Vic Ramon
558 posts
Vic Ramon
@vicramon
Recovering tech founder. Former Co-founder & CTO @AdQuick. Early @instacart. Currently, CTO/Product consultant.
Venice, CA Katılım Mart 2008
1.2K Takip Edilen444 Takipçiler
I can't wait for when I can stop monitoring the situation & can focus on building & completing the ideas I want to disseminate to humanity.
I hate being an investor: relying on others to build for me when I love building sucks. I'm printing millions, but bored on the sidelines.
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@Kacper_PK_CH Ah I see, thanks for explaining! I'm learning from your posts, appreciate the insights. Would definitely subscribe if you end up offering a paid newsletter.
Do you decide to go long automatically on the EMA cross, or are there other factors that must also align?
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No problem. 🙂
If I entered trade today, then we could pullback 4% and still stay in short-term uptrend (past 20 days). In my system I would have to stay long. At close below 21EMA on daily, probably around -5% I would close. That kind of wide range is fine if we're talking commodities, but with indices I like less wide range.
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Something to write about this weekend:
When to enter new trades?
There are, of course, dozens of good ways, but maybe mine will be of interest to some.
Normally, what I need is at least a short-term reversal (past 20 days) confirmation to enter with half a position. But there is also an additional filter to apply, and that is how far the entry is from the risk / cutoff level. Here, in the last S&P 500 move, it’s consistently around 5% now, which is way too high.
Doing it this way means, of course, I won’t catch every swing, but here’s the thing, we don’t have to. We often only need one or two favorite setups to be consistently profitable.
With $SPX I'm also watching 7,000 call wall and Friday OpEx.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH
S&P 500 - $ES / $SPX / $SPY Market will always be interesting. What a rally! Hats off to traders who played it all the way! I got the original bounce, one more for a trade and then .. I froze a bit, still happens after all these years. But at least I didn't short.🙂 We're now at previous highs, reached all the way to call resistance at 7,000 on $ES, quite low volume across all major indices $SPY $QQQ $IWM. So now what? If you know me by now, then you can guess. The reaction here will be quite important. Nothing is quite as obvious so I'd not be surprised if we push higher and perhaps pull back for a breather. But if we break over ATH and hold, then may very well be a new medium-term trend (20 weeks). Let's see.
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@Kacper_PK_CH Thanks for the reply. I mean, what is the definition of this number? You said it's 5% right now, where does that come from?
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@ZeeContrarian1 Appreciate your insights. But on this one, are you not worried about the macro situation at all? Iran needs enrichment for security, Israel wants zero, Trump seems to do what Israel wants, so how can they come to an agreement? I want to be wrong but I'm pessimistic
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In a note to clients yesterday, JPMorgan told them they’re starting to feel optimistic about the markets-after an 8% move from the bottom.
I’m sorry, but this is how markets work. By the time everyone tells you to buy, you’ve already missed most of the move.
That’s why you have to start buying at the extremes, when everything looks bad and everyone is telling you it’s only going to get worse.
If you’re not sure when that time is, I’ll help you out: at least start when $VIX is above 30 and markets down 8% or more.
Z@ZeeContrarian1
Everyone on X is waiting for the “buy sign.” Even Jim Cramer said: “Until the straits are open, stay away.” But that’s not how markets work. When the buy signal finally appears: Oil will already be below $80 (after being ~$110) $VIX will already be below 22 (after being ~30) And markets will already be up 2–3%. Sorry. That’s how markets work
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@GavMcCracken The blockade news hit Sunday. They have to show up at the office on Monday, have a meeting, make a decision, and program in a buying/selling program.
More evidence for this: Monday March 2nd, the first market day after the bombings, was actually a medium green candle.
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@GavMcCracken 1/2 I also find this crazy. I have a theory, at least for SPX. What if, upon the ceasefire news and ensuing talks, huge institutions set their switches back to long, but because they can't buy all at once, it's happening through automated metered buys....
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@vicramon What are you asking? When I sell I guess.
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Oil - I'm still in, trend holds (21EMA), let's see what other bearish news they can throw at it.
Kacper Piotr Kaminski@Kacper_PK_CH
I’ll probably be stopped out eventually on the oil trade. But at this point, I don’t care, I define my risk and go. 60% of my trades are small losses, 20% are breakeven, and 20% are home runs, which I keep because I hate selling the uptrends.
