Granth Verma

everyone's arguing about whether the next move is up or down. almost nobody's asking what breaks the model entirely. the interesting question in markets is never direction. it's when do the rules themselves change.

the stagflation trap is the part that makes this really ugly. 2Y screaming hikes, labor market still soft. Fed can't fix both at once. last time they faced that choice in the 70s they got it badly wrong twice before Volcker. what's your read on whether Powell even has room to hike into a weak jobs market?

What Is the Bond Market Signaling? Rate Cut or rate Hike? The Black line is the US 2-year yield. The Golden line is the Fed Funds Rate. Here is the story in three chapters. 2022 to 2023. The Fed hiked rates from near zero to 5.25% at the fastest pace in 40 years. The 2-year yield led every single move. It always does. The 2-year is the market's prediction of what the Fed will do next. 2024 to early 2026. The Fed cut three times. Rates fell to 3.64%. The 2-year fell with it all the way down. Everything was pointing toward more cuts. The market was comfortable. Then March 2026 happened. Look at the right side of the chart. That sharp vertical spike. The 2-year just broke back above 4%. It has punched clean through the Fed Funds Rate of 3.64% from below. That crossing is the signal. The last time the 2-year yield was above the Fed Funds Rate it meant the market was pricing in hikes not cuts. Right now with the 2-year at 4% and Fed Funds at 3.64% the bond market is saying the same thing again. Three weeks ago the market was pricing two cuts. Today it is pricing a possible hike. That is a complete reversal of the entire monetary policy outlook in 25 days. The descending triangle on this chart just broke upward violently. Next resistance is the 2024 high around 4.5 to 5%. If oil stays above $90 that level gets tested. Follow @NeelMacro. The next move is already in the data. Rest. #DYOR

The US bond market is in major trouble today. Just hours after President Trump's "10-day pause" of strikes on Iranian power plants, yields are at their highest level of the Iran War yet. The 10Y Note Yield is up to 4.47% with mortgage rates hitting fresh 7-month highs. In less than one month, markets have gone from discussing rate cuts to rate hikes, with the base case showing a Fed PAUSE for the next 18 months. Keep in mind, the Fed was cutting interest rates because the labor market was weak, and it remains weak. However, inflation expectations have just become an even bigger problem than the labor market. This is objectively unsustainable.

@PeterLBrandt the descending wedge targets on that chart are pointing to the $49K area. if classical charting is as clean on BTC as you're saying, that's a level a lot of people aren't mentally prepared for

Note to cryptomaniacs I find it amusing when I read on X chatter that charting does not work on an asset like Bitcoin.🤣 Actually, Bitcoin obeys the rules of classical charting (Schabacker, Edwards/Magee) better than most markets What you think does not matter to me $BTC

@cryptorover the IRGC confirmed the closure on March 2. this is now week four of ongoing tanker attacks, not a new development. the market knows. what actually moves things now is the US Navy escort timeline or a ceasefire, not each individual strike

💥BREAKING: 🇮🇷 Iran blows up another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC confirms the Strait of Hormuz is closed.

@KobeissiLetter yields ripping on a "pause" is the bond market calling the bluff. if this was actually de-escalating, 10Y doesn't go to 4.47. the steepening curve is the real tell. 2Y barely moved, 10Y up over 1%. market is saying the inflation problem is structural now, not just a war spike

@BullTheoryio the dollar amounts are noise. $375M is a rounding error on $200B in revenue. the real hit is what happens to Section 230 if these verdicts survive appeal. that's the legal foundation the entire business model sits on. market is pricing tail risk, not the actual fines

BREAKING: $META is down 7% today, wiping out $100 BILLION from its market cap. This happened after a cluster of negative headlines hit at the same time. Jury verdicts in the US held Meta liable in social media addiction cases, raising the risk of more lawsuits and tighter regulation. At the same time, Meta is guiding $115–135B in AI spending, putting pressure on margins and cash flow. Layoffs tied to this shift show costs are rising as the company reallocates toward AI. Markets are repricing the stock as both legal risk and spending pressure increase.

@cryptorover LTH SOPR at 0.7 means the average long-term holder selling right now is realizing a 30% loss. historically that level of pain marks late-stage capitulation, not the beginning of it. uncomfortable data if you're bearish

💥BREAKING: Bitcoin long-term holders are back in loss Every time this happens, the bottom is closer than people think

@zerohedge OECD drops stagflation forecast and yields are screaming. the 2% isn't the move, it's what comes next if the 10Y doesn't cooperate

*NASDAQ 100 INDEX EXTENDS DECLINE TO 2%

4.2% inflation with the Fed already frozen and Warsh coming in as the next chair. the market was pricing two cuts this year six months ago. now the dot plot is flirting with hikes. that's a 150-200bps swing in rate expectations in under a year. that's the real story, not just the inflation number itself

BREAKING: The Iran War will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to a newly released OECD forecast. Details include: 1. The jump in inflation is expected to slow US GDP growth to 2.0% this year and 1.7% in 2027 2. Global growth is expected to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026 3. Headline inflation expectations in the G20 have been revised up by 1.2 percentage points in 2026 to 4% 4. Eurozone growth is expected to slow to just 0.8% this year Potential rate HIKES in the US and EU are now back on the table.

