tsukiema

@Dipper_pol best explanation of risk i have ever seen

Nassim Taleb asked a room full of quants: to trust an average, a normal bell curve needs ~30 data points. how many does an 80/20 "fat-tailed" world need? people guessed 200. 1,000. the real answer: 100 trillion. that's 10¹⁴ - because in fat-tailed data, one rare event dwarfs everything else, and until it shows up your sample is a lie. "you observe, you observe, you observe… until the crash." worse, the deception only runs one way. a wild distribution can disguise itself as calm - a calm one can't fake being wild. so the data almost always fools you downward, into thinking there's less risk than there is. the fix: stop estimating the average from the average. it doesn't work where it matters. ~25-min talk, free. Taleb on why your data is quietly lying about risk ↓

@RuujSs gud read ✍️

@0xTrackmind the tail risk always gets the unhedged

Benoit Mandelbrot, Yale professor, IBM Fellow, and inventor of fractals: "Every risk model at Citadel, Goldman and JPMorgan assumes markets are 'normal.' I proved they're wild. That one lie has vaporized hundreds of billions." This free TED talk catches Mandelbrot just months before he died. Nearly every risk model out there treats the market as calm and gentle. He proved the exact opposite: rough, jagged, savage, with extremes hitting far more often than any bell curve would ever allow. That gap isn't some academic footnote. Under the bell curve, 2008 should've been a once-in-a-billion-years fluke. Instead it shows up roughly every decade. Every VaR model whispering "you're fine" and every fund that got wiped out in a week were all leaning on the same broken assumption. Those wild days don't scatter randomly either, they cluster, which is exactly the "regime change" this thread is hunting for. None of this is fresh news. Mandelbrot spotted it in cotton prices back in the 1960s, gave this talk for free, and wrote an entire book laying it out for anyone willing to read. Same brutal lesson my article makes: the math has been sitting there for decades, ignored purely because it was inconvenient to believe. Here's what the regime thread won't say out loud. No model spots the wild day before it lands, the timing is unknowable by design. The real edge isn't forecasting the storm, it's sizing your bets so one wild day can never wipe you out. The math is free. Respecting the tails is the discipline almost nobody actually has.

@0xkvro it's all about repetition and execution over prediction

@crptAtlas bro, this is the true endgame of loop engineering..

@refudgio impressive...

OBSIDIAN'S CEO AND ANDREJ KARPATHY JUST QUIETLY KILLED THE SECOND BRAIN INDUSTRY it started as a single gist. 21 million people read it before anyone noticed what it actually meant the idea: stop treating your notes like a diary and start treating them like a codebase. Obsidian is the editor. Claude Code is the engineer working inside it. your notes are the thing being built three commands run the whole thing: one drops in anything, a video, a PDF, a random thought and splits it into small linked pieces that plug straight into what you already have written one lets you ask a question and get an answer pulled from your own words, your own pages, not a guess from a model that's never met you one runs quietly every week, hunts down the notes that contradict each other, deletes what's gone stale, and reconnects the orphaned pages nobody linked back then the Obsidian CEO shipped something that wasn't an "AI button" - five small skill files that teach Claude to speak Obsidian's own language natively. no broken links, no messy imports that repo hit 41,000 stars in weeks Karpathy pointed the whole thing at 100 of his own articles, 400,000 words, and just let it run. it links itself. it audits itself. it never sleeps no database. no subscription. just folders of text and an agent that does the one job humans always quit halfway through: keeping the filing system honest most vaults are graveyards. this one reads itself before you wake up

@caesar_aii 1960s...

@tsukiema_ love seeing where this all started

The Thinking Machine (Artificial Intelligence in the 1961): "Can machines really think?" This short film from 1961 is one of the first public discussions of AI. Straight interviews at MIT You see a computer playing checkers, translating Russian to English, and Claude Shannon and Oliver Selfridge explaining what intelligence would look like in a machine They predicted within 10 to 15 years machines would handle tasks once reserved for human intelligence Bookmark this. Its 3 minutes and worth more than most new docs

@Asteri_eth same

@tsukiema_ I like to watch this

@papa_couch if your agent tests without control it is just a p-hacking machine

Stanford researcher Yiqun Chen explained why hypothesis generation, selective inference, multiple testing, and false discoveries break statistical validity - long before LLM research agents became mainstream. Generate hypotheses > backtest > adjust thresholds > validate on holdout. That's the loop. Watch the talk, then build it yourself.

@Lummox_eth cz followed this rulebook perfectly in 2023

Warren Buffett in 1992 : "If you have a scandal on your hands, the best thing to do is lay out everything you know. Never lie under any circumstances. Don't pay any attention to the lawyers." In this 57-minute Q&A, Buffett explains how he handled the Salomon Brothers crisis under relentless press scrutiny. facts → full disclosure → constant updates → public trust A crisis-communications lesson that still holds 34 years later. Watch it, then read the article below for the practical framework.

@papa_couch 99% of backtests are just overfitting in disguise

@fluixoo history just loops in a different skin..

@tsukiema_ wow 1961 that's wild to think about

@kocer_eth +++

@tsukiema_ vintage ai clips are so fascinating to watch

@raidenfomo this right here is why defi was built

IN 1980 TWO BROTHERS ALMOST OWNED ALL THE SILVER ON EARTH. THE SYSTEM STOPPED THEM AND TURNED THEIR $10 BILLION INTO ZERO Texas oil heirs. they decided paper money was dying and started turning oil money into metal they bought silver at $2 an ounce. seven years later it touched $50 and their position was worth $10 billion they chartered Boeing 707s, loaded them with bars and flew the silver to vaults in Zurich, guarded by Texas cowboys then the exchange changed one rule: silver can only be sold now, not bought. the men who voted for that rule were sitting in shorts on the same silver one Thursday in March the price halved. the margin call was $100 million. the Fed arranged a $1.1 billion loan, not to save the brothers, to save the brokers they owed eight years later the brothers were bankrupt and banned from trading commodities for life. nobody who wrote the rule lost a cent the older brother told reporters: "a billion dollars isn't what it used to be" 18 minutes on the biggest trade ever killed by rewriting the rulebook. save it for the next time the rules change mid-game ↓

@iiiichigo_chan I am glad that I live in this wonderful time

@tsukiema_ people dreamed about AI since the old times.

@beamnxw the matrix code hasn't changed at all

@tsukiema_ wild to see how the questions we are asking now are literally the exact same ones from 1961☠️