Five Points Capital

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Five Points Capital

Five Points Capital

@fivepointscap

Value investor making concentrated bets. Nothing I tweet is a recommendation or financial advice.

New York, NY Katılım Ağustos 2025
900 Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
Here’s why I love e-commerce businesses as investments. $SE $MELI $AMZN When you become the dominant e-commerce player in a market, you develop a customer relationship with virtually every single person in that market. How many Americans do you know that have never used Amazon? This gives you a massive distribution network to enter new, higher margin verticals. Payments and broader fintech, advertising, streaming, gaming, food delivery, live entertainment, travel, etc. Every time a user checks out is an opportunity to cross sell them your other services. And when most of them have used your platform several times over many years, trust has already been built. E-commerce itself can be a tough business with low margins, high competition, and lots of reinvestment required. But it’s also an incredible advertisement, essentially a giant billboard across an entire region.
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
22,000 layoffs? That’s over 25% of the company, isn’t it? $META
Official Layoff@LayoffAI

META LAYOFF UPDATE - ACTUALLY 22,000, NOT REPORTED 8,000 We are getting a lot of incoming questions about the latest with META, who are expected to layoff 8,000 employees next week. Here's the thing: It's not just 8,000 cuts. It's 14,000 positions gone right now. 6,000 open roles have been quietly cancelled on top of the layoffs. Furthermore, Reuters reported 20% total workforce cuts for 2026. Only half have been announced. Zuckerberg won't rule out more. SO THAT IS 22,000 TOTAL 2026 CUTS. Meanwhile, since January 2025, Meta filed 4,851 H-1B visa applications. Every single one certified. Zero denials. They also restarted green card sponsorship with 415 PERM filings after freezing the program entirely in 2024. Record quarter. $56.3B revenue. $26.8B profit. Cutting Americans. Importing replacements. Training the AI that finishes the job.

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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
There is a 47% chance of a permanent US x Iran peace deal by July 31st, per Polymarket:
unusual_whales tweet media
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
@ok198483 Yeah I just know that supply shortages never last forever. The market increases supply so that it matches with demand. But maybe they’re cheap enough on 2027 earnings that they’re still a buy.
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Saad
Saad@ok198483·
@fivepointscap The long-term thesis is that agents will always create a demand floor for memory. At these prices really not worth the risk. My last adds were in the 300s where it was almost free money up since they will do roughly $300 in eps over the next 2 years
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
This is exactly right. And if your initial reaction is “but we’re going to need so much memory in the future”. Yes, of course, but we know how to make more of it. Your thesis on memory MUST have a reason why we’ll need more than we can make. The real question is, when does the memory shortage end? Is that mid 2027? mid 2028? If it’s 2030, the memory stocks will run a lot more. If it’s mid 2027, you’ve already seen the top in $MU $SNDK etc.
David Orr@orrdavid

Probably 12-18 months before the memory shortage ends, memory stocks are going to start collapsing. Nobody will know why at first. $SOXX will enter a nasty bear market. It'll probably be a good time to buy $SOXX after the likely commodity memory stocks get washed out.

