The Value Philosopher

All my posts on Substack will remain free and fully accessible in 2026. No paywalls. Just a deep, philosophical approach to investing, focused on real value. @valuephilosopher" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@valuephilosop…

@EarningsMatter @PayPal Fintech appears to be hated...

So somehow $SHOP is down 16% but controls the future of ecommerce shops $PYPL is down 8% but controls the future of payments $FISV down 9% but controls credit card transactions How? I use @PayPal daily

@watchlend Even better than the average quality Netflix! Looks fantastic so far.

$Angx Angel studios is steadily improving its numbers! Awesome quarter. Looking forward to become the christian Netflix!

@ArgonHoses I agree!

Putting the whole Animal Farm controversy aside, $ANGX is a steal at $2.94 a share in my mind. *Note: My mind is retarded and I'm not a financial advisor, but I am going balls deep on this one.

@jakebrowatzke Jake, you should check out $PGY

@StockSavvyShay Simply not good enough. Priced for perfection.

$SPOT Q1 EARNINGS • Revenue $5.30B vs Est. $5.29B • EPS $4.03 vs Est. $3.45 • Total MAUs 761M vs Est. 759M • Ad-Supported MAUs: 483M (+14% YoY) Q2 Guidance • Revenue $5.61B vs Est. $5.58B • Total MAUs 778M vs Est. 774M • Subscriber Net Adds 6M vs. Est. 7M • Operating Income: $737M vs. Est. $788M

@TheLongHold__ It's just a little bounce!

$RLAY buying the dip?

The real risk with overvalued stocks are expectations priced for perfection. Today, Spotify didn’t report bad results at all, yet the market still punished it. Why? Because when expectations get stretched that far, good is no longer enough. That’s the dangerous part of momentum and multiple expansion. At some point you have to ask, how much growth and execution is already priced in? And what happens when reality simply comes in normal? I decided to step off that ride and sold all my $SPOT shares in November 2025, locking in ~391% return with an average sell price of $603.19. Could it go higher from here? Maybe. Will it ever revisit that price? Not so sure. But when expectations become the main driver, I’d rather walk away early than hold on hoping the market never asks for more than perfection. Read my two part article on Spotify here: thevaluephilosopher.substack.com/p/spotify-part…

@TheLongHold__ Yes! Moving to frontline was a logical step. Well deserved!! Let's see what happens.

$RLAY just dropped some incredible data. The biggest takeaway? Zero Grade 3 hyperglycemia, proving their computational platform actually works. This is great. 🙏🏻 The second biggest? Pfizer is stepping in to supply the combo drug for Phase 3. Did the buyout target on their back just get bigger.

@SirFoxFur Time will tell.

@valuephilos It’s going extinct 😅

Angel Studios: The Next Evolution of Film Distribution Why the future of cinema and streaming may be driven by communities demanding quality, meaning, and connection. $ANGX thevaluephilosopher.substack.com/p/angel-studio…

@SirFoxFur @pringle_wy33330 Inaccurate. It was a merger. You might first read the basics about a company before commenting on it.

@pringle_wy33330 @valuephilos I might as well throw money out the window

I think $ANGX is underrated. The fair price would be anything above $9 in my opinion. Now it's around $4.5.

Oh, and yeah @michaeljburry bought $PYPL today.

$16 for $RLAY today. So much well deserved! I bought a bit more a few weeks back and my position is now +113%. This is still, just a beginning!

@Driller562 I agree. I bought a little tiny more today.

@valuephilos criminal valuation... still

$RLAY crossing the $15 price today for the first time since April 2023. 🥹

Your creativity deserves to get paid. 🎨 PayPal Payment Links is now live in @Canva. Add a payment link or QR code to any design and start earning. Learn more: bit.ly/4tAn3CH

@aditharun_ Good summary. From future revenue perspective, if trials are successful also for 1L, Zovega could be used in first line triplet combo instead of Inavo...

