@AdamMancini4 @upandown007 It will probably morph into a new pattern as you normally say.
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Vivek Dave
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Vivek Dave
@vikidave
Day Trader, Explorer.Communicator.Friend of animals everywhere. Total music aficionado.Typical student of 📈📉.
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@upandown007 Yes but there's two questions there...whether it broke out (it has) and whether it will stick (no way to know, and don't care)
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Clean follow through in #ES_F and full target slate ran. Today's task given 8am was the same as everyday: Wait for the bear trap. 7411 was the trap lvl. We trapped bears there, recovered, longed. Targets I gave were 7428 (hit), 7436 (hit), 7442 (hit), 7450 (hit).
Protect profit
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We got our daily bear trap in #ES_F and as warned at 8am - we just need to wait for it. I posted watch traps of 7411. We swept it to 7402, recovered, longed. Targets given were 7428 (hit), 7436 (hit), 7442, 7450 next. Just ride runner from here on out. 7450-55 to 7363=a new flag
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Volatility dropping to nearly nothing now & poor conditions remain as #ES_F keeps pushing from the massive Monday 7199 backtest/7213 Failed Breakdown. As posted, we just built a small bull flag overnight. Targets were 7400 (hit), 7411, 7426.
7388 now micro support. 7377 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Poor conditions for day traders in #ES_F. I talk non-stop about leaving runners on every entry. Its so we *always* have exposure for moves like this. Last entry was Monday's 7199 backtest/7213 failed breakdown. Flagging now. 7400 (hit), 7411, 7426 next. Same supports (77, 69)
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Note: Again, nothing to do until we get an injection of volatility and "elevator down" sell. Nothing of remote interest until sub 7103 x.com/AdamMancini4/s…
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Note: As I've said probably 10 times this week - there is nothing to do up here. In order to trade, we need volatility. Volatility means an "elevator down" sell which can then setup a Failed Breakdown. Yesterday we fortunately got a micro dip to add. Absent that, just ride runner
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While its only 9:10AM, all targets for today have been completed already in #ES_F as our runner from Sunday's 6793 long keeps paying. Today's targets given 8am and in newsletter were 7103, 7116, then 7131. All hit.
Ride that runner. 7154, 7162, 7177 today's bonus slate
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@AdamMancini4 @CardboardPdf I have been seeing many posting wyckoff chart with significant downside from here.
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@CardboardPdf If you look on my April 4th original bullish chart/post you'll see many comments calling for downside including some larger accounts posting big arrows straight down. Same traps over and over in ES
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@AdamMancini4 @Taylor8xeno8 I found this one really helpful from @LindaRaschke “If you stay 100% technical, you will quickly see that news does not matter 95% of the time”
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@Taylor8xeno8 That's a good sign! They'll reappear on the first elevator down sell though
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Absolutely no volatility today in #ES_F as our runner from Sunday's 6793 Failed Breakdown continues to pay. We are getting target hits though still. Today's target slate was 7021 1st target (hit). 7036, 7048 if ES wants more.
7002, 6983=supports (watch traps). Nothing to do now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
No volatility & again, 0 to do but ride runners from Sunday's 6793 Failed Breakdown which was given extensively in advance. No entries until we get a sell. Yesterday's targets were 6967 main, 7002 (hit). Today's slate=7021, 7036, 7048. 7002, 6983 (watch traps) are supports.
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@AdamMancini4 For the people who missed this move, don’t worry. There will be plenty of opportunities once ES starts to pull back. We’re seeing institutional footprints now as we grind upward.
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Still nothing to do but let our runner work, now +184 point from Sunday's 6793 Failed Breakdown given live in #ES_F. Today's target slate was given at 8am: 6948 (hit), 6858 (hit), 6967 (hit). Bonus slate was 6978 (hit), 7002 then 7021 if ES wants more.
Let the runner pay
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Biggest long of 2026 continues to pay and we are working today's targets in #ES_F. 6793 Failed Breakdown was our entry Sunday. I warned yesterday 2:55PM that much more upside was coming Today's targets given 8am were 6948 (hit), 6958 (hit), 6967 (not yet). 6978 will be 1st bonus
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Its fairly common (and actually bullish, you'll notice traps below the 200dma are common), matters more if the 50dma crosses under the 200dma but there also needs to be major structural failures that occur. Its a very boring market now on a macro basis as its just a big consolidation. Good for day trading though!
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Big Picture View: Last week, I posted #ES_F built a 1 month bull flag & it was set to breakout. This week, it did, ending the downtrend & rallied 300 points
Plan Next Week: Bulls want to hold 6817, 6793 lowest. This keeps 6903, 6950 live. Dip, then 7068. 6793 fails, we retrace
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@AdamMancini4 Hi Adam, in the context of macro uptrend , how common for the market to trade below 200 DMA ? We spent more than 20 days this time.
