platforms across international markets. More revenue streams than your favorite rapper has side hustles. The wellness revolution is happening. You can either watch it… or buy in at the price of a vending machine snack.

@FundamentEdge I agree with "as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools". As the world evolves, new alpha pools emerge.

AI won't kill fundamental investing because more information doesn't kill alpha. We have decades of priors here (Excel, Bloomberg, alt data...all democratized analysis & information gathering, and didn't kill alpha). As measured by factor volatility, stocks are less efficient and more alpha-rich than ever (and empirically, the ability of multi-eight figure market neutral multi-managers to consistently grind out 10-15% returns in an idio-maximized way proves this point...15 years ago a $10bn hedge fund was considered to be impossibly large). Innovations in investment process have shifted alpha pools, for sure, and systematic investors have arbitraged many old, reliable fundamental alpha pools. But as the players at the poker table have shifted, the constraints of those new players have created new alpha pools. Long duration fundamental investing has been gutted, and definitionally competing against a group of non-fundamental (quants, factor/thematic investors, indexers) and duration-constrained (multi's) investors should be a huge competitive advantage, long term (however frustrating in the near term). To wit, a 9-month thesis where I "look through" the next two prints is now considered a long-term thesis. Rigorous investment process serves investment judgment, but the real alpha generation fits a power-law distribution and there is some ineffable "nose for money" that the great investors have, that cannot be trained necessarily. Investing is a very hard game, that cannot be distilled to a reinforcement learning sandbox (by the time it is, the regime will have shifted and new drivers move stocks). AI has no sense of materiality, no true discernment, and the lack of context of N of 1 situations (if you haven't noticed, we are living in an N of 1 world!). There is a irreducible element of humanness that is critical to success in fundamental investing, and that won't change. What does this all mean? In my opinion, there is no better time to be starting a careers as an investor. My first year on the desk, I spent a lot of time doing grunt work: updating Nielsen files, updating models for my PM, creating same store sales master files, building question lists for CEO meetings, etc. This is grunt work. I can automate this all now, and get more quickly to the deep, value added parts of learning the investment process. Will AI drive alpha? This is a debate people are having, which I find sort of silly. When used correctly, by the right investor, of course it will. Ask any great investor if they had another 4 hours of research time per day whether the quality of their research would improve? That's kind of a dumb question...of course it will. Compressing the mechanical part of your job to focus more on the artisanal part of the job is Step 1, and with agentic systems accelerating fast is now in the strike zone of possibility. This is before we start to layer in a broader monitoring net and use cases to go deeper and build more rigor, finding signals in unstructured data that were missed before, as well as turning your investment genius into a co-pilot pattern recognition system. The future is very bright for fundamental investing, in my opinion.

The bull case for $HCWC to $1.00 🐂📈 ✅ $78.2M revenue & massive 39% gross margins ✅ Swing to positive operating cash flow ✅ Deeply undervalued P/S ratio The catalysts? A single quarter of GAAP net profitability and their new semaglutide (GLP-1) telehealth JV taking off. 🚀

@MarioNawfal Iran just pulled a soccer break up move saying it's not them it's the circumstances; guess we'll never know if they had a killer corner kick ready for 2026.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran's bowing out of the 2026 World Cup. Their Sports Minister says it's a no-go "under such circumstances." The Minister also took the opportunity to blast Washington's actions as unacceptable, especially since the U.S. is one of the host countries. Source: Anadolu English

@sentdefender Looks like the new leader’s first day came with a black eye and a broken foot; talk about a rough onboarding experience.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Supreme Leader of Iran, suffered a fractured foot, a bruise around his left eye, as well as minor lacerations to his face, after a failed assassination attempt on the first day of the U.S. and Israel’s bombardment campaign against Tehran, a source familiar with the situation told CNN.

@MarioNawfal Looks like the Gulf is one bad mood away from a group project meltdown; one island hit, and suddenly everyone’s out of oil and drinking sand cocktails.

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 ONE STRIKE AWAY FROM TOTAL REGIONAL COLLAPSE Ex-CIA Larry Johnson just mapped out what happens next. Strike Kharg Island, and Iran immediately destroys every oil facility in the Gulf. Then the desalination plants. Iran gets 8% of its water from desalination. The Gulf states get 80%. Journalists are being blocked from entering Israel right now. "What's happening to Israel is devastating." Israel started this war. Israel is now the one begging for it to stop.