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The Gold Standard
The Gold Standard@goldstandard555·
@fivepointscap $nu is the same thing in Brazil. $pypl and $fisv in the USA. This is an issue with any company engaged in fintech activities anywhere around the world, where the stock keeps getting blasted when AI stocks go up.
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
$SE is so cheap, it doesn’t even need Shopee to ever have good margins to be a buy. 1% EBITDA/GMV would more than drive strong investment results if bought here. Hell, Monee + Garena are probably worth the enterprise value of the company…
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
@Liquidn8w People don’t know that? Who? I would assume anyone in the name in any capacity would know the most basic facts about it
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Liquid8w
Liquid8w@Liquidn8w·
@fivepointscap People don’t realize SE is profitable in SE Asia (they weren’t in prior few Qs). Shouldn’t this be bullish?
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
Druckenmiller added 156k shares of Sea Limited $SE in Q1
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
It’s not about that really. You’re absolutely right that it could chop it could go down it could do anything. But the way you said that software could make a comeback with the implication that other companies won’t. And that AI is going to stay the market leader, just the assumptions are not how an experienced investor would see things. Didn’t mean to be a dick because I think your intuitions are good it’s just that anyone who’s been around a long time knows that the market has a tendency to do exactly the opposite of what you expect
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NearReality
NearReality@AlThingsF1nanc3·
@fivepointscap Interesting. Maybe I am still naive here. I guess you really couldn’t ask for better from the company and having Druck increase his position. Point taken
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unusual_whales
unusual_whales@unusual_whales·
BREAKING: Trump says again that American's financial situations are less important than the Iran war: "That's right, that's a perfect statement, I'd make it again."
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
@GabGrowth Never be overly concerned with what any investor does. They probably have different goals than you. Not everyone’s goal is the highest risk adjusted return possible.
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Gab
Gab@GabGrowth·
$MSFT I wouldn’t be concerned with this at all. Bill Gates is a terrible capital allocator. He owned 45% of $MSFT at IPO, while Ballmer owned 7-8%. Today, he owns less than 1% while Ballmer owns 4.5%, making Ballmer materially richer than him.
amit@amitisinvesting

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sold 100% of their Microsoft $MSFT position… The guy who created Microsoft just had his foundation dump the entire stake, 7.6M shares. Either he thinks Microsoft is over or he completely hates valuations in tech right now 😂

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NearReality
NearReality@AlThingsF1nanc3·
@fivepointscap ?? Just pointing out the current environment regardless of what the super investor did in the last 90days.
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NearReality
NearReality@AlThingsF1nanc3·
@fivepointscap Short to medium term unfortunately this is not software(possible comeback) or A.I. so likely a lot of chop but for long term holders after those earnings great opportunity but have to be realistic about the environment
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
$BRK.B $BRK.A I believe this is the worst underperformance in Berkshire’s history. It’s hard to do rolling one year for every single trading day with the tools I have, but March 1999 to March 2000 was about 42%. Pretty wild stuff
Barchart@Barchart

BREAKING 🚨: Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A is now underperforming the S&P 500 $SPY by a staggering 44 percentage points since Warren Buffett announced his retirement in May 2025 📉📉 It just keeps getting worse 🤯

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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
@lee_leeks Interesting… perhaps he just wants to consolidate his allocation to that theme behind $SE rather than seeing $MELI as a loser
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LeeLeeks
LeeLeeks@lee_leeks·
@fivepointscap Left 0.2% of his portfolio. Either he has not sold off completely that 13f has not shown yet or he keeping it as a wait and see. The next 13f is critical. Overall, its not favoured.
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Matt Watson
Matt Watson@MattWat16001736·
@fivepointscap He sees the same thing. Others will follow. How quickly is uncertain.
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LeeLeeks
LeeLeeks@lee_leeks·
@fivepointscap And sold off meli. Did he just conclude SE will run over meli in future?
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Five Points Capital
Five Points Capital@fivepointscap·
@vanazadian Yeah, maybe feels he doesn’t need a large amount of $V and $MA and wanted to add $ASML
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CapexAndChill
CapexAndChill@CapexAndChill·
Giga bullish. Cathie Wood has trimmed some of her $MELI
CapexAndChill tweet media
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Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan
Bill 'Latency Lord' Brennan@davey_juice·
Btw I have some conclusions on the ground in Brazil Will keep short for now $meli has lost some share to $se $nu has lost potential spend and share to $intr $se standing out for being cheap but more reliable than Chinese $intr Brazilians who travel like their benefits Don't know how much but banking is not meant to be monopolistic re $nu I think also $nu way ahead and is more entrenched in b2b and that's super underrated and they're creating more super app w many features that no other banks offer and I think it's relatively sticky
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Keşfet

@unusual_whales @ok198483 @goldstandard555 @Liquidn8w @GabGrowth @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13