@ffdataroma for sure, it is always risky to take a guy in the top 20 where the rationale is almost entirely based on our assumption of his job and not his actual skill
The situation do be good tho
English
The Early Down Grinder
4.9K posts
The Early Down Grinder
@valuedraftpicks
Self Loathing Jets fan. Best Ball Enthusiast..
Katılım Temmuz 2019
120 Takip Edilen925 Takipçiler
The primary issue I have with ranking Chase Brown so high is that the Bengals have shown they want to split valuable work between Brown and another RB, in a way that his raw fantasy points/PPG totals from last year do not represent.
In Week 7-18, when Samaje Perine was healthy, Brown accounted for less than 60% of the Bengals carries. Brown undeniably ran hot on TDs down the stretch of the season too, with 8 total TDs in the final 5 weeks despite splitting goal line carries evenly with Perine (5 a piece). He had 4 receiving TDs on 5 redzone targets in this time, an impressive but completely unsustainable mark.
The Bengals seem live to bring in a vet still, or just give Perine ~40% of the touches again. With the Bengals bolstering their defense too, we could see less trailing game scripts for Brown to eat up receiving work like he did last year (4th among RBs in targets from Wk7 on). And Brown is also below a 4.5% explosive rush rate in each of his last 2 seasons (outside top 20 RBs), so I'd be wary of a volume issue and/or TD regression being offset by big plays.
He was definitely a draft winner, but I can't get Brown and his inferior talent-level (compared to the other RBs in this range) inside my top 10 RBs.
Kyle@KyleM_FF
There isn’t, and I currently have him ranked as my RB6 in PPR Redraft Leagues He averaged 20.4 FPG in Weeks 7-18 last season (after Jake Browning was benched) And 22.3 FPG when Joe Burrow returned in Weeks 13-18
English
@MattHarmon_BYB btj is the Z and probably glued to it. meyers will lead the x role with alot of slot and washington probably mixes into all 3 roles. hunter will be the 4th wr in spread sets. btj good but will be limited in production by lack of positional versatility in this grouping of wr.
English
If we are just going off traditional positional designations, Brian Thomas Jr. as the X receiver has the lowest odds of being the one who comes off the field.
Jared Smola@SmolaDS
The Jaguars ranked 29th in % of pass plays with 2+ TEs on the field last year. That should climb -- perhaps significantly -- with the addition of Nate Boerkircher. And that means fewer routes for the WRs. Figuring out which WR(s) will be most impacted will be key.
English
@RyanJ_Heath lifes an island when you sit in an echochamber
English
Love that Matt and I are on the island in believing Tyson's landing spot was freaking awesome
(My reasons are way less smart and in-depth, but I had the same instant reaction to the Lance pick!)
Matt Harmon@MattHarmon_BYB
Here’s why I’m going to be higher on Jordyn Tyson in my post-draft rankings than I was pre-draft. From the system, QB fit and even a little clue from the second WR the Saints added.
English
@FFStalder teams make bad picks. i will stand behind my dislike of price until football is played. but the touch opportunity obviously cant be ignored. reminds meif ceh to kc. and colemans a bronco now so giddy up
English
The anti-Jadarian Price crowd is in shambles.
Imagine the mental gymnastics that will come out tomorrow when their favorite RB gets RD5 draft capital but a fun landing spot.
I hear your crickets 🦗 Jonah Coleman, Emmett Johnson, Mike Washington truthers.
English
@Quintorris_ i do think tyson offers a higher ceiling. hes probably a more “all around” wr. tho i do rele like lemon despite his more limited skillset. i like your 3.5 figure. much agreement from me.
English
@DevyEusuf I think he can have a chance if he follows the Jordan Love career arc but I agree. Any idea that he’s a probable day one stud isn’t really based off anything other than personal vibes
English
Anyone overly confident in Ty Simpson is lying to themselves. Doesn't even have an elite trait.
zwk@ZWKfootball
Good NFL QBs were usually good in college Either they were very productive over their first 3 seasons out of HS, or they had a huge season, or both
English
not commenting on Ian’s post, just a separate thought cause lots of screens talk among wr/te prospects. is it possible, neigh i say probable that college offenses are just throwing more screens, like how nfl teams throw more screens now, cause defenses play more zone now.
