ultimate.bg

@WhenSailing Yes.

@ultimate_bg Same ticker?

First resistance tapped, flip or VAL backtest.

@cryptoquant_com @grok What are the deviations of this realized price bands?

$55K marks Bitcoin’s realized price, historically tied to bear market bottoms. Past cycles saw BTC trade 24–30% below this level before stabilizing. Today, price is still 18% above. When BTC reaches this area, it usually moves sideways before recovering.

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@FiboSwanny What pump?

Never trust a weekend pump, until price goes down. Then belief evaporates faster than liquidity. LOL

@astronomer_zero According to my stats there is 73.33% probability that we started heavy down period and even a bear market. I think that if there is a bounce the max level we can reach now is between 102K and 106K. I hope that I'm not right this time, and your calls for 112-118K come true.

$BTC - There is a 91% chance the weekly bottom is in (plus or minus a sweep). In other words, 91% chance there will be no weekly closes below the current low. Fear is everywhere. People talking about waiting out the price action, telling you the bull run is over, telling you to be on the sidelines. This post is not saying new ATH's are guaranteed to come. For that, I will provide other analysis. We first need to call the bottom before even thinking about new ATH's. Yes, I do promise new ATH's. But this post is not about that. This post is about not selling, about not falling for the sentiment that the "bull run is over" and about instead getting excited about these prices. Because, the fear is all just a narrative. One that didn't arise at 125k, one that didn't even arise when we were at 110k and kept dropping. None of that was called for, and here it is, the sentiment in full swing, suddenly, and at the worst time. So this post isn't only to silence the "it's over" or "be careful" or "wait for the trend" posts (whether subtly or loudly), but also to, if the bear market indeed started, to prevent you from selling now (nfa) at the worst time. Because once we do get the move I keep on calling and calling and calling, the narrative will change again. "The bull run is back", "The trend has shifted", and all other quotes that promote you to buy high, sell higher, or more frequently : panic sell lower. Indeed, this post is telling you to NOT wait for the trend change. Because that will just sucker you in on the next local high. Selling now, is going with the sentiment, and waiting for the trend to change is also going with the sentiment. So no matter where you entered or are yet to enter, I have good news, because one of my core chart elements tells me there will be no weekly closes anymore below the current low, before seeing 112k and + (118k) with a 91% chance. So forget about waiting for the "trend", or being careful, or fearing your hold in essence from reading the in-between-the-lines of almost every post out there. I have an analysis telling you the exact opposite, to help you get in before the trend. (Buy before the trend, sell into the trend). The analysis It's one of my favorite types of analyses, the one of capitulation volume. "True capitulation" is where high volume sells, and gets absorbed by even higher volume. The extraction of large funds and companies (the whale degens i.e. the victims) by liquidity generating whales (the winners) So how do we find capitulation volume? It's again the rule of three, which is everywhere in trading markets. For those reasons, this rule is also often abused and overused. Trading isn't as simple as "just use the rule of three". So I like to do my own approach called "the layered rule of three", layered underneath an effective trait of markets. Here, the layer is the volume of weekly (=bull-bear cycle core timeframe) candles. So the essence here of the layered rule of three is simple: if three candles in a row go red with respectable volume peaking above all else, that's capitulation and a bottom. The complexity of this analysis goes beyond it, and it's a bit more nuanced (two small candles could add to large ones, and small green volume candles or retests do not reset the three-in-a-row red streak) But other than that, in simple terms: that's it. I always encourage you to back test and crosscheck for yourself what the action looked like in history. Never believe anything randomly without getting the feel and nature of it yourself first. So for your own reference, I'm giving you the weekly candles where it happened before according to my calibration (with local order flow verification, just as confirmation, not relevant here): 31 March 2025 2 Sep 2024 17 Jan 2022 21 Jun 2021 9 March 2020 18 Nov 2019 26 March 2018 17 Aug 2015 11 Aug 2014 2 more dates prior, not given They all give the pre-historic capitulation volume (on aggregated spot volume BTC:INDEX charts). And from the closes of these candles, price moved either ➡️At least 35% before continuing the bear market (would lead us to 118k) (2 out of 11 times) when ignoring the covid crash which was just a short term shakeout) ➡️Or new ATH's, continuing the bull run (8 out of 11 times) ➡️Or kept going down (1 out of 11 times) So that also answers from one statistical angle that the bull run is not over with a probability of 75%. Add that on top of the 112k is 99% certainly coming, as you know I am very confident in that level. And 118k (the 35% move), has a 91% chance of coming, as per analysis here (10/11 = 91%). Summary So that's it. A very strong and daring call to tell you the bottom is close, no new weekly closes below the current weekly low (a small wick below is possible, who cares), before 112k with a 99% chance, 118k with a 91% chance (this analysis), and the bull run continuing with a chance of 75% chance (new ath's). That is just 1 statistic. There is way, way more to it. I spend 12 hours a day (re)fin(d)ing these. Here is just another big one to give you a strong idea, continuing the theses, despite my mistake of closing the last long. Analysis still holds, execution mistakes are always possible, the sized and fresh large capital from selling other type of assets is reopened on spot instead and is the current one being run in the journey of trades. Hope this clears up the timeline of all the "trend shift waiters" or bear market believers. Enjoy.

