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Vinayak Deshmuk (polymarket arc)
154 posts
Vinayak Deshmuk (polymarket arc)
@vinayakbuild
AI enthusiast · quant finance · Polymarket vibe coding · tech news · web3 writing about what I build & what I learn
ton618 Katılım Ağustos 2023
19 Takip Edilen58 Takipçiler
Vinayak Deshmuk (polymarket arc) retweetledi
Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange.
Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after.
New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)🧵
The finding, up front:
Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
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Looks like my April 2026 hypothesis wasn't far off.
I suggested that 5-minute BTC markets were easier to manipulate during low-liquidity periods (weekends). This new research presents evidence consistent with that idea.
Ruizhe Jia@RuizheJia
Binance is arguably the world's largest crypto exchange. Feb 2026: Polymarket lists a small 5-minute Bitcoin contract. Since then, Binance order flow spikes in the final seconds before settlement; prices revert soon after. New paper with David Dai and Shihao Yu ( @ShihaoY ): Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…)🧵 The finding, up front: Traders push Bitcoin's price in the final seconds to decide the contract. That push makes the price less informative, yet Bitcoin's market more liquid. Market makers are largely insulated; ordinary traders lose $7.6M in two months.
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The world population is 8.3 billion, and the number of Gmail downloads is over 10 billion.
How is this even possible? 😭
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வீட்ல இருக்க weigh scale ஒன்னு காமிக்கிது, gym ல இருக்கது ஒன்னு காமிக்கிது
Taking the highest.
12 kgs away from the target weight.
Got access to the Perps beta on @Polymarket
Just tested a BTC position:
• Margin: $5
• Leverage: 4×
• Position Size: ~$20
• Market Order Fee: 0.0040 pUSD
Effective taker fee ≈ 0.02%.
That's lower than the standard taker fees on many major perp exchanges like @binance (~0.05%) and @HyperliquidX (~0.035%).
Early impression: fees are surprisingly competitive for a beta product. 👀
Polymarket cooking 👀🚀
Huge thanks to @devjoshstevens for giving early access to the Perps beta. 🙏
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@DankoWeb3 @PythNetwork They use chainlink and binance datas for btc not pyth
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I'd bet 90% of CT doesnt know this
Why polymarket shows the most accurate data that cant be manipulated?
2 reasons
1. The price doesnt come from one company
under the hood of every price based market on polymarket runs @PythNetwork
its not a single source
its the median of 75+ market makers publishing at once
jane street, jump, virtu, two sigma send their prices directly
none of them can fake a number because the other 74 publishers would override it
2. Resolution happens automatically
polymarket is plugged into pyth through websocket
the closing price is locked by code
What it means for you ?
> when you see a price on polymarket, its already an aggregated signal from 75+ tradfi market makers
> more accurate than coinbase chart, bloomberg, etc
> use it as a benchmark for other platforms
if polymarket prices a btc dump - get ready for the dump
this isnt just a betting market
its the most transparent price aggregator that exists
and if you want to learn how to actually use this data with the right indicators on 15-min up/down markets
article below
Danko@DankoWeb3
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My current @Polymarket stats:
- Total volume: $36k
- LP rewards: <$1
- Maker rewards: $1
- Total predictions: 3675
- Fees paid: $422
- PnL: +$825 (all-time)
- Weighted Volume: $18k
- Sponsored LP reward: $0
Next goal: Do compounding earning more + taker rewards for $POLY.
What’s your current status? Drop it below
aaddii (poor arc)@aaddii_eth
My current @Polymarket stats: - Total volume: $58k - LP rewards: <$1 - Maker rewards: $1+ - Total predictions: 120 - Fees paid: $75 - PnL: +$508 (all-time) - Weighted Volume: $10k - Sponsored LP reward: $4.20. Next goal: earning more lp reward + yield + taker rewards for $POLY. What’s your current status? Drop it below
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@devjoshstevens Would love to try the beta 👀
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Polymarket is excited to enter the perps space. We will be giving beta access to more people over the coming weeks. If you are interested in being part of the beta release, DM me.
Polymarket Traders@PolymarketTrade
Perps beta is now live on polymarket.com for select users. We’ll be rolling access out to more people over the next 4 weeks. Get ready.