$RLAY is an interesting case study because from the time they announced their initial 2L pi3k + serd PFS data in HER2-/HR+ breast cancer the stock went down ~60% over the next 5 months (coincident with bad macro environment) and then up ~530% over the next 12 months. As Jonathon points out, the stock steadily trended up from Apr 2025 to Mar 2026 to a current 2.2B market cap. How? Why? First, the PI3Ki HER2-/HR+ landscape has changed a but in the last few years. Invalosib (Roche), a selective PI3Kα inhibitor, recieved BTD in May 2024 and approval in October 2024 for triplet invalosib + fulvestrant + palbociclib in endocrine resistant HR+/HER- mutant PIK3CA breast cancer. Improved median OS by 7 months from 27 to 34 compared to fulvestrant + palbociclib (Jhaveri et al NEJM 2025). Capivasertib (AstraZeneca), a pan-AKT inhibitor, initially approved in late 2023 is indicated for PIK3CA/AKT1/PTEN-altered HR+/HER2- breast cancers following at least 1 endocrine based therapy. In the CAPITello291 trial in this setting oround 70% of patients had prior CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy. In AKT altered tumors, overall survival was 70% at 20 months in capi-fulvestrant treated patients compared to ~60% at 20 months in fulvestrant monotherapy patients. Positioning for zovegalisib $rlay is PIK3CA-mutant HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients with prior treatment of 1-2 endocrine therapy and 1 CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy. Open label trial. Excluded if prior PIK3/AKT/mTOR pathway drug has been given. This means invalosib treated patients are ineligible. Of course, invalosib triplet is an earlier line of therapy so that narrows the pool of patients considerably for zovegalisib if approved. Has a 4 month PFS improvement relative to capi-fulvestrant comparing across trials (VERY rough, but that's what we have till the ReDISCOVER2 trial reads out) Zovegalisib targets a different site on PI3Ka than inavolisib and is billed as a more mutant selective molecule. This comes with better tumor specificity and if so, less side effects. Relative to doublet, inavo triplet carries on an absolute basis, a 7% higher hyperglycemia grade 3 rate, 6% higher grade 3 stomatitis, 10% higher thrombocytopenia rate. Relative to fulvestrant, capi combination carries on an absolute basis, a 9% higher grade 3 diarrhea rate, 12% higher grade 3 rash, 2% grade 3 hyperglycemia rate. Absolute rates of grade 3 AEs at the phase 3 dose for zovegalisib is similar to inavo triplet and a bit better than capi-fulvestrant. $rlay zoveg may be a more efficacious and tolerable drug than capi BUT the patient population is going to be cut considerably given $rlay can only give their drug to patients NOT given inavo triplet. Summary of relevant corporate actions from Dec 2024 to Apr 2026: - Reprioritized pipeline and focused on PIK3CA program after seeing interim safety and efficacy data in Q4 2024 from open-label phase 1 study. - Jan through April of 2025, like most other small biotechs, stock got hit hard due to macro factors. - Outlicensed FGFR2 program to Elevar, delayed initiation of fabry and nras programs (originally slated for 2025 IND but still yet to file), cut research programs and costs. More disciplined cash usage. Discipline, pare down. - Board member stepped down and new board member appointed in June 2025. New board member experienced in oncology drug development. - Aug 2025 start phase 3 trial. Primary completion expected in 2028. - Brought in two other board members in Nov 2025 who were experienced in commercializing / developing biotech drugs. - Get breakthrough designation from FDA in Feb 2026. - Report data in Mar 2026 from open label phase 1b study at the phase 3 dose and compare efficacy/safety head to head against previous dose strategy (Dec 2024). - Apr 2026 announced that they will present data on vascular abnormalities in May.

13/ Also worth noting: Google Ventures has a stake in! Full deep dive here: thevaluephilosopher.substack.com/p/relay-therap… If you’re interested in biotech, M&A, and asymmetric setups, this one is worth your time. Not financial advice. Do your own work.

12/ Put it together: • strong data • clean safety • expanding TAM • validated M&A comps • solid balance sheet → valuation rising → acquisition gets harder

7/ Then M&A enters the picture: Novartis acquires SNV4818 from Synnovation Therapeutics, a PI3Kα asset for up to $3B. This is important, as it validates the space, confirms demand, but also removes one potential buyer.