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market participant

@undrvalue

Investor & analyst. Tech, consumer, value.

California Katılım Ocak 2026
486 Takip Edilen3.4K Takipçiler
TBU
TBU@TBU12345678·
have we considered that some of these AI losers like $WDAY are just like…losers (unrelated to AI)?
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Ed Sim
Ed Sim@edsim·
fantastic release! We now have The Law of Agent Cannibalism: Get super successful → raise at a huge valuation → now you must expand into everything. Lovable went from app builder to data science, marketing & decks. Everyone’s eating everyone else’s lunch. When shipping new features costs near zero, every company becomes every company. And when switching costs are also near zero - who wins? Next few months gonna be interesting.
Anton Osika – eu/acc@antonosika

Introducing Lovable for more general tasks. Lovable has always been for building apps. Today it also becomes your data scientist, your business analyst, your deck builder, and your marketing assistant. This is a big step toward what Lovable is becoming: a general-purpose co-founder that can do anything. See examples below.

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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
$GOOG just leapfrogging all the prosumer AI apps and giving them away…
Google AI@GoogleAI

We’re launching a brand new, full-stack vibe coding experience in @GoogleAIStudio, made possible by integrations with the @Antigravity coding agent and @Firebase backends. This unlocks: — Full-stack multiplayer experiences: Create complex, multiplayer apps with fully-featured UIs and backends directly within AI Studio — Connection to real-world services: Build applications that connect to live data sources, databases, or payment processors and the Antigravity agent will securely store your API credentials for you — A smarter agent that works even when you don't: By maintaining a deeper understanding of your project structure and chat history, the agent can execute multi-step code edits from simpler prompts. It also remembers where you left off and completes your tasks while you’re away, so you can seamlessly resume your builds from anywhere — Configuration of database connections and authentication flows: Add Firebase integration to provision Cloud Firestore for databases and Firebase authentication for secure sign-in This demo displays what can be built in the new vibe coding experience in AI Studio. Geoseeker is a full-stack application that manages real-time multiplayer states, compass-based logic, and an external API integration with @GoogleMaps 🕹️

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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
This is the first compelling bull case I've seen; everything else relies on more human web traffic seeing ads. Question is on the BATNA/game theory here - for $400M, will Google be willing to walk away? And will Reddit be willing to blow up the relationship and take $0 plus less preferential search treatment, or will they take what they are given?
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Jonah Lupton
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton·
$RDDT -- just finished reading a expert network transcript from one of the services we use. This expert thinks $RDDT will move to usage based pricing for the LLMs (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc) when they re-negotiate their current licensing deals which expire in the next 6-12 months. Right now $GOOG is paying $60M per year... this expert thinks $GOOG (ie Gemini) might end up paying $300-400M per year in a new licensing deal with usage/dynamic pricing. I know for a fact the sell side is not modeling any of these new LLM licensing deals into their forward estimates so this is a major catalyst if/when it happens. Right now $RDDT is making $130M per year from Gemini and ChatGPT, it's possible that number could be $600-800M in the next 12-24 months at approximately 100% profit margins. Currently the sell side is looking for $4.1B of revenues in CY2027 with 41.5% net income margins.. which is $1.7B of net income. Even without these new deals, I think $RDDT does $4.6B of revenues in CY2027 with 43% net income margins... which is $2.0B of net income. Now let's assume we get these bigger LLM licensing deals... it's possible that CY2027 revenues are $5.0B to $5.4B but net income margins would be more like 52-54%.. which implies $2.75B of net income. In this last scenario (if it plays out the way I suggest)... then it means you'd be buying $RDDT today at 9x CY2027 net income. NFA. DYOR. **I own $RDDT personally and we own $RDDT at @FirstWaveFund
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton

… and yet $RDDT trades at less than 20x NTM EPS which makes no sense… easily one of the most undervalued growth stocks in this market with multiple catalysts on the horizon… 1+ billion MAUs… the fastest growing ARPU… new licensing deals with the LLMs… expanding margins… only $10-12M of annual capex