Ian Hartitz@Ihartitz
33.7% of Kenyon Sadiq's career targets at Oregon were screens. That's the highest career mark of any Round 1-3 tight end over the last five draft classes
English
@BrendenDeeg_ “ we as a society are under rating. The only guy that anyone with a platform talks about and claims is underrated.”
What’s even the parameter for being underrated?
English
We as a society are severely underrating KC Concepcion. Top 20 player in this draft.
English
The world said this about Jesus.
“Some said, “He’s demon possessed and out of his mind. Why listen to a man like that?”
John 10:20
God The Father said this to Jesus.
“Then a cloud overshadowed them, and a voice from the cloud said, “This is my dearly loved Son. Listen to him.”
Mark 9:7
Jesus reminds us as His Followers
“—If they have called the master of the house Beelzebub, how much more will they call those of his household!”
Matthew 10:25
The world calls us crazy, but God calls us Sons and Daughters.
English
@mrmikeMTL when they took cigarette lighters out of cars
English
@JakobSanderson alot of people would help themselves if they just focused on tprr, yprr, and personal vibes
English
Obviously everyone disagrees on exactly which “analytics” are most important for WRs
But it largely boils down to: how much did you produce? When did you produce? And against whom did you produce?
In KC’s case: enough, very early, and good comp!
YEYO🇲🇽@ItsYeyo95
I will DIE on the hill that KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston are not going to be good WRs and I would trade back from #36 if somebody wants one of them. People pretend analytics don’t matter when looking at prospects but at WR they do a lot.
English
English
Makai Lemon is much more than just a slot.
🍋 3.09 career yard per route run rate
(WR8 out of 32 WRs drafted Round 1 dating back to 2017 - pictured in this tweet)
🍋 3.34 YPRR if screens are removed
🍋 3.62 YPRR outside of the slot
🍋 WR6 in yards per target on throws of 10+ air yards
🍋 WR6 in avoided tackle rate on receptions
English
@NoFilm_Analysis that’s fair I think that’s reasonable just personally I don’t see anything to go crazy for with price but I know he’s very popular
Otherwise, I appreciate your input
English
I mean, it’s fair if you think he’s RB2. The model tends to do a good job at identifying the high end talents and bad prospects really well.
Beyond that, RB is the one position that relies the most on team fit and opportunities.
If Coleman comes out and is the 2nd most productive running back from the class I wouldn’t be surprised.
In fact, their respective grades can change dramatically. In the model, I gave Price 2nd round draft capital and Coleman 3rd round draft capital.
If Price is taken in the 3rd and Coleman in the 2nd, that alone would likely flip their grades. Their respective analytical profiles aren’t different enough that draft capital wouldn’t / shouldn’t impact their grades.
A lot of the times a running back will still grade better than another prospect despite draft capital because their analytical profiles are so much better.
Cam Skattebo last year a good example of this. Despite 4th round draft capital, he graded almost identically as Omarion Hampton with 1st round draft capital.
So I don’t pushback too much on Coleman being above Price. Ultimately, I think they’re close enough that draft capital will determine who th better prospect is
English
@NoFilm_Analysis — 2026 NFL Draft RB Big Board 1.0 (Top-30)
Includes:
- 30 RB Prospects
- Prospect Grade
- Production Score
- Elusiveness Score
- Efficiency Score
- Explosiveness Score
- Rushing Score
- Receiving Score
- Film Score
- Checklist Score
- Athletic Score
English
last guy who spoke like that had a rap track and a jetski accident by 28
Talia Baia@taliaontv
RB Jeremiyah Love said he won’t feel success until: - he’s on his third NFL contract - he’s got a gold jacket - and he’s made the Pro Bowl 5+ times A man with goals 👏🏼
English
ty simpson is a great draft-sit-develop option for teams with patience if you can get him after the top 20 picks. great option for a team like the ram. worth taking a developmental shot even if his profile suggests more likely a bust. i have faith but def not a day 1 starter
Scott Barrett@ScottBarrettDFB
Ty Simpson isn't real He has 15 career starts (and only the first half of them any good) and 500 career pass attempts So, you can have no idea who he even is Forget about putting him in Round 1, he's not even a real person. He's just the vapors and shadows of a prospect
English
@FFStalder its wild. should be top 5 already. 1.02 even
English