Panican Party HQ™

Just want to be on the record with my House, Senate and Presidential Predictions this cycle- tough year for predictions, but we'll see how well these end up aging:

@decunningham2 Reasonable outer limit, like if this is where it is I don't think that's an embarassment

This is looking like a 3-5 point win, Coming off a 15-point gov win and a 6-point presidential win - and in a D+3 environment - this is honestly outright embarrassing. It's a win, but this is basically stretching what voters there are willing to tolerate.

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens And OR is just not a gerrymander, I think like 3 of those seats are competitive, with 2 D seats and an R seat. Pretty reasonable!

@uhhhlections @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens How about all the others?

Almost every county in Virginia moved hard to the Right compared to 2025 and even 2024. Most of Rural Virginia appears poised to perform Trump's margins by enough to shift the entire state to NO....if NOVA followed suit as well. But NOVA did not follow suit. Most Northern Virginia counties moved to the LEFT of 2024. And that's the ball game. Virginia is under hostile occupation. We are ruled out of Fairfax County, and there's nothing we can do about it.

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens NJ is a longer-running thing but I grant you that the current iteration tilts in democrats' favor though really in a fairly drawn map of NJ today I don't see the GOP hitting 5 seats

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens MD is a gerrymander ever since they shivved Roscoe Bartlett in the 2012 map, although they notably didn't get rid of andy harris' seat this time around when they could have. You could maybe force a third R-tilting seat, but i think 2 is the upper GOP limit here

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens CA: Just got gerrymandered as a response to the TX gerrymander, IL i grant you is a blatant gerrymander and has been for a while now, NY has certainly leaned into the gerrymandering more recently, though not as much as they have the capacity to.

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens HI, VT and DE are impossible to make republican leaning seats in, the latter two for the reason i mentioned earlier

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens RI: A Very d-leaning state where republicans punch above their weight in 1 of their 2 seats. Fung's 2022 RI-02 was a massive overperformance and shows what a local brand GOP can achieve in the state, as he came within 3 points of winning in a competitive environment!

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens NH: One of the dumbest ones you listed. The NH GOP tried to pass a map that would have been 1 R leaning district and 1 dem leaning district, but the governor at the time (Sununu) threw his support behind the current map, which has both seats as competitive, albeit d-trending

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens ME: Ridiculous- 1 Democratic leaning seat and 1 Republican leaning seat that happens to have elected a conservative dem bc dems know ball.

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens CT: One of the more reasonable ones on this list, but still deceptive. Ct-05 was within a point in 2022.

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens MA: It is impossible to draw a compact republican district- the best you can do is a republican tilting gerrymandered seat that includes Worcester, Norfolk, and Bristol counties (if i remember correctly)

@SugarPie_VA @SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens Lmao what kind of a moronic post is this, Vermont and Delaware each only have 1 seat

@SGeary4 @ChristianHeiens How about these States?

@uncledoomer I mean Tony was strong

you know this is actually a good question

@sansacinema Beric

who in asoiaf would be a massive stoner

@Green_Paraclete @literally_chad This is just arrogance masquerading as selflessness

@literally_chad She genuinely loves him and desires his mind. If it were a friend, it would be hell; but if my girlfriend were like this, I'd cry at the level of responsibility she's given me. I’d make sure to only have really good thoughts all the time for her sake. Everything would be for her.

Everyone saying "need" has never experienced this, it's actually hell

@lorahmoe Probably just going through a taxing episode with a man in her life, usually the same thing when a man says so about a woman. People usually find a way of letting you know unprompted if they mean more than that

If you’re a man, please respond. If you’re a woman, ask the men in your life and report back: What is your initial gut reaction when you hear a woman say, “I hate men”?

@TheEcho13 I mean I guess, I think that probably applies to most people in general and has just gotten more prevalent as we continue shifting towards service-sector work in developed economies

A lot of men can’t run a household for the same reason they can’t run their own business. They need instructions. They want a list. They want someone else to hold the system while they ‘help’. That makes them perfect employees. They’re more eager to submit to superiors, they thrive in structure, they follow direction, they work hard inside rules someone else created. But when they’re the one who has to notice what needs doing, plan it, remember it, and follow through without being asked, they stall. They’re more likely to tolerate mediocrity than women will. A lot of men think this makes them smarter, but really they’re just easier to manage because they’re trainable. They make great workers. They struggle with being the operator.

@nonregemesse eddy 4

Which historical figure is most likely Robert Baratheon? Great warrior who ended up being a bored and neglectful king.

@rheadelght @sirvaldenn @Mel4Chrgrs what does posting these empty statements with this snarky tone do for you

@sirvaldenn @Mel4Chrgrs yeah actually people are allowed to enjoy things without hearing from randoms on the internet how bad it is. hope it helps.

The first thing I ever learned about Sarah J Maas was how she thought this was a real title and not something created by GRRM

@NoLongerBennett hmmm.... maybe like Washington state? good question, i'm not sure

7th must be the mean guess. Nobody in Britain knows enough about the US to guess "seventh" with a straight face. Americans, without looking, what state has the 7th highest income?