Care Bear

NOOOOOO

@a1gardener @ben_j_todd wtf

@uberfinitist @ben_j_todd Found you

Not sure it's ideal the world's smartest kids most often become academics or work at Google.

@MikeyNohMore For all serious countries, almost anything their citizens do at scale is policy. I don't think policymaking and policytaking 1st worlders really forget this. This is why for eg heads of state will make trade deals with other countries on behalf of a handful of domestic corps.

1st Worlders tend to forget that migration isn't just the byproduct of ambition, brain drain, job/gibs seeking, or war refugees. It can also be a deliberate policy countries use to get rid of undesirables while also creating ethnic enclaves for soft power and remittances.

@JohnDoeTheDoe99 @realvrios_ Yes the individual villages thing is wrong (I said it was an exaggeration). But it is true for neighboring villages.

@uberfinitist @realvrios_ That’s waaaay too verbose and a completely different claim than the one you made. Remember Africa is fucking huge and much of North Africa is basically white. You said individual villages.

The internal European racism is too boring bro, I'll migrate to African interracism

@JohnDoeTheDoe99 @realvrios_ According to Claude:

@uberfinitist @realvrios_ This isn’t true. However yes Somalians are very genetically different and the worse of all of Africa.

@herratic4000 All of them? Even the Sri Lankans?

i know all the indians

@indianwaffen You are retarded.

This is how AASIfication happens. A beautiful Tamil Brahmin like her will go and marry a very high AASI ape like Vijay

@afinkek @systematicls You don't see why someone's utility may be convex at low resolution? There are things you can buy with a lot of money (retirement, security, political power, special treatment) that you can't buy with little money, and people may put a lot of stock in these things.

@systematicls I don't buy it. Even with linear utility you'd have to be extremely (read: not rational) lucky, like top 0.001% quantile or something, before you expect to gain. Unless you factor in the joy of thrill into your utility. Ie our gambling addiction as the rational reason to punt.

People who are highly numerate tend to be shocked that I frequently punt on negative EV, low probability games (e.g. lottery). There is a logical reason why. In games of negative EV, you "lose money" by playing an infinite amount of times, because your expected edge is negative. In systems that are ergodic - that is, you CAN reach the "infinite amount of times", then you SHOULD avoid games of negative EV. A good example my audience would understand is trading. In trading, you can trade hundreds of thousands of times in a single day. If every trade is negative EV, you are going to go bankrupt very soon. It does not take very long to reach "the long run". On the other hand, human lives are not ergodic. If I bought a lottery a million times, I would indeed lose money on average. If the multiverse existed, then yes, a million sysls would buy the same lottery, and as a whole, we would lose money. But this me, in this world, will never buy enough lotteries to reach the "long run". On the other hand, the amount to punt is insignificant whilst the amount on the infinitesimally small chance of winning is actually meaningful. I COULD bet a thousand times in this lifetime, lose it all, and not have it affect my utility in any material sense. On the other hand, I just need to win once to have a significant shift in my utility. You can extrapolate this to most games of extreme fat tails - like start-ups, for example.

@realniggano @anarch97 lol

@uberfinitist @anarch97 "The Marginal Shift"

The ‘great sort’ is total twitter bullshit by the way

This broad looking clocky af

Looking spooky sir!

@systematicls Put concisely, your utility function is convex when zoomed out.

@anarch97 They are all but guaranteed decent success within their own countries, by the measure of their own countries. The "great sort" only holds in the context of open economic zones.

and the 'great sort' DEFINITELY isn't true outside the first world. A 130 IQ middle-class Nigerian is not guaranteed great success, A 140 IQ Algerian is not boarding a flight to sf

@anarch97 Change that to 0.5SD+ HHI

@anarch97 A weak version is true. If you are in fact conscientious (1SD+) and intelligent (1SD+) and moderately healthy (-1SD+) in the West, you will (say 80% odds) be at least solidly middle class (1SD+ household income) by your 40s.

@WestsideLAGuy Much, much noisier

Being a successful portfolio manager at Citadel is the same level of flex as being a late 1st round NFL draft pick. Absolutely unreal signal of elite human capital, wealth, success, work ethic.

@PresentWitness_ @JSlither92565 MBS has been urging Trump to destroy Iran.

@JSlither92565 Not with having their infrastructure obliterated and the American bases destroyed as Israel takes more territory and advances further in the region.

My take on Tucker Carlson: He is (likely) working with pro-Gulf elements within the CIA and global elite circles but this is actually a good thing for America since our interests more closely align with Gulf nations than with [redacted].