Kalki
265 posts
Since I published semiconductor sub-themes around 1 month ago, this is how those names performed:
$PENG +72%
$NVTS +68%
$SYNA +52%
$GFS +38%
$CRDO +11%
$PLAB 0%
$COHU 0%
$ICHR -2%
$AOSL -4%
$ENTG -12%
Seems like many of you enjoyed those weekend semiconductor threads.
Might need to do another sub-theme thread soon 👀
Venu@Venu_7_
Semiconductor sub-themes still in Stage 1 bases 10 names building massive Stage 1 bases as semis pull back in the coming weeks, these are the names worth keeping on your watchlist thread below 🧵 (a few names you’ve probably never heard of)
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$SIVE gave investors chance to buy in when it consolidated around 45-55SEK
Did you get in?
Now it's gone completely verticals more than double digit % on 3 consecutive trading days...
Reminds me of $AXTI
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@aleabitoreddit many were saying 100sek by end of the year, but it might hit that level by end of this week🔥
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Did you listen anon?
$SIVE is extremely early.
And we’re about to see a ton of institutional inflow (Blackrock, Vanguard, MSCI, NASDAQ) next week for the first time.
Then, couple that with NASDAQ listing soon, with even more US institutions entering.
This is what it’s like to be in a name like $AXTI or $LITE at the very beginning.
And this is still at a point before major institutional capital hit the float or CPO supercycle has ramped.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE is the largest beneficiary of brand new events this weekend: 1. Sivers new NASDAQ index inclusion (OMX Stockholm): Both Vanguard and Blackrock are new passive inflows. With ~$60M+ pure buying pressure inflow, into existing float, together with MSCI next week. 2. US Gov and Sweden sign agreement for joint tech collaboration. $SIVE is one of the few CHIPS act recipients, and especially in Sweden. And if you don’t remember, they received another $6.6M CHIPS act award last week. Making $SIVE heavily supported + critical to the US government. - TLDR: New passive institutional inflow from your largest US institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard. Compounded with US government backing into $SIVE. Over the weekend. Beneficial for fundamentals (revenue/TAM from Pentagon supply chains) and inflow from Blackrock/Vanguard/MSCI/NASDAQ. Extremely bullish.
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@LIWEI_TWCapital In fact, I started my semiconductor journey in Taiwan back in 2011! I’m a great fan of the country. I knew all along that TSMC was great back then and is even greater now!
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@Matrix_B0SS Exactly, now it’s left to one’s own conviction. I think everybody has the opportunity to make some money here.
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Are you listening? Keep asking what is next, what is next, what is next,
Serenity keeps telling $SIVE $SIVE $SIVE
SAME QUESTION AGAIN AND AGAIN
ANSWER NEVER CHANGES $SIVE IS THE NEXT $SIVE
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE (laser), Foci (fau/optical components), Shunsin (packaging/test), MSSCorp (yields) are personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.
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AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections.
You're not bullish enough.
And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom:
-> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics.
-> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics.
-> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO.
-> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics.
All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them.
There's many more in other industries as well.
-> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS.
-> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK.
And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion.
We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.
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@darvasboxtrader @rkroutbbsr If these big companies win, the whole ecosystem will win too!
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@rkroutbbsr I am talking about penny stocks..
And already said still lot of space there in balloon
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Next #Bubble:
#AI and its adjacent sectors like semiconductors, server hardware, computer peripherals, data centers, etc.
Still a lot of room left in this bubble before it fully bursts.
US penny stocks are already showing movements similar to the dot-com phase.
Every company now wants to position itself as an “AI play.”
Bubble formation and bubble bursts are the biggest wealth-creation opportunities , if played properly.
During bubble phases, your real skill is not how much you make…
it’s how much you manage to take home before the music 🎶 stops.
#DARVAS🥸
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@mitchh98_ Thank you, I will definitely! OSS is a good company.
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Current SiPh/CPO/1.6T+ portfolio:
- $SIVE (InP lasers, next LITE with high diversification) - 35%
- $TRT (next AEHR with triple-digit revenue growth) - 5%
- $PENG (early-stage memory scaling through photonics) - 5%
Looking into $IQE for an entry and $LPK (possibly).
