
TB 🔜🫵💰
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TB 🔜🫵💰
@turtlebear
Marketing @levr_bet - the only sportsbook offering leverage on bets. MLB contributor @BlitzSM_ Views and opinions are my own NFA 🐢🐻
Picks & Analysis 👉 Katılım Mayıs 2014
499 Takip Edilen16.5K Takipçiler

We just missed a +17500 pick last week with a T2, here are my early thoughts on the Byron Nelson this week.
porcelaintalk.club/articles/pga/c…
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THE ONLY HOMERUN PARLAY YOU'LL NEED TODAY | Daily Dingers | May 15th x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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Sorry officer, I didn't know I couldn't do that.
Hunter Baumgardt@hunterbonair
William Contreras challenged a pitch that was called a ball and on the TV feed, it showed the call should be overturned to a strike. The home plate umpire turned his microphone on and said it was still a ball and the Brewers lost the challenge. Simply put, that can’t happen.
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Sure, here's 500.
Aberdeen, Abidjan, Abu Dhabi, Acapulco, Accra, Adelaide, Agra, Ahmedabad, Albany, Albuquerque, Alexandria, Algiers, Amman, Amsterdam, Anchorage, Ankara, Annapolis, Antwerp, Arlington, Asheville, Aspen, Astana, Athens, Atlanta, Auckland, Augusta, Aurora, Austin, Baghdad, Baku, Baltimore, Bandung, Bangalore, Bangkok, Barcelona, Bari, Basel, Baton Rouge, Beijing, Beirut, Belfast, Belgrade, Bergen, Berlin, Bern, Bilbao, Birmingham, Bismarck, Bogotá, Boise, Bologna, Bordeaux, Boston, Boulder, Brasília, Bratislava, Brisbane, Bristol, Brno, Brussels, Bucharest, Budapest, Buenos Aires, Buffalo, Busan, Cairo, Calgary, Cali, Cambridge, Canberra, Cancún, Cape Town, Caracas, Cardiff, Cartagena, Casablanca, Catania, Charleston, Charlotte, Chattanooga, Chengdu, Chennai, Chicago, Chihuahua, Christchurch, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Cologne, Colombo, Columbia, Columbus, Copenhagen, Córdoba, Cork, Curitiba, Dakar, Dallas, Damascus, Dar es Salaam, Darwin, Dayton, Delhi, Denver, Des Moines, Detroit, Dhaka, Dijon, Doha, Donetsk, Dortmund, Dresden, Dubai, Dublin, Duluth, Dundee, Dunedin, Durban, Düsseldorf, Edinburgh, Edmonton, El Paso, Eugene, Fairbanks, Fargo, Florence, Fort Lauderdale, Fort Worth, Frankfurt, Fresno, Fukuoka, Galway, Gdańsk, Geneva, Genoa, Ghent, Glasgow, Gothenburg, Granada, Graz, Greensboro, Guadalajara, Guangzhou, Guatemala City, Guayaquil, Hagåtña, Haifa, Halifax, Hamburg, Hangzhou, Hanoi, Harare, Hartford, Havana, Helsinki, Hiroshima, Ho Chi Minh City, Hobart, Hong Kong, Honolulu, Houston, Hyderabad, Ibadan, Indianapolis, Innsbruck, Istanbul, Izmir, Jackson, Jacksonville, Jaipur, Jakarta, Jeddah, Jerusalem, Johannesburg, Juneau, Kampala, Kansas City, Karachi, Kathmandu, Kawasaki, Kazan, Kharkiv, Khartoum, Kiel, Kingston, Kinshasa, Knoxville, Kobe, Kolkata, Kraków, Kuala Lumpur, Kuwait City, Kyiv, Kyoto, La Paz, Lagos, Lahore, Lansing, Las Vegas, Lausanne, Leeds, Leipzig, Leon, Lille, Lima, Limerick, Lincoln, Lisbon, Liverpool, Ljubljana, London, Long Beach, Los Angeles is excluded, so: Louisville, Lubbock, Lucknow, Luxembourg, Lyon, Macau, Madison, Madrid, Malmö, Managua, Manaus, Manchester, Manila, Mannheim, Maputo, Maracaibo, Marrakesh, Marseille, Mecca, Medan, Medellín, Melbourne, Memphis, Mendoza, Mérida, Mexico City, Miami, Milan, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Minsk, Mobile, Mombasa, Monaco, Monterrey, Montevideo, Montgomery, Montpellier, Montreal, Moscow, Mumbai, Munich, Muscat, Nagoya, Nairobi, Nanjing, Nantes, Naples, Nashville, Nassau, Newark, Newcastle, Nice, Nicosia, Norfolk, Nottingham, Nouméa, Novosibirsk, Nuremberg, Oakland, Odesa, Oklahoma City, Omaha, Osaka, Oslo, Ottawa, Ouagadougou, Oxford, Palermo, Palma, Panama City, Paris, Perth, Philadelphia, Phnom Penh, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Plymouth, Portland, Porto, Porto