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Matt Dratch
Matt Dratch@DratchCap·
The Meh 7 is the most under-owned it’s been in years just as everyone is leaning into index shorts, i.e. folks are ‘double short’ them. Perhaps then the generals lead when the war premium comes out. And of course we all know narrative follows price. 🤔
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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
Claude has gone down due to system overload at least twice today. There's not enough compute. $NVDA $AMZN $ZM
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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
@mrfboyer Never underestimate TAM of apparel + good performance marketing + decent product. Horrible to operate but can get massive
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Position Journal
Position Journal@PositionJournal·
I hold a company doing $1.5 billion in revenue with over $100 million in EBITDA, $81 million in free cash flow, a clean balance sheet, active insider buying, and a credible platform pivot. All trading at a $600 million market cap and 0.4x price to sales Any guesses? 💻⌨️
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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
@Divergent7651 Not in much depth yet, I previewed it here
market participant@undrvalue

Bonus Theme #10: Overlooked AI Winners I predict that Getty Images $GETY will pivot from AI casualty to AI winner. The initial reaction to generative AI was existential fear. Getty sued Stability AI. The stock collapsed. Everyone assumed image libraries were dead. But that's not the end of the story. The demand for clean, licensed, indemnified training data keeps growing. Companies want safe content. Getty now has its own generative AI tool built with NVIDIA - trained exclusively on licensed content, fully indemnified for commercial use. That's a real differentiator as enterprise buyers get more cautious about AI liability. They signed a multi-year licensing deal with Perplexity for image display in search. Partnerships with Bria and Picsart for model training. More deals are coming. The crown jewels: exclusive ownership of the Bettmann and Hulton archives. Irreplaceable cultural IP spanning a century of photography and which can't be recreated or scraped. It's a literal vault. For AI companies that want to train on premium, defensible historical images, there's nowhere else to go. All-time low hit in late December. Market cap around $545 million. Trades at roughly 6x EBITDA. The Shutterstock merger creates regulatory risk - but it's manageable either way. We're already at the lows, priced for total disruption.

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Divergent Capital
Divergent Capital@Divergent7651·
@undrvalue Have you written about the biz anywhere? Would love to hear your thoughts. Thanks in advance
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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
Getty earnings today. It’s a fun side bet for me.
market participant@undrvalue

Bonus Theme #10: Overlooked AI Winners I predict that Getty Images $GETY will pivot from AI casualty to AI winner. The initial reaction to generative AI was existential fear. Getty sued Stability AI. The stock collapsed. Everyone assumed image libraries were dead. But that's not the end of the story. The demand for clean, licensed, indemnified training data keeps growing. Companies want safe content. Getty now has its own generative AI tool built with NVIDIA - trained exclusively on licensed content, fully indemnified for commercial use. That's a real differentiator as enterprise buyers get more cautious about AI liability. They signed a multi-year licensing deal with Perplexity for image display in search. Partnerships with Bria and Picsart for model training. More deals are coming. The crown jewels: exclusive ownership of the Bettmann and Hulton archives. Irreplaceable cultural IP spanning a century of photography and which can't be recreated or scraped. It's a literal vault. For AI companies that want to train on premium, defensible historical images, there's nowhere else to go. All-time low hit in late December. Market cap around $545 million. Trades at roughly 6x EBITDA. The Shutterstock merger creates regulatory risk - but it's manageable either way. We're already at the lows, priced for total disruption.

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market participant
market participant@undrvalue·
@ClarkSquareCap The parallel subagents in Claude code + dat apis make for really powerful research, also useful for understanding/ steelmanning other viewpoints
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Clark Square Capital
Clark Square Capital@ClarkSquareCap·
What are some of the best ways you (or somebody you've seen) are using agents/LLMs in their investment process? [I want to make this a weekly/bi-weekly running thread]. Appreciate a RT for visibility + more responses. Thx!
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