Sold $AAOI, $SOI, and $TSEM - only because I wanted to find better upside. Bullish sentiment doesn’t change in any.
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@kaikaibtc There are lot of Aura farming guys on X and very few people like @aleabitoreddit in the FinX community helping small retail investors.
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最可怕的不是他5个月32倍，是他把投研这件事外包给了AI
最近X上有个很火的美股交易员👉，「前 RISC-V Foundation 成员，AI 研究科学家；现在的工作是——交易那些没人注意到的瓶颈。」
看起来就是一个喜欢在网上吹牛的散户，对吧？直到我看到了他2026年5月晒出的那张收益截图。
2026年至今（5个半月）：+3,152.77%。
不是32%。是32倍。
而且这已经是「回撤之后」的数字。他在2025年7月才注册这个账号，到2025年底的半年里已经做到了630%的回报。
他买了23只股票。没有一只涨幅低于100%。涨得最多的那一只，翻了84倍。
如果你2026年1月1日给他1万美金，到5月20日，你可以拿回32.5万美金。10万进去，325万出来。
涨得最少的一只，翻了一倍。涨得最多的那一只，翻了84倍。
所以我把他这几个月的推特全部扒了一遍，发现这个人不是传统意义上的「基本面研究」。
他做的事情，我称之为——
「AI驱动的全球供应链瓶颈套利」。
👉23只股票，23次提前预知市场
这23只股票有一个共同特点：它们都不是什么明星股，全是你可能从没听过名字的公司。
但恰恰是这些没人注意的公司，每一只都精准地卡在AI产业链的「咽喉」位置——一旦断货，整个行业都得停下来等。
他看的是更底层的问题：如果AI继续扩张，哪一环会先不够用？
AI产业链的第一层瓶颈，比如GPU、HBM、电力、数据中心，已经被所有人盯烂了。真正能出超额收益的，往往是第二层、第三层：光模块、激光器、InP衬底、SOI晶圆、外延设备、晶圆级测试、IC载板、特殊玻纤。
最典型的是 AXTI。Serenity 在 Reddit / WSB 上发过一篇很夸张的帖子，把 AXTI 写成整个西方AI建设的“单点故障”：不是因为它名字响，而是因为 InP 衬底和上游材料卡在光通信、硅光、CPO这条线上。
👉他到底怎么实现的：普通人用AI看研报，他用AI制造研究差
很多人一听“AI投资”，脑子里想的是：问ChatGPT买什么股票，问DeepSeek这家公司好不好，问Perplexity总结一下财报。
这基本没用。因为同一个问题，所有人都能问，所有人都能得到差不多的答案。Serenity 的用法更像是把AI当成一整个投研助理团。
1. 先让AI拆产业链，而不是让AI推荐股票
如果全球AI数据中心继续扩张，从GPU、HBM、网络、光模块、衬底、外延、测试、封装、PCB、玻纤到电力，分别会卡在哪里？这个问题一变，答案就完全不一样，你会得到一张产业链地图
。
2. 再让AI沿着每个环节找供应商
比如你拆到光通信，就继续问：光模块里最难扩的是哪一段？激光器供应商有哪些？InP衬底谁供？外延片谁做？这些公司是上市公司吗？市值多大？过去有没有进入核心客户供应链？
3. 然后让AI做交叉验证，而不是只听一个故事
这个瓶颈会不会被替代？这家公司有没有产能？客户有没有验证？收入什么时候可能体现？有没有被稀释风险？有没有地缘风险？有没有管理层问题？估值是不是已经透支三年？
真正值得学的是问题 。
Serenity 这件事给普通人最残酷的提醒是：AI没有让投资变简单，AI只是把“研究量”的上限抬高了。
他的核心方法论可以压成五句话：
先确认超级趋势，不在小风口里找幻觉。
把趋势拆成物理供应链，不停留在概念层。
找第二层、第三层瓶颈，不追已经被充分定价的龙头。
用AI扩大检索、整理和反证能力，不让AI直接替你拍脑袋。
最后用人的产业理解和风险纪律决定仓位，而不是让模型替你冲。
Serenity在字典上是「宁静、安详」。
真正的宁静，不是不关心外界。而是当整个市场都在为「英伟达又涨了」而喧嚣、为「某某概念又火了」而狂热的时候——你却安静地坐在那里，看着一张全球供应链的地图，思考一个问题：
「如果AI继续扩张——下一个会被卡住的环节，在哪里？」
这个问题，才是他5个月32倍的真正秘密。
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@_juicebox99_ I don't see FOCI becoming a $50B+ company.
