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Oil shocks are exogenous, private credit is endogenous. The first can be resolved or ended “rapidly” in the same way it began but the second cannot.
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Valentin Teruggi
1.3K posts
Valentin Teruggi
@valentin_macro
Economist | MBA | Experto en Business Cycles Podcast Spotify https://t.co/UkbdHUf2gc Newsletter Economics Latam https://t.co/vAOJNa2TFR
Canada Katılım Nisan 2011
174 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Between 1995 and 1999, the US economy was adding an average of 300k jobs per month.
Now it is almost zero.
That's the metric.
Kip Herriage@KHerriage
During the dot com melt-up of 1995-2000, Nasdaq put up gains of 572%. To date, from the 10/13/22 bear market lows, Nasdaq is up just 162%. Listening to bears calling this a bubble top could cost you a lot of money.
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Valentin Teruggi retweetledi
Greater Vancouver home sales for the month of May hit a 25 year low outside of the May 2020 pandemic year. Year to date sales are also tracking lower than last year.
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In my latest valuation update, I explain why the Shiller CAPE remains my preferred metric and why today's market is approaching the valuation extremes of the 2000 dot-com bubble.
Full article below 👇 open.substack.com/pub/valentinte…
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Since BTC does not generate cash flows, they sell to pay dividends.
Ponzi scheme
zerohedge@zerohedge
*STRATEGY SOLD 32 BITCOIN FOR $2.5M DURING MAY 26 TO MAY 31
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Update S&P Valuaciones Junio 2026 open.spotify.com/episode/196qOG…
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Valentin Teruggi retweetledi
Petrobras (PBR) combina dos de los activos más cíclicos del mercado global: petróleo y mercados emergentes. Esa combinación puede generar retornos extraordinarios cuando el contexto acompaña, pero también vuelve a la acción especialmente vulnerable cuando el dólar se fortalece o el petróleo pierde impulso.
En nuestro nuevo análisis explicamos por qué somos cautelosos en el corto plazo, qué señales estamos observando en Brasil, el petróleo y el dólar, y bajo qué escenario Petrobras podría convertirse en una de las grandes oportunidades del próximo ciclo.
Leelo acá: open.substack.com/pub/economicsl…
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En este episodio analizo las distintas alternativas que tiene un inversor que cree que Estados Unidos puede entrar en un mercado bajista. open.spotify.com/episode/4LAKTG…
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We are going below $50 if this supply shock ends
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: US oil prices drop below $87/barrel for the first time since April 21st as President Trump says he is making a "final determination" on the Iran deal.
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And people chatted about rake hikes...
Inflation will crash really hard.
Increasing rates due to a supply shock =🤡
Market Mania 🏴☠️@MarketManiaCa
Canada Enters Recession In 2026! 🚨 The Reality? Living standards have been in decline for 4 years! Put them elbows up in the air and wave them around like you just don’t care! 📉🍁🤡
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En 1929, el mercado celebraba una revolución tecnológica, valuaciones extremas y la idea de que “esta vez era diferente”.
Hoy vemos inteligencia artificial, concentración histórica en pocas acciones, deuda récord, crédito privado opaco, consumidores presionados y una Fed que advierte sobre valuaciones elevadas mientras sigue flexibilizando.
La comparación no es perfecta. Pero los datos muestran algo incómodo: 2026 podría tener elementos de 1929, 1907 y 2008 al mismo tiempo.
Leelo completo en Substack: open.substack.com/pub/economicsl…
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@NGarciaLagrenee Empresas petroleras y mineras. Estoy escribiendo un post de PBR que seguro sale mañana. Saludos!
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@valentin_macro Muy de acuerdo. 👍🏼 gracias. Tienes recomendaciones de que vehículos serían los más apropiados invertir en LATAM en la próxima década?
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Latam: la gran apuesta de la próxima década. open.spotify.com/episode/39ox3p…
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¡Artículo Gratis!
Durante años hemos escuchado la misma frase: “Latinoamérica está barata.”
Pero LATAM lleva barata desde hace casi dos décadas. El problema nunca fue solamente la valuación. El problema fue el dólar.
La región tuvo una década ganada en los 2000, pero después de 2008 cambió el régimen. El dólar entró en un ciclo estructuralmente más fuerte y Latinoamérica quedó atrapada en una larga década perdida.
Ahora la pregunta es otra:
¿Y si estamos cerca del final del dólar fuerte?
Leelo completo en Substack: open.substack.com/pub/economicsl…
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@HenrikZeberg So.. tulips on a blockchain are still tulips?
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Correct! 👇
BTC is a "Digital Tulip"
And it will CRASH horrendously!
Now - enjoy the Bounce - and the chit-chat
Bitcoin Teddy@Bitcoin_Teddy
Michael Burry of The Big Short fame gives first interview in over 10 years and says, “Bitcoin is not worth anything. It’s the tulip bulb of our time.”
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@valentin_macro And the economic paradox becomes- who makes money at $30 $CL….. the answer is nobody.
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If we get an economic downturn, prices won't go sub-$70. They will go sub $30.
I just can't believe these static analyses that focus only on supply when the most important thing is DEMAND.
During a downturn, no one wants oil, regardless of what happens with the supply. Everyone ignores demand.
Ridiculous.
The Lincoln Project@ProjectLincoln
"If you want $3 gas, you're going to have to wait 6 years. We will not get back down to that sub-$70 oil level until 2032"
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Someone who knows their stuff!👇
Inflation from supply shocks does not change the structural inflation driven by demand.
These shocks force people to spend more on energy and to cut back on other goods and services. That shrinks the rest of the economy, except the energy-related industry.
Unless these shocks are accompanied by wage growth so people can absorb higher energy prices (such as in 2022), they are massively deflationary due to demand destruction.
This is economics 101; no one needs a Phd to understand this.
Lee Bollard@The_Jolly_Co
@valentin_macro Inflation is clearly energy driven. Now energy is coming down. Problem largely solved.
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Mmmmm…
Sentiment is building
Vivek Sen@Vivek4real_
BINANCE FOUNDER CZ: “CRYPTO WILL MAKE YOU NOT NEED A JOB.” “BUY AND HOLD NOW, RETIRE IN A FEW YEARS.”
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@valentin_macro if Oil comes at $30 markets will Rally to the sky
#SPX will hit 11k
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