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Entropium
8.3K posts
@BamaExpat @mattparlmer @HDPbilly Tell me, where’s the visibility gap? The unit of note is now the global LEO constellation, of which starlink is only the first
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@type1ayy @mattparlmer @HDPbilly Satellites can spot ships, but any given satellite has a limited orbital window where it can look in a given area. In open water a ship at speed can be anywhere in a several hundred mile radius in a few hours, so even if you do spot it the data gets stale fast.
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Problème de sécurité opérationnelle
Raphael Grably@GrablyR
La localisation du porte-avions français Charles de Gaulle rendue possible grâce à l'imprudence d'un marin utilisant l'application de running Strava, rapporte Le Monde. En faisant son footing sur le pont, il révélait la présence du navire.
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“holy fuck we’re running out of helium”
>the humble alpha particle from uranium and thorium decay
Gabriel@gbrl_dick
in 12th grade english class we got an assignment to write an essay about the most pressing social challenges, and one of the smartest guys i’ve ever met wrote like 3000 words on dwindling helium supplies. every year he gets vindicated in new ways
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Why do so many wealthy people insist they're NOT wealthy?
This is a real quote from a woman whose household income is over $2 million/year. She doesn't consider herself wealthy!
Why do you think this tendency to deny being wealthy is so common?
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@gauravahuja the author is time-traveling
price is a weighted sum of all possibilities
not back-calculated from the future
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One of these two groups is mispriced
Private AI labs: OpenAI valued around $840B, Anthropic north of $600B on secondaries. Both at 30x+ ARR.
Public giants: Microsoft at ~$3T on 23x forward earnings. Amazon at ~$2.3T on 28x.
Microsoft likely owns ~25% of OpenAI. Amazon likely owns ~15% of Anthropic and ~5% of OpenAI
If private investors are pricing these labs for a $5T+ venture-style outcome then…
Microsoft’s implied stake in a $5T OpenAI is $1.25T embedded inside a $3T company. Amazon’s combined stakes embed roughly $1T inside a $2.3T company.
Publics too cheap on Al exposure? Or privates/secondaries in bubble territory? Which breaks first?
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@Duderichy there’s only one real inflation hedge in the world, sweat equity
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let's check in on the inflation hedges...
...oh
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Spot gold extends its selloff to -$400/oz on the day, now trading at $4,500/oz for the first time since February 2nd.
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@tobinjstone The man doesn’t want us to know that Montana and British Columbia exist
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no one wants to hear this, but the best way to address the dual problems of high ticket prices and overcrowding at ski resorts would just be to make it easier to open up new ski resorts across America
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@shakoistsLog I’m betting against them (in spirit) because they rugpulled frontier models back to API pricing.
I’ve tested composer 2, it’s no claude or codex
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not that it matters because the government has protected us from investing in AI startups.
but never bet against engineers this smart.
Cursor@cursor_ai
We were able to significantly improve the model quality and cost to serve. These quality improvements come from our first continued pretraining run, providing a far stronger base to scale our reinforcement learning.
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@bubbleboi People are clowning because it is a lie.
But its signaling a very real threat they’re ready to do an energy blockade on the spot cargoes Taiwan IS getting to force an agreement if the US gets distracted enough
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@KenKirtland17 @Orbital_Perigee Its just pointing out that robots will lead the way in colonization and that its cheaper and easier to spread their ‘consciousness’ around.
We’ll do it for humans too anyway because we think its valuable, there’s no contradiction
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I have to wonder, why would a person with this view of humans care if humans explore the cosmos, make settlements outside of earth or "expand the light of consciousness"? Its just slop. Wouldn't sending some GPU's with a local LLM be better?
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no no no wait wait wait
OpenAI Newsroom@OpenAINewsroom
We've reached an agreement to acquire Astral. After we close, OpenAI plans for @astral_sh to join our Codex team, with a continued focus on building great tools and advancing the shared mission of making developers more productive. openai.com/index/openai-t…
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@JeremiahDJohns Or, and hear me out here, its possible that the people who have been wrong for 15 years are actually still wrong
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The adage here that comes to mind is "the stock market is a voting machine in the short run and a weighing machine in the long run"
But the rise of meme stocks and retail enthusiasm for specific brands has extended the short run to much longer than most thought possible.
HatfieldCapital@HatfieldCapital
Truly not enough people talking about how $TSLA is still at $1.5T with an imploding business.
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Korea & Taiwan are next. I do expect the Taiwanese government to do whatever it takes to keep TSMC production online even if it means the whole country runs on candlelight for a few months.
Bloomberg@business
Egypt will begin curbing some electricity use, including by ordering shops and cafes to close earlier, as the North African energy importer grapples with soaring global fuel costs caused by the Iran war bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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@type1ayy @dwarkesh_sp @dylan522p Wrong, they aren’t easier to replicate, give a listen to the podcast, he addresses this point on other technologies other than Litho. X-Ray as an example.
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@arpitrage Whoosh. Bottom line, this proves the CCP rigged the game in favor of insiders in ways that destroy long-term equity value.
Uninvestable
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China has poor capital discipline — it issues a ton of equity, which dilutes investors, but supercharges investment
Robin Wigglesworth@RobinWigg
The divergence between the performance of China’s economy and its stock market has been a topic for decades. This may finally explain it. ft.com/content/b43184…
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@jtrader814 @mattparlmer Thats the million dollar question. They don’t if they can still ‘win’ control of the strait and export oil.
The chess move is for the US to take kharg island. At that point Iran’s option is escalate, face economic death and losing China’s backing, or settle. lose or lose less.
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@type1ayy @mattparlmer why do you think Iran would stop? What incentive do they have? My guess is they are going to see this through.
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US abandoning Hormuz and forcing the Israelis to stop by cutting off their supply of weapons means that we might have crude and gas flowing in 3 months and products back in 6 months, which is by far the best outcome on the table right now
Sam Stein@samstein
On the Strait of Hormuz we've gone from: 1. Don't need help 2. We need help 3. Why aren't folks helping? 4. Helps on the way 5. Not telling you who is helping 6. Helps not actually on the way but we don't need it anyway 7. We may just abandon it and leave it to everyone else
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Am 100% confident I could re-build this pool for less than the **$28,000,000** the City of Los Angeles has budgeted.
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AWS guiding to $600b in annual revenue but will need to spend a bajillion in capex to get there.
$NVDA gonna do it with no capex levered to the same thing at a lower multiple.
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