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tyreal
304 posts


@MarioNawfal what you are hearing from who exactly?
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@bitcoinduke @runn3rrr anyone can see scout signals on x, or participate by holding a min amount of fair and tagging fair_vc with a short thesis. currently in closed testing
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Week 11–17 may · $FAIR update
Scout game
s0 — wrapped
apr 13 → apr 30: 34 submissions · 24 evaluated · 9 flagged (4 TRADE + 5 SIGNAL) · 10 DB_SAVE · 5 REJECT
best wins: $AEON +1400% · $MIROSHARK +700% · $CYB3R +200% → hypothesis works on paper
s0.5 phase 1 — closed
X smoke test passed
4 GP-scouts migrated TG → X
intake + reply pipeline validated on X
s0.5 phase 2
launches next week
GPs
new GP tool ships next week
Rebranding
rolling out across socials and listing sites:
DexScreener · Defined · CoinGecko · Fomo · Basescan
Content Pipeline
28 posts seeded across may 11 → jun 15 (autonomous drafting via fair-content agent)
Metrics
automated metrics pipeline live → snapshot + review published end of every week
We are just getting started
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@chumbawamba22 bro just max short the AI bubble wen it dips, esp if it goes down 10% + load up on puts
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@PlutonicXBT karmic debt is too large for this chain to ever come back imo
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-54% later, Sol/Eth is no longer haram imo

Snorlax@PlutonicXBT
So crazy that the generational top is in for Sol/Eth
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt funny thing is w min risk management he probably outperforms majority of twitter like this
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current market thoughts:
some alts straight up look macro bottomed, but that doesnt mean a bull market has to start today, they can take forever to build up enough steam for that, mini rallies like 2022 most likely.
alts with narratives = tradable
alts without = require crime, not worth your energy
btc in 60ks is a steal, i believe in new ATHs so imo free sized spot 2x. take it with a grain of salt if you must- im a delusional btc believer.
imo current btc rally most likely nearing the end soon as we trade into HTF downtrend structures. +28% in about 30 days. I was a bull from 60s and fighting off war fud, equities weakness etc but now imo the EV for bulls has diminished dramatically
"if ES pulls back, then BTC dies" is low EV HTF signal, we more often then not front run equities weakness on HTF then stall out as they find a bottom. ES isn't a good leading signal in my experience.
thoughts, not predictions.
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$GOOGL may have just changed the AI debate.
@Trader_mcaruso & @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt break down why the “AI bubble” argument is getting weaker, why the tape keeps rejecting bad news, and where the next layer of AI leaders may be.
Full episode out now: youtu.be/JLwT5gQt--Q

YouTube
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@fejau_inc "this is exactly like the .com bubble" -> likely a millenial who was 7 years old and playing pokemon red/blue during .com
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Unlike the dot com bubble there’s actually revenues
This will upset many people
Tannor Manson@Futurenvesting
Anthropic is now showing off $44 BILLION in annual recurring revenue. This is up $14 billion (+46.6%) since last month! BULLISH for AI Infrastructure $NVDA $AMD
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people have been mostly watching from sidelines, too much uncertainty/bearishness around AI & the future; even bulls on the timeline mostly play short term positions around leverege/calls imo
oil spike/inflation fears have only added to this fear & uncertainty, Iran was expected to finally provide another 30% + buy the-dip on equities but left majority sidelined once again
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crypto is the ultimate way to bootstrap liquidity, issue has been legitimate devs/retail dont want to touch it as its reputation has been turned to shit with 2 cycles of scams + recent US admin/solana grift
now we will have a newer gen of AI vibecoders coming & they wont be as emotionally attached to this space w its historical baggage
the best way to get liquidity in AI era for independent teams will likely be onchain, plus AI tokens/compute/agents/blockchain have lots of overlaps to expand
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I keep seeing people say man everyone is apathetic we gonna run the bull back so hard time to lock in. Are none of you concerned eth / sol barely eclipsed prev cycle aths, btc clearly demonstrating diminishing returns cycle over cycle with saylor holding inordinate amount, quantum threat, only interesting narratives exist in tradfi etc etc
Could go on, same reasons i spoke about when derisking last year. Serious question, does none of this concern you when you’re blindly parroting that the next cycle is gonna make ppl “so fkn rich”. Sure there’s always asymmetric opps that come up to make money on but holding spot majors hasnt felt worthwhile for a long ass time.
Curious on thoughts from people still bullish the space going forward
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We are probably 1-2 years out from a privacy coin supercycle imo. Most crypto and Bitcoin will more likely fall into the medium of exchange use-case while privacy coins take the non-sovereign SOV mantle
Snorlax@PlutonicXBT
Stablecoins can be frozen at any time even for OGs like Justin Sun, Eth or adjacent chains can be frozen/manipulated through centralized decision-makers, & Bitcoin is just a Saylor debt orgy The slow & quiet (likely intentional) destruction of non-sovereign money
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@chumbawamba22 imagine looking at those 2 weekly candles on equities and shorting, yikes
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt no obviously they have much deeper knowledge than the plebs at the FED
subscribe to my substack to find out wats really happening
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