Venezuelanalysis

An Israeli court extended the detention of two activists from a Gaza flotilla, who were brought to Israel for questioning. Spanish Saif Abu Keshek and Brazilian Thiago Avila were arrested after Israeli forces illegally intercepted their boat in international waters.

Quick takes on the new Cuba sanctions EO out today: 1. The new Cuba sanctions are potentially very broad. Basically any non-U.S. person or company doing any business in/with Cuba could be sanctioned. Initial focuses are businesses involved in the energy, defense, mining, finance, and security sectors, but these can be expanded. 2. In many respects, the new EO resembles EO 14024 from 2021, which created a broad authority to sanction Russia. (As a partial drafter of that EO, it is interesting to see some of the provisions carried over here). 3. Most designations will be status-based, e.g., "operated in X sector," or "is a Cuban official," rather than requiring the government to prove specific conduct, though there are also conduct-related designations, for, eg, corruption. 4. The EO puts the State Department in the lead for making sanctions designations. Trump expanded State's role in sanctions designations during his first term, and this is consistent with that, as well as with Rubio's interest in Cuba. (State has long had a role in specific sanctions designations, and a critical policy and diplomatic role on all sanctions, but Trump expanded the designations authorities given to State). 5. The EO gives the Trump Administration a fair amount of easy-to-deploy firepower to drive remaining international businesses out of Cuba. The questions will be in implementation. For example, will Trump sanction a Chinese firm installing renewable energy in Cuba? (Cuban renewables have been growing given the oil crisis).