Alegre, Portsmouth, Prague, Pretoria, Providence, Puebla, Pune, Pyongyang, Quebec City, Querétaro, Quito, Rabat, Raleigh, Recife, Reno, Reykjavík, Richmond, Riga, Rio de Janeiro, Riyadh, Rochester, Rome, Rosario, Rostov, Rotterdam, Sacramento, Saint Paul, Salt Lake City, Salvador, Salzburg, San Antonio, San Diego, San Francisco, San Jose, San Juan, San Salvador, Sana'a, Santiago, Santo Domingo, São Paulo, Sapporo, Sarajevo, Savannah, Seattle, Sendai, Seoul, Seville, Shanghai, Sheffield, Shenzhen, Singapore, Skopje, Sofia, Southampton, Spokane, Springfield, St. Louis, St. Petersburg, Stockholm, Strasbourg, Stuttgart, Surabaya, Suzhou, Sydney, Syracuse, Tacoma, Taipei, Tallinn, Tampa, Tampico, Tangier, Tashkent, Tbilisi, Tegucigalpa, Tehran, Tel Aviv, Thessaloniki, Tianjin, Tijuana, Tokyo, Toledo, Toronto, Toulouse, Trondheim, Tucson, Tulsa, Tunis, Turin, Ulaanbaatar, Utrecht, Vaduz, Valencia, Valparaíso, Vancouver, Venice, Veracruz, Verona, Vicenza, Vienna, Vilnius, Virginia Beach, Vladivostok, Volgograd, Warsaw, Washington, Wellington, Wichita, Winnipeg, Wollongong, Wrocław, Wuhan, Xi'an, Yangon, Yaoundé, Yekaterinburg, Yokohama, Zagreb, Zaragoza, Zurich, Adana, Aleppo, Almaty, Amritsar, Antalya, Arequipa, Asunción, Bacolod, Bandar Seri Begawan, Belém, Benin City, Bhopal, Bishkek, Bloemfontein, Bordj, Brampton, Bremen, Bridgetown, Cagliari, Campinas, Cebu, Changsha, Cochabamba, Coimbatore, Conakry, Da Nang, Dalian, Davao, Dushanbe, Faisalabad, Fortaleza, Freetown, Fuzhou, Gaborone, Goiânia, Hamilton, Harbin, Hermosillo, Hohhot, Indore, Iquitos, Isfahan, Jinan, Kanpur, Kaohsiung, Kigali, Kisangani, Kunming, Lhasa, Libreville, Lilongwe, Lomé, Luanda, Lusaka, Maceió, Mandalay, Maseru, Mbabane, Mexicali, Monrovia, Morelia, Multan, Nagpur, Nay Pyi Taw, Ningbo, Niamey, Padua, Palembang, Patna, Peshawar, Port Louis, Port Moresby, Praia, Qingdao, Rawalpindi, Salta, Semarang, Shenyang, Shijiazhuang, Surat, Tirana, Trujillo, Ufa, Vijayawada, Vientiane, Windhoek, Wuxi, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Zhuhai
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Free Picks Monday | porcelaintalk.club Launch | Daily Dingers May 18th x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
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The model I use btw: @TeeOffSports
Couldn't recommend it enough, have hit 7 pre-tourneys using his sheets in the last 2 seasons.
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Thoughts going into Sunday (I'm 10000% pulling for Smalley):
THE LEADERS AT -4 AND BETTER:
Alex Smalley (-6, solo leader) - He's still leading but the cracks are showing. His total Strokes Gained has declined every round: +5.26 to +3.61 to +2.00. His R3 ball-striking (drives + iron shots combined) was literally +0.00, and Strokes Gained Putting dropped to +1.25 from his earlier +3.34 and +2.49. He's fading. His 3-round putting is +7.08, which is +2.36 per round against a season average of +0.104. That's an insane outlier. Even the R3 "fade" in putting (+1.25) is still 12x his season rate. The 2-shot lead gives him a cushion, but this is a guy whose ball-striking gives him no edge (total of +2.74 across 3 rounds is fine but unspectacular) and whose putter has to stay hot to hold off guys hitting it way better. He's vulnerable tomorrow.
Ludvig Aberg (-4, T2) - The model's best player in this field, period. His 3-round ball-striking is +8.54 with putting at -1.13. He's hitting it elite and actively LOSING strokes on the greens, which means his -4 is entirely built on tee-to-green brilliance. R3 was another strong ball-striking round (+3.35) despite the putter going cold again (-1.74 Strokes Gained Putting). Combined rank 4.0. If his putter just gets to average tomorrow, he could shoot -5 or -6. He's the most dangerous closer in this field by a mile. Two back with the best profile - you have to love him.