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OIL/USD (WTI) 🛢️ — from 3/9: “Now that a bunch of people probably bought the top at ~$116, oil will start to grind back up to $100 and then dump back to the $80s again on another round of bogus victory propaganda.” 👌
Behold 🔮🫡
Dr. Potassium@potassium_phd
OIL/USD (WTI) 🛢️ — bottom is probably in or close for oil after flushing leverage today. Last night was a direct hit on the 2022 falling wedge measured move 🎯 Now that a bunch of people probably bought the top at ~$116, oil will start to grind back up to $100 and then dump back to the $80s again on another round of bogus victory propaganda. Oil goes much higher than $120 long-term; probably somewhere around $230 this year — but it won’t be straight up. That would make it too easy for retail to benefit. I’m still long Petrobras — which, by the way, closed up +4% today even though WTI dumped -32% from the top. Can’t make this stuff up. You just have to understand how the elite operate. They are not our friends. Stay slippery 🫡
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@labubu_trader @bubbleboi From what I read:
- they would know where the mines are
- some mines are smart, their ships can broadcast a code so they don't blow up
- mines would go in the deeper parts of the strait, their ships instead would stay closer to their own coast, which they control more easily
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@bubbleboi I still don’t understand how can they deploy mines to block others but not impact their own shipping routes?
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A few comments:
1) Iran's oil is ~1.5-2 million barrels per day of the ~20 million barrels per day that flows through Hormuz. The real target isn't their own exports it's Saudi, UAE, Kuwaiti, and Iraqi barrels.
2) Iran does have a partial bypass which is the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman. It’s not at full capacity, but enough to keep some revenue flowing while the strait is chaos.
3) Oil is a commodity yes but there are different qualities or grades of oil. This matters a lot because refineries can’t just swap Iranian oil for American shale they have a very different treatment process. Iranian oil is a medium-sour crude that Chinese refineries are specifically configured for. It produces more diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil per barrel than shale which is pretty important for the global economy.
4) Most importantly… they know exactly where the mines are lol. It's not mutual assured destruction, it's a toll booth they control. They can selectively disrupt while keeping their own channels open.
Syd Steyerhart@SydSteyerhart
I don't understand the whole mining the Strait of Hormuz thing. If they accomplished it, wouldn't this simply prevent them (and the region) from being able to export oil, and maximize the oil exporting power of Russia and North America? Genuinely confused.
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@calvinfroedge Iran can keep their economy afloat indefinitely by allowing China-bound ships through.
The U.S. would need to blockade those ships for leverage... which would ignite trade issues with China.
IMO the U.S. has way less leverage than Iran right now.
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Lmfao I called it
Peace comes when the US withdraws
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS: ANY ARAB OR EUROPEAN COUNTRY THAT EXPELS THE AMBASSADORS OF ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES FROM ITS TERRITORY WILL, STARTING TOMORROW, HAVE FULL AUTHORITY AND FREEDOM TO PASS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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@bunchofnumberz1 @calvinfroedge Explain how the U.S. wasn't able to stop the Houthis, but it will be able to stop Iran
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@calvinfroedge In an all-out-war for it's survival, Iran has managed to kill just 7 Americans, sink zero ships, and down zero planes.
You really think the US military won't be able to open to the strait?
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@potassium_phd I dk, the truth is getting through, not sure propaganda can bring the price down. Maybe big players try to do a flush, but I think it would regain quickly.
Trump could Taco, but my hunch is no earlier than Wednesday. Israel wants this war. He does what they want, clearly.
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Oil, gold, and silver — 🛢️🥇🥈 — prediction: now that oil has hit $116 over the weekend, re: Hyperliquid, a sharp sell off will likely result on Monday an hour or so after the open to wreck leveraged long oil traders 🔮
Victory propaganda from the West will come in heavy to try to stop the stock markets from crashing.
Commodities will dump too, and precious metals will continue to consolidate beneath ATHs until July or so as foretold by the labradorite 👉👉 x.com/potassium_phd/…
My not-financial-advice: take entry money off the table if you’re way up on an oil position and leave a moon bag of house money in play in case oil keeps running to $230 — but with a +35% move up in one week, higher over the weekend, and tons of speculators calling for higher without stopping — max pain will be a sharp pullback and then eventually a slower rise beyond $116 as it becomes clearer that Iran will be a quagmire and victory will be Pyrrhic.
