Valuefindr
1K posts





⚽️ Jorgen Strand Larsen Over 0.5 Shots on Target @ 2.02 versus Manchester City 🇳🇴 Opened @ 2.18 and have dropped a tiny bit already, the Norwegian striker had 27 shots on target in his last 25 games in the Premier League, covering the line in 19 out of 25 games and at home only missing versus Liverpool and Arsenal, a game where he only played 30 minutes due to injury as seen in the picture. 📊 The Value Scanner picks him up as a very good bet, graded as 30%+ value while our general models believe the correct odds is between 1.5-1.73 depending on how heavy you want to weight the home versus away factor. Likely a 15-20% value bet here and was a bet for us in a lot of the last rounds of the Premier League last season too. For more stats and bets: Propsdata . io 🤝


Our pick for these often goes to the ”easier” games: 🇪🇸🇵🇹 Under 0.5 Cards @ 8.0 with Bet365 or 🇵🇹 Portugal Under 1.5 Cards + Draw (cards) @ 9.15 meaning you play Under 0.5 Cards or Exactly 1-1 in cards which of course is a good bonus. But not everyone have access to Betsson bookies. There are loads of other good ones in our eyes starting with 🇳🇴🇨🇭 tonight @ 8.0 or @ 15.0+ with Betsson (🇨🇭Under 0.5 Cards + Draw (cards). For the later games we like all lines in 🇸🇪🇩🇰 only available on Kambi right now what we can see: 🟨 Under 3.5 Cards 1.63 🟨 Under 2.5 Cards 2.48 🟨 Under 1.5 Cards 4.60 Scandinavian ”derby” but last games have seen 0, 2, 1 cards so not something crazy to be expected and referee looks decent for low cards.






🏴 Manchester City 9 Points @ 3.0 Man City @ 1.083 v WAC Man City @ 1.071 v Al Ain 3.0 / (1.083*1.071) = 2.59 👉 Should Man City be @ 2.59 to beat Juventus? Naaaaah… Manchester City was @ 1.93 to beat Juventus away in the Champions League, at neutral ground this should be lower but will also be hard to know with motivation in the last round too with these kind of bets. A plus that it’s the hardest game as the third one since both teams will probably have 6 points and keep motivation high. If we count conservatively with Man City @ 2.0 to beat Juventus, and add some vig to the other odds we get 2.0*1.10*1.10 = 2.42 3.0 > 2.42 and a ~23% Value Bet ✅ Available pretty much everywhere! We have a couple of more to share maybe 👀


🇯🇵 Urawa Red Diamonds 0 Points @ 8.50 To lose all games: 🇦🇷 @ 1.55 v River Plate 🇮🇹 @ 1.22 v Inter Milan 🇲🇽 @ ~ 2.20 v Monterrey Fair odds around 4.50 indicating a ~88% value bet! 💣💣💣






📊West Ham a complete turnaround since Graham Potter took over, a defensive masterclass from him and West Ham who leaked shots for their opponents previously is now a solid team facing a Tottenham side with a good amount of rotations ahead of the return fixture versus Bodo/Glimt. The bookies seems to not have recent enough data for their West Ham odds and we continue to hit the unders when they are playing!



⚽️ Champions League Tuesday! 📊 Dortmund Over 5.5 Shots + Barcelona Under 7.5 Shots (1st Half) @ 2.15 📊 Over 36.5 Tackles + Over 22.5 Throw Ins @ 1.75 💥 Double @ 3.76 🎯 EXTRA: @ 4.50, @ 4.0, @ 18.0


⚽️ Rangers - Bilbao @ 1.86 ⚽️ Lyon - Man Utd @ 1.80 📊 Double @ 3.36 Extra: 3.10, 3.10, 9.61 💥