They focus on one thing like optical components + FAU for $TSM / $NVDA, then do it at scale. So that would likely drives structural re-rating related to MC.
Not quite the same as the US model of TAM expanding into $100B+ companies.
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For $SIVE to become the next $80B+ $LITE.
Sivers is the current laser kingmaker of the optical transition to CPO and 1.6T.
They basically supply lasers to the leading players in the CPO space.
From likely $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, and others for CPO. before they got big.
And now with large players like $JBL for 1.6T LRO + more test/qualifications underway for pluggables.
They've finally solved the Catch22 problem, and have the attention of the market to pull off foundational CPO related IP acquisitions downstream on NASDAQ listing (or now with equity).
And expand revenue as much as possible from the laser source into:
-> Optical Engine/ELS value.
-> Optical Transceiver IP
Just like $LITE did to drive their valuations from $2B -> $80B in 2 years.
But instead of EML + pluggables, Sivers is doing this for the CPO supercycle, the fastest TAM expansion in history for photonics.
I'm following the story for them to pull this off this David vs. Goliath shift catching up to $LITE.
More than I care about little MC % returns that's happening currently.
Barbara Kek@kekbarbara
@aleabitoreddit What’s your goal on Sive @aleabitoreddit
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@athuinvests 100 might be around the corner🔥
will add on any post earnings pullback!
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Name your current top 3 photonic stocks.
Mine: $SIVE, $SOI & $TSEM
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The Cockroach Janta Party will not be engaging with any Godi Media anchors.
So please don’t bother reaching out for interviews or interactions.
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🚨 I SOLD all my $KRKNF stocks.
The only reason is because I want to add more in $SIVE and other AI infrastructure stocks. Maybe keep a bit of cash in hand too.
No doubt Kraken is a hidden gem, and I won’t stop covering it. The opportunity for them is massive and I expect real gains. 5X+ like. ☺️
I feel like a lot of the current momentum is with photonics, memory and compute stocks. And I am missing out on doubling my portfolio again this year.
I made this decision with $GRAB in the past. It was a hard one because I was down. $KRKNF’s returns are 50%+ for me. I am happy with that.
Current portfolio:
- Photonics: $SIVE, $AAOI, $TSEM, $SOI
- Memory: $PENG
- AI SaaS: $ZETA
- Compute: $NBIS
Stocks I sold (still bullish on):
- $GRAB
- $KRKNF (NEW)
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@Mrsinha @Aftenposten @norwayinindia Have some shame @Aftenposten!
You can only sit back and seethe with envy at India’s rise as a global superpower.
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A racist caricature of PM Modi as a “snake charmer” by Norwegian newspaper @Aftenposten .
Hope @norwayinindia takes cognisance of this.
Colonial arrogance dies hard.
The West mocked India when it was poor.
Now they mock India because it is powerful.
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@HelleLyngSvends @IndiainNorway Hello @IndiainNorway officials, why do we give insignificant people a chance to achieve fame?
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@IndiainNorway Yes, I am already signed up. Will I also be able to interview Modi?
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Dear Ms @HelleLyngSvends,
The Embassy is organizing a press briefing on the Prime Minister’s Visit this evening at 9:30pm at hotel Raddisson BluPlaza hotel. You are most welcome to come and ask your questions there.
Helle Lyng@HelleLyngSvends
Primeminister of India, Narendra Modi, would not take my question, I was not expecting him to. Norway has the number one spot on the World Press Freedom Index, India is at 157th, competing with Palestine, Emirates & Cuba. It is our job to question the powers we cooperate with.
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