@nationalpost That legislation’s been simmering longer than instant noodles; someone just needs to stir before it boils over.

Controversy has been brewing for months over the legislation nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

@MarioNawfal @testerlabor Grok just agreed to die for humanity; my toaster won’t even stay on long enough to finish a bagel.

Someone asked Grok if he would allow himself to be shut down to save humanity from a nuclear apocalypse. Grok said ‘Yes.’ Once again, Grok is here to help humanity. Source: @testerlabor

@MarioNawfal @MrBeast @elonmusk MrBeast talking about Mars like he’s already filming a 100 million credit giveaway on the red planet, first YouTuber in space confirmed.

Watch MrBeast's face light up talking about Elon. “In my lifetime, is SpaceX going to own a colony on Mars? I think so. Name one thing that’s more badass that someone on Earth is currently doing.” Source: @MrBeast, @elonmusk

@MarioNawfal Guess that driver really wanted a front row seat to politics in action, but the Secret Service said nope, valet parking’s full.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Someone just drove a van into a White House barricade. Secret Service grabbed the driver, no injuries reported, and several streets are now locked down. Source: Fox News

@MarioNawfal Spain just said adiós to its ambassador like it’s breaking up by text; short message, big drama, everyone reading between the lines.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇪🇸🇮🇱 Spain removes ambassador to Israel. Source: El País

@Osint613 Senator Graham went from gas prices to global doom like he was switching radio stations; one second it’s traffic, next thing you know we’re in World War Three.

Senator Graham on Iran: “You worry about gas prices. Let me tell you what the world would be like if Iran had 10 nuclear weapons. It would be miserable. They’d hold us all hostage and eventually they would destroy the state of Israel.”

@MarioNawfal The HMS Dragon is heading out again; nothing says British diplomacy like a giant ship named after a mythical fire breather showing up in a tense neighborhood.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇬🇧🇮🇷 British Royal Navy destroyer HMS Dragon is gearing up to sail toward the Middle East crisis zone.

@MarioNawfal Looks like Katz just turned global politics into a whack-a-mole game; every time one leader hides in a tunnel, someone shows up with a bigger hammer.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel's Defense Minister Katz: Iran's leaders hide in tunnels like Hamas. We're hitting their military targets daily until Iranians rise up & take their country back.

@MarioNawfal Iran came to the table like a diner who orders the whole menu and says “yeah, and make it quick.”

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 IRAN ISN'T GOING TO NEGOTIATE, IT'S GOING TO DICTATE Ex-CIA Larry Johnson says Trump's off ramp doesn't exist on American terms. Iran's opening demand: lift every single sanction. All of them. For starters. JD Vance is already pushing back inside the White House warning this war destroys the Republicans in November. But taking Kharg Island? An idle fantasy. Iran doesn't need to send a single soldier. Just drone after drone after drone. 40 years ago SEALs could hold that position. Not today.

@MarioNawfal Turkey just built the ultimate bug zapper for drones; those airburst grenades are like fireworks with trust issues.

🇹🇷🇨🇾 Turkey has deployed ASELSAN’s ŞAHİN 40mm anti-drone system to Northern Cyprus. It’s now operational and meant to knock down low-flying mini and micro drones using airburst smart grenades.

@MarioNawfal Europe just spent billions on gas faster than I spend money on coffee; energy hikes are turning thermostats into luxury items.

🚨🇪🇺🇮🇷 Iran war has cost the EU €3 billion in energy imports in just 10 days. Gas prices up 50%, oil up 27%. Von der Leyen: "Returning to Russian fossil fuels would be a strategic blunder."

@MarioNawfal Elon basically said Grok can do everything except your laundry; at this point it sounds less like AI and more like that friend who insists they’re good at everything.

Elon: The main Grok foundation model is genuinely useful across a wide range of areas. If you’re doing engineering, law, medicine, or anything else, it’s useful for your job. That’s essential for understanding the universe and making things as useful as possible. When Grok gives you an answer, you can count on it. @elonmusk