@AshCrypto the carry trade math is breaking down in real time. yen carry has funded global risk assets for years. BOJ hiking into oil-driven inflation while the 5Y hits record highs is exactly the setup that triggered the August 2024 flush. different catalyst, same mechanism.

BREAKING: 🇯🇵 Japan 5-year bond yield has hit its highest level ever. Just when we thought war uncertainty would be over, Japan's bond market crisis is back.

@cryptorover same setup as the last wedge. and we know how that ended.

Bulls better hope this support line holds.

Houthis informally disrupted Mandeb in 2024 and shipping rates tripled just from rerouting around the Cape. that was partial and unofficial. an actual Iranian closure on top of Hormuz pressure isn't a 25% supply shock in isolation, it's also a 2-3 week delay on every alternative route. the volume number understates the real hit

BREAKING: Iran says it could shut the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on its territory or islands. Details include: 1. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is a narrow passage linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea 2. ~12% of global seaborne oil passes through Bab al-Mandab 3. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is the world’s 4th-largest shipping chokepoint 4. If both Hormuz and Mandeb are closed, total offline capacity could near 25 million barrels per day, or ~25% of global supply We now await the US' response to Iran's "five conditions" for a ceasefire.

@zerohedge nobody wants to hold duration right now. war spending, Warsh premium, inflation not cooperating. the 5Y tail is the bond market saying "price us better or we walk"

Another terrible auction: 5Y high yield 3.980%, WI 3.966%, 1.4bps tail, biggest tail since Oct 2024

worst timing possible for Moscow. oil above $100 from the Iran war was supposed to offset sanctions pressure. now they're losing roughly 2 million bpd of export capacity at the exact moment the price spike should've been bailing out the budget. both supply shocks hitting simultaneously is not something the models priced in

#Russia: At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data. The shutdown is the most severe oil supply disruption in the modern history of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, and has hit Moscow just as oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel due to the Iran war. #OOTT

@cryptorover captive distribution network just got a product to sell. 15,000 advisors, $5.5T in client assets. the inflow math writes itself

💥BREAKING: Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF $MSBT gets official listing approval from the New York Stock Exchange.

@BullTheoryio the speed of the reversal matters as much as the size. a 46% drop in 6 days means the initial spike was almost pure fear premium, not actual supply disruption. real supply cuts don't unwind that fast. markets are saying Hormuz never actually closed, just got scary

BREAKING: Oman Oil has crashed 46% in just 6 trading days When the U.S. attacked Iran on February 28, Oman crude pumped +143%, from $66.9 to a peak of $173.19. It is now trading at $93.22. The market is pricing in a U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

@WatcherGuru the Information reported SpaceX is filing a prospectus as soon as this week. polymarket is lagging the actual news flow here

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 69% chance Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO's next quarter.

@cryptorover every bounce off that channel resistance has looked like the breakout until it wasn't. current setup is basically identical to mid-2024 before the flush to 50K

I smell Bitcoin bull traps incoming.

BlackRock needs advisors at other firms to choose IBIT off a crowded shelf. Morgan Stanley has 15,000+ of their own advisors who now have a proprietary product to pitch. that's not competition, that's a captive channel. fee war incoming too, they haven't even disclosed the rate yet

Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF $MSBT got an official listing announcement from NYSE, that typically means launch imminent..

@WatcherGuru that's TradFi quietly admitting crypto's infrastructure is better than their own

JUST IN: Franklin Templeton launches tokenized ETFs that trade 24/7 in crypto wallets.

ARM moving from IP licensor to chip seller is a direct shot at its own customers. Qualcomm, MediaTek, Apple all license ARM architecture. now ARM wants margin they've been leaving on the table. the $15B projection is aggressive but the customer conflict is real and nobody's talking about it yet

Premarket movers Mag 7 stocks all rise (Alphabet +1.3%, Amazon +1.3%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +1.5%, Meta +0.9%, Microsoft +1%, Tesla +1.8%), Arm Holdings (ARM) rises 12% after the semiconductor designer said it will start selling its own chips for the first time. The new business is expected to generate about $15 billion annually within five years. Blaize Holdings (BZAI) soars 42% after the semiconductor device company reported its fourth-quarter results and gave an outlook that analysts are positive on. Braze (BRZE) gains 21% after the software company forecast revenue for the first quarter that was higher than the average analyst estimate. The company also reported better-than-expected revenue for the fourth quarter. Chewy (CHWY) gains 6% after online retailer of pet food posted fourth-quarter results. General Motors Co. (GM) climbs 2% after Wolfe raised its rating to outperform, saying investors may be underestimating several tailwinds, including a lower net tariff burden. EchoStar (SATS) rises 5%, Rocket Lab (RKLB) gains 3% and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) climbs 3% as the Information reports that SpaceX aims to file a prospectus for an initial public offering as soon as this week. KB Home (KBH) falls 4% after the single-family home builder forecast deliveries for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Sturm Ruger & Co. (RGR) rises 5% after the gunmaker said Beretta Holding said it’s prepared to commence a tender offer for up to 20% of the outstanding shares not already owned at a purchase price of $44.80 per share. Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) gains 5% after Merck & Co. agreed to buy the drugmaker in a $6.7 billion deal.