Stackers delight if we get to keep buying at lower prices for longer 👉👉 x.com/potassium_phd/…
For the good of the order 🫡
Dr. Potassium@potassium_phd
OIL/USD 🛢️ — an outrageous week for oil, melting through resistance to more than $91/bbl already 👀 I said on Feb. 21st that it would likely see $110/bbl based on the measured move of the 2022 falling wedge. It could easily reach that target next week if this rate of ascent keeps up. At present, that would represent a greater-than +30% extension above its upper monthly Bollinger Band. If the government starts manipulating futures markets to get the price back under control as has been suggested, it could see an earth-shattering reversal once $110/bbl is reached. 👉👉 x.com/kgbullandbear/… I could be wrong. Maybe the reality of supply disruption is actually more important in this market than manipulation and liquidity grabs while the S&P500 rolls over. But maybe not. Be safe out there 🫡
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Buying more fertilizer stocks, chemicals, oil refineries, and biofuels Monday. Might be the whole port at this point
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@GavMcCracken Every time I see you and calvin on the TL I have to do a double take on what I just read
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Saudi Arabian oil assets under attack after Iran's new president said this would stop; the path to de-escalation is as clear as day. There's a 100% probability that oil goes to $50 on Monday. Everything proceeding as planned for the attackers (USA + Israel), no difficulties found
Nader Itayim | نادر ایتیّم@ncitayim
🇸🇦 Sources confirm @Aramco's 250k b/d Berri field on Saudi Arabia's east coast was target of a drone strike Saturday afternoon. I'm told impact was "very minor" which suggests interception debris. Follows five waves of drone strikes on Shaybah oil field earlier today. #oott
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@Yeah_Dave Thanks for sharing 🤙
How do you get access to all this institutional research? I see charts from Goldman, BofA, UBS, etc. in your tweets/articles.
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People are becoming way too bearish. The anxiety and fear is palpable.
Meanwhile the flows are about to turn next week.
Corporate buybacks are about to flip from seasonal lows to the highest daily buyback volume of the year ($30-50B per week) for the next six weeks.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
These whiplash moves in individual stocks are almost comical in severity but not surprising. Expect more of this in 2026. This won't be an "everything goes up" year like 2025. Picking the right names/sectors is key. Keeping risk and margin low is essential to survive this. A lot of churn and rebalancing is occurring under the surface while the indexes barely move. We are seeing larger swings under the surface than during COVID. Avoid developing an emotional bias during this. JPM I also again want to highlight what I said earlier: "I anticipate the next phase will be a turbulent and exhausting upward grind. Despite the general uptrend, this environment is going to be very difficult to manage if you carry too much risk." "there is still a tremendous amount of reckless positioning. Funds are in desperate amateur hour mode, chasing to fix their 2025 screw-ups. This leads to brittle, volatile swings as they puke their positions and then panic buy again."
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@calvinfroedge If banks are doing funny-business with paper, the margin hikes are actually good, people who want physical delivery won't have a problem putting up the full amount.
Raising margins to 100% may be the only way for Comex to actually be a legitimate market.
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They're literally going to drive the price of gold and silver to all time lows by the end of the month
You'll be wishing you bought nickels instead
bob coleman@profitsplusid
CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON Gold and Silver A third MARGIN increase within 10 days. Maintenance increases A 11% increase for gold futures A 20% increase for silver futures This is going into effect after the close of Friday Feb 6, 2026
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I just woke up and saw this is what happened to silver prices in the last hour of trading after US stocks close - does the US still have a regulator? Honest question here
JustDario@DarioCpx
BREAKING: We now have the confirmation they attacked and tried to break the silver market at SHFE today - The SHFE is now will restrict the relevant accounts. Translation from Chinese below. "On February 5, 2026, six groups of accounts under actual control exceeded the daily trading volume limit for relevant contracts , reaching the exchange's processing standard. The aforementioned clients' trading activities violated Article 16 of the " Shanghai Futures Exchange Abnormal Trading Behavior Management Measures ," and the exchange decided to take regulatory measures to restrict the opening of positions by the relevant clients in the corresponding contracts."
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