Aaron Rai (-4, T2) - Interesting case. Combined rank 49.5 (the model had him at 86 pre-tourney), so by the numbers he shouldn't really be here. But his 3-round ball-striking is +5.75 with his iron play carrying the load (+5.61 total Strokes Gained Approach). His R3 was +2.51 ball-striking with almost no putting contribution (+0.12). The concern: his season putting is -0.176, meaning he's a bad putter, and his tourney putting at +0.97/round is way above his baseline. His R1 was the weakest of the three (+2.26 total) and was entirely putter-carried (+2.60 Strokes Gained Putting). Still, his R2 and R3 ball-striking has been legit. Higher variance than the guys above him.
Jon Rahm (-4, T2) - The most sustainable profile at -4 alongside Aberg. His 3-round ball-striking is +3.86 with putting at just +0.48 (essentially neutral). His scrambling has been incredible at +4.53 total Strokes Gained Around the Green, showing elite short game. His round trend is remarkably consistent: +3.26, +2.61, +3.00. No wild swings. He's grinding and his score is real. Combined rank 7.0. No putting dependency, no regression risk. He just needs to keep doing what he's doing and he'll be right there on Sunday.
Nick Taylor (-4, T2) - Peaked in R3 with a +5.00 total, but it came with +3.65 ball-striking, so at least R3 was ball-striking driven. The problem: his 3-round ball-striking is only +1.79 with +5.45 Strokes Gained Putting. His R1 and R2 were putter-carries (-0.67 ball-striking R1, -1.19 ball-striking R2). Season putting is +0.030, so he's gaining +1.82/round against essentially a zero baseline. His R3 approach explosion (+4.28 Strokes Gained Approach) might be the outlier round, not the norm. Classic case of one great ball-striking round propping up a putting mirage. Fade candidate tomorrow.
Matti Schmid (-4, T2) - Similar concerns to Taylor. His R3 was +4.15 Strokes Gained Putting, and 3-round total putting is +5.38 (+1.79/round vs season +0.150). His R3 ball-striking was only +1.07, meaning the putter carried that -5 round. Combined rank 45.0 and the model had him at 70 pre-tourney. He doesn't have the pedigree or the ball-striking profile to sustain this. Fade.
THE GUYS AT -3:
Rory McIlroy (-3) - Now here's a scary closer. Combined rank 2.0. His R1 was disastrous (-1.74 total Strokes Gained), but he's gone +5.61 then +4.00 in R2/R3, both with strong ball-striking (+2.70 and +2.51). His 3-round ball-striking is +4.37 and while his putting at +3.03 is elevated, his season average is +0.268, which is legitimately one of the best putters on tour. So his +1.01/round isn't as crazy an outlier as it looks for other guys. Three back but with elite talent and clear upward trajectory. Very dangerous.
McNealy (-3) - Fell back with a +1 in R3, and his R3 Strokes Gained breakdown is ugly: -1.23 ball-striking, -0.82 putting. He lost strokes everywhere. His 3-round profile is still strong (+3.73 ball-striking, +0.55 putting), so it's sustainable, but the R3 fade is concerning for momentum purposes. Could bounce back, but the R3 showed vulnerability.
Patrick Reed (-3) - Bounced back with a -3 R3 after an even-par R2. His 3-round ball-striking is +4.08 with putting at +1.36 (moderate). Iron play has been elite (+5.32 total Strokes Gained Approach) and scrambling excellent (+2.43 Strokes Gained Around the Green). Combined rank 8.0. His round pattern (+4.26, +0.61, +3.00) suggests he can have big days but also flat ones. The concern is his driving: he's -1.24 total Strokes Gained Off the Tee, meaning he's finding trouble off the tee but recovering brilliantly. That can work at this course, but it's volatile.
Xander Schauffele (-3) - Textbook putting mirage. 3-round ball-striking of +1.58 with putting at +5.62 (+1.87/round vs season -0.021). His iron play has been AWFUL: -2.50 total Strokes Gained Approach across 3 rounds. He's hitting bad approach shots and making everything on the greens. R3 was +2.88 putting with +0.37 ball-striking. This should absolutely crash tomorrow. Hard fade.
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Course is playing -3 today, shoutout to the "it's gonna play too easy" crew now pivoting to "the setup is bad" crew now pivoting to "it's gonna play too easy".
Nathan Hubbard@NathanCHubbard
Course is playing +3 today, shoutout to the "it's gonna play too easy" crew now pivoting to "the setup is bad" takes
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NOBODY HAS GUESSED HIM YET 👀
30 minutes in, so it's time for a hint:
➡️ He did this in the 2000's
Fanatics Sportsbook@FanaticsBook
I'm thinking of a player that has scored at least 25 Points in an NBA Game 7 ... Hitting the first SEVEN people to guess correctly in the DM's 👀💸
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