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@upandown007 I just respect the macro trend - we are in the consolidation phase of a very healthy bull market (we have been in the same big range for 6 months and currently at same prices as October. Nothing bearish technically on the chart in any way on a macro basis, at least not yet
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@SuperHumanEpoch All moves are headline driven, the technicals get us positioned before. Institutions were loading up all day
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Standard #ES_F behavior to near my final target in the final seconds of trading. I had a rare 5 target slate for today on the 6592 reclaim. Targets were 6604 (hit), 6622 (hit), 6638 (hit), 6647 (hit), 6662 (3 points shy)
6677, 6692, 6716 next. Newsletter just sent with entries
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Closing update #ES_F: 6592 reclaims paid out for a 4 target run with 6604, 6622, 6638, and 6647 targets all hit. Only target not hit yet is 6662 on this run - just hold a lotto for it. Newsletter out soon with entries for this evening and there should be a few
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@gambotage We have been at the same price for 2hrs now. That is chop, occuring at midday. Midday chop
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We are into mid-day chop in #ES_F but its good intraday conditions *as long as you take profits lvl to lvl as warned 30min ago*. 6593 reclaims trigger long as posed with 6604 1st target (hit), 6622. We hit 6618 then dipped
93 must reclaim to re-trigger. 67 (watch trap), 53 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Volatility gave us another entry as always in #ES_F. I posted 25mins ago that 6593 must reclaim to see 6604 (hit), 6622 magnet (almost). We are in a tactical day traders evnironment today - take profits level to level, or lose. 6638, 6647 if ES can stretch further. Same supports
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@ashwagamma @MrCapitulation The timing is always a little suspicious! Too many times I've seen these Failed Breakdowns right before a huge headline
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Absolutely incredible follow through on last nights 6360 Failed Breakdown in #ES_F, given in yesterday's 4pm newsletter. I warned at 8am to just hold runners today with targets being 6467 (hit), 6490 (hit), 6524 (hit).
+195 points now. Bonus slate are 6575, 6592. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Mid day chop time in #ES_F now, just hold runner. Long trigger was the 6360 (Sunday/Monday low) Failed Breakdown 830pm last eve. Targets were 6467 (hit), 6490 (hit), 6524 (not yet). Supports were 6447 posted (held to the tick 1hr ago), 6413-15. 6447 remains weak, watch traps
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Full round trip day in #ES_F and been tons of setups today. 6367 reclaim was initial long trigger after 6pm last evening. 6411, and 6425 reclaims were alternates, and we ran to 6454+ today.
6367 remains support, but weaker now. 6385 must recover to pop again. 6354, 6342 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Finally getting some vol expansion after hours of chop in #ES_F. 6412 was support was 6425 reclaim long trigger given at 10:03AM. Targets given were 6434 (hit), 6454 (hit exact). We rejected there and returned to chop. 6412 must reclaim now to resume up. 6385, 6367 supports
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@AdamMancini4 Do you also have the trendline connecting Oct and Nov lows passing through 92ish?
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@EpicCharting This 92 zone is huge. Its also where we rallied to backtest late day Friday
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We are finally getting some range expansion in #ES_F after spending 24hrs stuck mostly in the 6592-6623 chop zone. We held 6592 all night defending and trapping over and over. Volatility low now
6577 was 1st support down. Just hit. 6592 must reclaim with force to rally to 6623+
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We're back to 6592 in #ES_F and 6592-6623 remains a deep chop zone. Per newsletter ystd, 6592=key support. Overnight we held/trapped it, and rallied 60 points. Now, we are back again. Bulls need to push fast now (and ultimately recover 6623) to progress 6577, then 6564 below
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@AdamMancini4 @Trevormiles16 We simply need good volatility to trade this structure now otherwise no trade.
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@Trevormiles16 Its a very congested region now. Market digesting that big run
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Nonstop setups in #ES_F given both live here & in newsletter for big run from last eve/this morning. Most recent trade given at 11:38AM: Failed Breakdown of 6623. We swept it & ran. Targets were 6648 (hit), 6664, 6690, then 6716
Hold runner. Flagging all day. 6623=bull/bear line
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Another trade in the books in #ES_F. At 11:38AM (after running to 6690+ target) I posted to watch for traps of 6623. We trapped it down to 6617, recovered, longs triggered up 1st target was 6648, just. 6664, 6690, 6716 remain above. Bulls control above 6623, bears below
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@AdamMancini4 @TimePriceAction It is going to be an unusual OPEX day today
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Yesterday was all about 6623. Held 6-7x and we ran to 6658, 6690 bonus target. 2hrs ago we got *another* perfect Failed Breakdown. Per 4pm newsletter, traps of 6612 were actionable. We got it, ran to 6640
Plan: 6623=support. 6647, 6663, 6676 next. 6623 fails, dip 6612, 6592
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@AdamMancini4 52 was the massive support on feb 5th evening and just bounced from there.
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Its been straightforward day in #ES_F, all targets done. Its all about 6769. 6769 trap was our long trigger, given at 4pm to newsletter readers and live at 8:44AM. My final target was 6818-22, hit exact
We just flushed 6769 again, now back above. Same slate: 6778-82, 6794, 6818
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We've been printing points & all targets hit in #ES_F. As posted 8:44AM (and in 4pm newsletter) 6769 traps are long trigger. We got it. Targets were 6778, 6793, 6818 (exact high). We then held 6769 again 10:15AM for 32 points 6769 recoveries to rally again. 6758, 6739-42 below
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High quality trading in #ES_F and levels respecting well. I posted 6pm 6808 was support & 6828 reclaims sees 6855-60 which I said was big res. We hit 6855 *exact* sold 88 points, and squeezed
Plan today: 6808=support. 6822 reclaim sees 6828, 6838, 6844, 6855-60. 6795, 6782 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
As posted Friday at 4pm (before Iran news), a 40-100 point gap down likely in #ES_F and it came in ~45 points right on queue. Bulls want to recover the 6828 Tuesday low to see a pop to 6838, 6844, 6855-60 which is big resistance 6822, 6808 are next supports down from here
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Another day stuck in the range but at least we got a trade in #ES_F. 6870 (yesterdays low) Failed Breakdown was long trigger given. We got it. Target was 6884 1st up (hit), 6894 is 2nd, then 6899
Bulls need to recover 6899 to regain control. 6870 (watch traps), 6855=supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
That took its time but there's 6884 1st target up hit. As posted 6870 must reclaim to start a rally *attempt* in #ES_F. We got it, 6884 was 1st target, hit. 6894 next up, then 6899. Bears have the ball today until 6899 recovers above which we can work back towards that 6925 level
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