Greg
420 posts


@PeterDiamandis @elonmusk Extremely hard, costly and unlikely to happen. Chips don't survive long in space and making chips that can survive space radiation is 5,000x more expensive than regular chips.
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Sundar Pichai just said data centers in space will be "the new normal" within a decade. @elonmusk has been saying this for years. When the CEO of Google starts agreeing with Elon, pay attention. The orbital compute era is closer than you think.
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@GerberKawasaki You’re still miserable that they didn’t make you a director?
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@garyblack00 So move on Gary. Spend your time and resources on stocks that you love.
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There’s no question in my mind that unsupervised autonomy will become the dominant ride-hailing form within a few years. Ride hailing platforms with drivers will likely become extinct within 5 years. By extension, autonomous driving will become one of the most popular add-on options when buying or leasing new vehicles. Where I have always disagreed with bulls is about the level of competitive intensity in unsupervised autonomy. Unsupervised autonomy will become table stakes to survive; those that can’t master it will not stay in business. But to think $TSLA will be the only one to master and scale unsupervised autonomy when $GOOG $BIDU $PONY $WRD and $AMZN are already completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous trips per week without safety monitors is borderline head-in-the-sand delusional.
When modeling TSLA economics one can’t take a capacity-based approach (# trips/day x # miles/trip x (rev - costs) per mile x # days/year). Instead one must forecast TSLA ride hailing economics based on autonomous TAM x projected TSLA market shares by market based on relative cost advantage, brand equity, and likely scale up since that will approximate Tesla demand rather than capacity. Absent advertising, TSLA may solve for and scale up unsupervised autonomy the fastest of all OEMs but may not capture their share of demand since TSLA doesn’t have the skills to communicate with and educate mass consumers in the same way $AAPL did in cell phones.
Why does this matter? Stocks can’t sustain multiples of 200x+ EPS or 100x EV/EBITDA unless their franchises are uniquely scalable and unassailable. TSLA’s current 2026 P/E is 200x (rolling 4-qtr forward 190x) vs 2026-2030 forecasted compound EPS growth of +37% so a PEG of 5.4x. That math doesn’t work given PEGs of 2.0-2.5x for other megacap tech stocks. One can argue the market already discounts that TSLA will be one of a handful of OEMs that solves for generalized unsupervised autonomy. Hence our assertion that TSLA is a great company with a dominant franchise but a P/E that is way too rich.

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Tesla self-driving is a game-changer
Tesla@Tesla
FSD Supervised can give you back your freedom
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FSD Supervised today is a completely different experience compared to earlier versions
Nik Harris@nikkharris
we spend a good amount of time up in mendocino i remember being so impressed with autopilot and early versions of FSD but they were no match for the windy mountain roads just nails it now such a peaceful ride
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@garyblack00 Gary, you forgot to remind us today of your sale at $356 🤷♂️
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Be wary of posters on X who say “$TSLA is going to $x” without providing analytical support (DCF, P/E/G, SOTP) showing why. That’s just pumping the stock.
Our $310 PT is based on our 2030 Adj EPS est of $12.50 (vs $8.75 WS consensus), a 1.75x PEG and 25% long-term earnings growth = $550 value in 2030, discounted back to 2025 at a 13.6% cost of equity (4.0% 10yrTY, 6% equity risk premium, 1.6x beta) = ($550 / (1.136^4.5)) = $310.
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Some $TSLA bulls are hilarious. No worries if the new more affordable vehicle isn’t a new form factor - just cut costs and price and make it another Model Y trim and it will sell like hotcakes. Too bad any new volume will cannibalize higher-priced Model Y trims rather than add incremental volume. Remember what happened in 2023-2024 when TSLA cut prices: Volumes stagnated as competitors all matched the price cuts, avg price per unit sank 15-20% and earnings were decimated. I know, let’s not confuse everyone with numbers.
On autonomy, TSLA stock has performed poorly since the Austin robotaxi launch (TSLA -5.2%, NDX +7.4%), even before last night’s earnings disaster. The Austin robotaxi launch has been more Kabuki theater than actual launch. From the safety driver in the front passenger seat, armed with a kill switch on the door if the robotaxi got in trouble, to the hand selected social influencers who became the testimonial first riders, Austin has not been “selling fully autonomous rides” as promised on TSLA’s 1Q conference call - certainly not that can be leveraged to new markets at the flip of a switch, as was alluded. As even Elon acknowledged on the call last night, “[Tesla] will get to autonomy at scale in the second half of next year, certainly by the end of next year” which is a far cry from the perception of immediacy used to describe how robotaxi would be rolled out nationally in prior calls.
Finally, there’s the thorny issue of valuation which $TSLA uberbulls don’t even try to explain. Most high quality growth stocks ( $NVDA, $AMZN, $GOOG, $MSFT, $META) trade at 1.8x-2.2x forward PEGs - forward P/E divided by 5-year forward EPS growth. $TSLA is off the charts at around 5x PEG (2025 P/E of 160x vs 2025-2030 EPS growth of 30% CGR. Now I’m not married to P/E ratios even when adjusted for growth. But with so many other high quality growth stories around where revs and earnings are actually rising by 15-20% per year rather than falling, I’d rather pass on TSLA until it finds its growth path again.
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$TSLA Biased Influencers will NEVER tell you this fact, but Tesla's production is also "highly affected by export restrictions on rare earths," so "production delays and outages can no longer be ruled out" also applies to Tesla. Tesla is uniquely exposed to Trump's Tariff Wars 🚨
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
GERMAN AUTO LOBBY VDA: OUR INDUSTRY IS HIGHLY AFFECTED BY EXPORT RESTRICTIONS ON RARE EARTHS GERMANY'S VDA: PRODUCTION DELAYS AND OUTAGES CAN NO LONGER BE RULED OUT
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