


uncertain_duck
27 posts















Very cool seeing the wave of empty tankers heading to the US to pick up some desperately needed crude for Hormuz-starved markets. All the tankers on the map below are empty VLCCs (~2 million barrel capacity each) currently heading for the US Gulf Coast.


Axios on a US official: Trump may delay the operation against Iran if he sees a horizon for the possibility of an agreement

TUNE IN: Tomorrow night at 9PM ET, President Trump will give an Address to the Nation to provide an important update on Iran.

Taiwan has about 11 days of liquefied natural gas reserves—a limited buffer that has become critical after Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off key supplies from Qatar. Because Taiwan relies heavily on LNG to power its grid and semiconductor industry, any prolonged disruption could force energy rationing and threaten chip production. Source: POLITICO




Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island. The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy. This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly. Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate). Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait. Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections. As I've argued in many other posts, Trump cannot simply declare victory and pull out (TACO). That would be worse. It would leave Iran in control of the world's economic jugular, allowing it to punish everyone by permanently holding oil at $200. So, they must force Iran to relent. Again, these are just the thoughts running through my head as I try to explain to myself why they took this step.


