Noah VanSickle
64 posts


posted on this back in march, but this will eventually become a study in a biz school somewhere. claude had the upper hand for the last two quarters due to their harness + model quality showing breakthroughs for production grade coding. they lost that lead almost overnight. heres why: 1. they treated their model as the moat, which wasnt sustainable as all OAI had to do was tune for code and release. the real moat for power users(the main consumer base + source for coding data) is price/perfomance and UX of the harness. OAI holds all compute and a comparable model so they get the price floor, simple as. 2. for some reason, anthropic decided to release a PR stint around Mythos with the implication that devs weren't to be trusted with such power, and its clear at this point it really was an attempt to declare their pivot away from the consumer to enterprise. this was also interpreted as a signal that anthropic wont be releasing SOTA to the consumer anymore, so users switched. OAI released a comparable model anyway and the world didn't implode, so, theres that too. 3. OAI bought all the talent for the harness they could over the last 12 months, Alex app, etc all got folded into one thing: make codex the best ever. All efforts in the company went towards this, instead of silently abandoning Claude Code users for enterprise like Anthropic is probably doing. 4. The claude code team is faced with hard choices, report the churn as a price/perfomance issue and take that up with execs, only to be told they cant budge, or try to find core UX issues that might win back some users. both choices are suboptimal and wont solve. core lesson: if you plan to abandon your core customer, be really careful how you execute that or you may end up in a canyon you cant cross












It's quite impressive that even with how quickly and effectively LLMs can move now, my adhd is still able to overwhelm their action potential. Instead of getting caught up and staying on top it all better, I have just increased the amount of things on my plate I'm juggling until I'm back to the same relative baseline of being overwhelmed that I'm comfortable with.