@CCPool_Daniel Proof or did not happen.

Consistency: Bought Nvidia $3. Bought Apple $20. I was on Bitmex exchange public leaderboard top 10 for over a year, with thousands of Bitcoin profit. Bought SHIB at $1k market cap. Called major highs starting Bear markets, lows starting Bull And I’m still going for more!📈

@FiboSwanny BlackRock will make a hostile takeover of BTC and will eventually ruin it.

You don’t co-opt Bitcoin. Bitcoin co-opts you. It’s not a brand, it’s a game-theoretic apex predator. BlackRock isn’t steering it; they’re yielding to it. Every institution that touches Bitcoin is forced to play by its rules: fixed supply, open ledger, no bailouts. That’s not capture, that’s submission. Bitcoin weaponizes greed to hollow out the system from within.

@KrownCryptoCave Not very reliable. Can you back test it in SKX?

not sure how this one will play out but here we go again

@_TraderR On ATAS there was no nPOC there, nor one at 99500. Can you share the tick sizes?

#Bitcoin Clean as you can get Beautiful tap Last of the Npocs next one will be $99500 along side the Scam Wick $98876

Ah yes, the solution to every problem, more surveillance! Because who doesn’t want their entire existence verified, quantified, and bureaucratized? Just slap a barcode on my forehead and call it freedom!

@TradePro16 @inQcel_fired I follow you, but I don't think you should promote some indicator foud on TV. Someone could still buy here expecting 2-3x like this indicator suggests for the top.

It's fine you don't need to use it for anything, but I think for the average person it can simplify the cycle so they dollar cost average somewhat near bottoms and sell somewhat near the top. If you followed me you would know I have multiple things I use for gauging the overall cycle and my trading system has nothing to do with this indicator so it's fine.

Bitcoin has pulled this off before in less time. It's not over until it's actually over. A little over 2 months left until we know if this time is different.

@inQcel_fired @TradePro16 Not really.

@ultimate_bg @TradePro16 This is the first version of it from 27.5.2024. Looks alright

@TradePro16 The indicator is always updated to fit the new price action to his model. I have old versions of it and they look very different than the new ones. I would not trade off it.

@ultimate_bg I would never say anything with certainty until it's actually happened. That's definitely possible!

@_TraderR I like the ones below :)

Bitcoin Yearly Pivots getting closer and closer be sure to have them marked

@LarrytheTyrant Why are you looking for an expansion to the upside? Expansion can also come to the downside as well.

#Bitcoin / #BTC Price Delivery Functions (page 1/3) We are in a clear consolidation price range (visually evident). From a Price Delivery Function perspective, the only way we can travel from a consolidation function to a new function is either through: -Expansion -Reversal (manipulation in an AMD) Route 1: Consolidation to Expansion Therefore, applying this we can expect price to take two potential routes moving forward.

@LarrytheTyrant x.com/LarrytheTyrant…

#Ethereum / #ETH I think it may be time for an #Elliottwave update on Ethereum after the recent drop. Or should we look at another altcoin? #Altseason2025

#Bitcoin Who's ready for another #Elliottwave update? Micro Time Frame? Lower Time Frame? Medium Time Frame? Comment below, hit the like button 50 times, and it's done 🫡 twitter.com/LarrytheTyrant…