uncertain_duck

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uncertain_duck

@uncertain_duck

Omacatl Macula, Titan Katılım Mayıs 2012
56 Takip Edilen10 Takipçiler
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇺🇸 Congress just passed a bill that could force you to upload your ID or scan your face to use the internet. It is called the KIDS Act, and almost nobody wants to vote against protecting children online. That is exactly the problem. Last week the House passed it 267 to 117. It bundles 14 digital safety bills together, anchored by a revised version of the Kids Online Safety Act. The bill says it does not require age verification. It even includes a disclaimer saying so. The catch is one clause away. Platforms get held liable if they "knew or should have known" a user was a minor. That is a low bar. It means a regulator decides after the fact whether a company should have figured out someone was 15. No platform wants to gamble on that, so the safe move is to just verify everyone. Here is where "protect the kids" quietly flips. To prove you are not a minor, you have to prove you are an adult. Driver's licenses, passports, or a facial scan to log on. The net does not catch children. It catches all of us. Then there is the security problem. Force millions of people to upload IDs everywhere, and somebody ends up sitting on a giant pile of passport scans and face data. The Tea app showed how it goes. It required a selfie and a government ID, promised to delete them right after, and did not. In July 2025, about 13,000 of those IDs and selfies leaked onto 4chan, some still carrying GPS data that let someone map where users lived. The KIDS Act would mandate that exact collection across the whole internet. Kids do run into real harm online, and wanting to fix that is fair. But this fix builds a surveillance system that touches every adult. Rep. Thomas Massie called it a Trojan horse bill. It now heads to the Senate. The real question is simple. Is protecting kids online worth building an internet where everyone has to prove who they are just to log on? Source: EFF, ACLU, R Street Institute, NBC News, The Hill / Writer: Julie
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@PauloMacro He pretty much told the entire world that tank bottoms were 4-6 weeks away... sure, freeing all the floating barrels stuck in the gulf might add another 2 weeks of supply... but how empty tankers are going to be willing to go back in?
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Paulo Macro
Paulo Macro@PauloMacro·
While most traders were busy watching Warsh, the Common Knowledge moment that we all just witnessed in France today with Trump’s own words at G7 today will have more repercussions on US assets than anything that could have come out of Warsh’s mouth.
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@aeberman12 @TheMichaelEvery The world at large has not yet suffered enough from the Hormuz closure for Iran to be assured that Israel/America/[insert country here] will never attempt something Iike this again
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Michael Every
Michael Every@TheMichaelEvery·
What is the US going to do if they don’t? Shoot at them?
Michael Every tweet media
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@TheMichaelEvery There's no way Iran lets the US escort any non-aligned ship out of the Strait. Their goal is to inflict so much economic suffering on the world that no-one ever dares attack them again -- we' re not yet anywhere near the pain level required. Give it another 2-3 months.
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Michael Every
Michael Every@TheMichaelEvery·
(1) This could provoke an Iranian response, taking us to a new escalation. (2) It would carry *some* energy out of Hormuz, kicking the can down the road a little. (3) But is its main aim to free up ships to then carry energy on other routes, such as from the U.S.?
Michael Every tweet media
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uncertain_duck retweetledi
The Cytadel
The Cytadel@thecytadel·
Message from Grant Williams aka @ttmygh My account has been hacked. Naturally, it’s now being used to push scam crypto bullshit (what else?). Please disregard anything you see and any messages you get from me until normal service is resumed. How will you know? I sincerely hope that you do 🤣🙏 Please RT
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Chris Close
Chris Close@soclose2me·
Counter point -- If you have read, thought about, and looked at the historical implications of anything by the many luminaries that have shared their thoughts on what central bankers primary (unspoken) job #1 is.... It is not only extremely easy to understand the criticism, you will find yourself to be in violent agreement with it. Full stop
Chris Close tweet media
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Marko Kolanovic
Marko Kolanovic@markoinny·
Iran endured 6 weeks of bombing while tankers from the gulf were still arriving to their destinations and effect of Hormuz was muted. And they should capitulate now, 1 week before the last tankers arrives and real pain hits the Oil market?Doubt they are that dumb on timing.
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@Rory_Johnston A "horizon for the possibility of an agreement".... I'm sure Asia & Europe will happily delay thier consumption of food and energy to accommodate this process
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@LukeGromen @jmondyak greed & fear... inflation & war... wash/rinse/repeat The few that study history are doomed to watch the rest repeat it.... but what if the majority became the minority? Could the cycle break? Or is human nature truly unchangeable? Either way, I think you're doing good work here
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Luke Gromen
Luke Gromen@LukeGromen·
“All you have to do to get a nation to go to war is tell the people they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger.”
Luke Gromen tweet media
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@ttmygh I dunno, he blinks more than anyone I've ever seen.... or maybe it's morse code for "please help me".....
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Rory Johnston
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston·
my accountant (wife) just casually said “so we’re almost into Q2”
Rory Johnston tweet media
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@TheMichaelEvery If victory's the only option and the Strait will remain shut for at least another few weeks while victory's achieved, is a financial crash followed by QE & mega-stagflation simply something that Trump must endure in the short term? Because Markets(TM) will ensure it occurs soon.
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Michael Every
Michael Every@TheMichaelEvery·
Oil prices aside, from a strategic perspective this is what I was saying ahead of the weekend: “The only way out is through.” Of course, it’s not just the U.S. economy at risk: so who else steps in backstage to help? Watch for those signals. ⬇️ 🔥 ⬇️ 🔥 ⬇️ 🔥 ⬇️
Jim Bianco@biancoresearch

Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island. The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy. This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly. Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate). Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait. Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections. As I've argued in many other posts, Trump cannot simply declare victory and pull out (TACO). That would be worse. It would leave Iran in control of the world's economic jugular, allowing it to punish everyone by permanently holding oil at $200. So, they must force Iran to relent. Again, these are just the thoughts running through my head as I try to explain to myself why they took this step.

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Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt@EpsilonTheory·
Interesting list. 😆
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uncertain_duck
uncertain_duck@uncertain_duck·
@DonDurrett @asp_doug As much as I hate to say it, 6M oz/yr is wildly optimistic -- in Q3 they produced only 457,525 AuEq, and Bolanitos produced only 471,158 for Endeavour. (457,525 + 471,158) x 4 = 3.7M oz/yr. They've just replaced their COO though - new guy has a lot of work to do.
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Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com
They will benefit in a big way from higher silver prices. They are a high-cost producer, so silver prices at $90 are a godsend for them. If silver stays above $70, they should rip by year's end. 6M oz x ($70 - $40) = $180M FCF x 10 = $1.8B. Currently at $500M. The key is if they dilute us this year, which is likely. But at $70, we should at least 2x and potentially 3x to $1.5B. Then, we wait for 2027. 6M oz x ($150 - $45) = $630M FCF x 12 = $7.5B 😳
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