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polymarket team has already hinted that weighted volume might be more important than you think
so i created a website to check your weighted volume
polyvolume.xyz
you can see there is a big difference between standard volume and weighted volume
btw i have also added some other features which can give you an edge for $poly
Mustafa Aljadery@mustafap0ly
Introducing taker tier rebate program - poly.market/taker-tier Get rebated up to 50% of all trading fees on polymarket, earn $ level up bonuses, and be eligible for large future rewards. Will be live starting next week 🙂
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I've paid $339 in @Polymarket fees 🔥
Congratulations, I played myself 🤡💀
Check your fee receipt: betmoar.fun/poly-fees/0xb7…
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lol, I predicted this earlier
I’ve been saying for a while now that Polymarket might take your spent fees into account for the airdrop
And now that the new tiered system for takers has been released, Polymarket is hinting that your spent fees will be taken into account
I’ve spent $72
how much have you spent?
Said@said116dao
not bad My trading PnL: -$350 But thanks to LP farming, my account's total PnL is +$68 I'm in the top 2% of LP farmers btw, has anyone considered that Polymarket might use the fees as a criterion for an airdrop, just like LayerZero did?
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Introducing taker tier rebate program - poly.market/taker-tier
Get rebated up to 50% of all trading fees on polymarket, earn $ level up bonuses, and be eligible for large future rewards.
Will be live starting next week 🙂
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@TheMaran Chatgpt business is low limits compare that plus i already try both 2 seats business and plus accounts
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how to claim chatgpt plus free by region
chatgpt is now offering free subscriptions or huge discounts (40% - 60%) in certain regions
us:
f6sus
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canada:
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brazil:
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mexico:
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australia:
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singapore:
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uk:
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germany:
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spain:
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france:
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italy:
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ireland:
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netherlands:
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india:
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new zealand:
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south africa:
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how to claim:
> go to: chatgpt.com/?promoCode=XYZ
- replace "xyz" with the cost based on your region
- if you are not in these regions you can buy a proxy in that region and claim the offer
- create a new chatgpt account
- claim the offer
- on the payment window try to pay with a card based on the region's code you have used if you used us based code use a us based card as a payment
> in many regions you need to pay for 1 seat but you will get 2 seats, that's like a 50% discount
> got these codes from chinese bros, they are cooking
> if none of the codes working wait for new tricks
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Backtest is only 70%.
Execution is the other 30%.
Most people flex insane backtest curves and ghost when it’s time to trade live.Not me.
Here’s the real May 1–15 proof (backtest vs live execution side-by-side);
Even with some natural “Miss” and “Mismatch” in live markets… the bot still executed at a level that turned $300 → $986 profit in the past 30 days.This is what 4 months of building an AI trading system looks like:
Who else is showing both backtest AND live results transparently? Drop your stats below 📷
#Polymarket #PredictnMarkets #AITrading #TradingWhy
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Polymarket Airdrop Valuation
It’s difficult to establish a valuation for an airdrop when we still don’t know the exact criteria, points system, etc.
But I’m 100% confident that the main metric will be volume, so I had several AI models analyze all available and known data, and the results were very interesting.
Since there are no visible points, the most likely structure is a tier-based model.
Estimated assumptions:
• Airdrop allocation: 5–10% (conservative scenarios)
• FDV: $10B–$20B
With these assumptions, the estimated rewards become very interesting.
For example:
• $1k–$10k lifetime volume could result in an airdrop between ~$150 (bear case) and ~$800 (bull case).
And tbh, there are many markets that are practically resolved where you can still buy the winning side at 99.8–99.9¢.
That’s basically:
• 0.1–0.2% profit
• Almost risk-free volume generation
That’s my trick to generate volume.
So… do you still think you’re late?
🔗polymarket.com/?r=TomCryptoDe…
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I'm giving away five $200 Max plans for @DevinAI
If you're using tools like Claude Code, Codex, or Cursor and haven't tried @DevinAI, comment below with what you're building to be eligible. ⚡️
ellis@DriscollEllis
all you nerds hyperventilating about your claude code config would be gobsmacked by the sophistication devin has had for months. cc is catching up but still relatively unserious
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