Vince McCambridge

3/ This has led to a 63% collapse in the flow of oil and its refined products from the Middle East. Exports are down from 7.4 million to 2.8 million barrels per day of oil, 39% of which is flowing via a pipeline to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports.

2/ Goldman reports that average daily flows of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 94% from their pre-war levels.

1/ Goldman Sachs analysts report that the biggest oil crisis in history is about to hit globally, with profound and highly destructive consequences. A new report asks ""Are We Running Out of Oil?", and concludes that the answer is yes. ⬇️

Trump’s Iran Ultimatum Has Boxed Him In The prospect of a negotiated agreement with Iran, at least under current conditions is close to nonexistent. In practical terms, talks are not even underway. And the terms that would make a deal possible from Tehran’s perspective are politically untenable in Washington: a halt to U.S. military pressure, credible guarantees against future attacks, tacit recognition of Iran’s position in key maritime chokepoints, and likely some form of compensation. This is precisely why the familiar “carrots and sticks” framework is unlikely to succeed. It assumes a willingness to trade concessions for relief. But Iran’s leadership today does not see itself under sufficient pressure to compromise. On the contrary, it views the current moment as one of strategic advantage. That reality raises a more troubling question: Is the president being presented with a clear-eyed assessment of Iran’s posture? The U.S. government has no shortage of seasoned Iran experts. Yet recent public statements suggest a persistent gap between Washington’s expectations and Tehran’s calculations. Mr. Trump’s ultimatum reflects that gap. By setting terms Iran is almost certain to reject, he has narrowed his own options to two unattractive paths. He can escalate, risking a sharp disruption to global energy markets and potentially severe damage to the international economy. Or he can step back without an agreement, a move that would hand Iran a narrative of resilience and erode the credibility of U.S. pressure. A third option, delaying the deadline under the pretense that progress is imminent may buy time. But it would come at the cost of further undermining U.S. credibility, both with adversaries and allies. There is, in short, no easy exit. And absent a fundamental reassessment of Iran’s strategic mindset, Washington risks making decisions based on a misreading of the other side, one that could prove far more costly than anticipated. #iran

🧵DC JURY POOL THREAD: DC students can't read. But they can convict. DC spends more per student than anywhere in America, $31,629/year. Most kids can't read at grade level. But DCPS found the time to make progressive activist training mandatory for every student, grades 6-12. Those students become DC jurors. Full receipts below. As always, patience as I pull together the thread. 👇

Dr. Patrick Moore: "I am firmly of the belief that the future will show that this whole hysteria over climate change was a complete fabrication."

Use Charlie Munger’s via negativa and apply it to Germany like I did long ago. You’ll be truly shocked. Now you’ll understand why I coined that Germany is the Jim Cramer index of geoeconomics - if you want to be on the safe side, just see what Germany does and do the opposite.

Even though this is from an older podcast, Jimmy Carr’s take still hits different: “The Roman Empire didn’t fall. It became the Church.” And the British Empire? According to Jimmy, it didn’t collapse either — it simply turned into a bank. We handed the colonies back with a polite “sorry about that,” then offered to “hold” all their money safely in the City of London. Roman Empire → Vatican British Empire → Global financial hub Empires don’t die. They just rebrand. Still one of the most provocatively entertaining history takes I’ve heard. What’s your favourite “history didn’t end, it just changed form” observation?

Once I had the opportunity to watch Apollo 13 with Glynn Lunney, the legendary (within NASA only, sadly) Flight Director who kept the crew alive during the first night after the explosion. There's a point at which the film has a someone explaining to journalists the difficulties of getting the calculations precisely right. Glynn, quietly: "Piece of cake."

Gavin Newsom -- "I played college baseball at Univ. of Santa Clara -- I was recruiting because my swing reminded the coaches of Will Clark, 1B for the SF Giants." Lie. Never played for Santa Clara. Enrolled in the fall of 1985. Will Clark made his MLB debut for the Giants in 1986. "One of the reasons for my divorce from Kimberly Guilfoyle was because she had taken a job with Fox News and that just didn't work as the First Lady of San Francisco." Guilfoyle took a job with Court TV in Jan. 2004, for which she moved to New York. Newsom won the Mayor's race 2 months earlier -- Nov. 2003. Sounds like a really solid marriage. They announced they were separated and filing for divorce in Jan. 2005 -- one year after she left. Their divorce was final Feb. 2006. Guilfoyle started working for Fox News as host of a weekend crime show "The Lineup" -- first appearance was Feb. 10, 2006. From 2004 to 2006 she had appeared as a legal analyst on CNN and ABC. Just another lie that rolls off his tongue like he can't separate reality from fiction in his life "story". "Narcissistic Personality Disorder" (NPD): This is an official diagnosis in the DSM-5. It is characterized by a pervasive pattern of grandiosity, a constant need for admiration, and a lack of empathy.

"David Pressman, a 14-year-old boy who 'loved baseball and also had a scientific bent', one night he left his wood bat outside. In the morning he thought the bat felt heavier and had 'less pop'. David took it to the post office, borrowed their scale and confirmed his hunch: Wood bats absorb moisture. David devised a method for drying his bat out over coal embers, and then he wrote a letter on his father’s stationary to tell the biggest baseball star in the world, Ted Williams, all about it. "Next thing you know my father got a call from Ted Williams. My dad said: ‘You might want my kid. He’s in school.’ When I got home, I got a call from Ted Williams. He said, ‘Can you come to Fenway?’” David went and explained to Ted the principle of restitution: 'In which both bat and ball compress and then expand at impact'. David told Ted to put his bats in the clubhouse clothes dryer and weigh them every 15 minutes until they quit losing weight. So Ted Williams, when sent an unsolicited letter from a fan promising to make him a better hitter, called the fan. And when he found out the fan was actually a 14-year-old boy who was unavailable because he was in school, Ted Williams called back. “The Kid” Ben Bradlee, Jr. David Pressman went on to graduate from Harvard. Ted Williams weighs one of his new 36-ounce Hickory baseball bats in the clubhouse.

This is accurate x.com/i/grok/share/c…

The Hill just posted my column on the possible need for a 28th amendment on citizenship after the Supreme Court rules in Trump v. Barbara. The combination of open borders and open-ended citizenship is an existential threat to this Republic...thehill.com/opinion/immigr…

German mathematician Bernhard Riemann posed a question so dangerous it still haunts us today. It is known as the Riemann Hypothesis.

When Pete Hegseth was nominated to be Secretary of Defense, anonymous sources attempted to taint his character by flooding the media. During my time at Fox News, I never heard a single negative remark about Hegseth or his drinking. I even went on the record and sent U.S. Senators a letter debunking the so-called anonymous sources. I put my name on it. It looks like these “anonymous sources” are coming back around. I still stand by my letter that I sent in 2024.

🔥 Peter Bence turning Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody into absolute classical piano FIRE! When a world-class concert pianist gets asked for the ultimate rock opera… this is what happens. Insane speed, perfect dynamics, and pure genius on the keys 🎹😎

It's quite literally a color revolution. The democracy playbook people like Norm Eisen or Gene Sharp don't like breaking it out into explicit stages because it implies that color revolutions aren't organic. So I had to assemble it from scratch using their own writings. Here are the steps, and they're trying to do Step 6:

They were no longer married when she went to work for Fox News.

They're all gunning for @DNIGabbard but she's not put a foot wrong and she has exposed more Deep State wrongdoing than anyone else in the administration. She is fearless and principled, so good luck, traitors.

That's a lie. It's not what happened. It's not how it ever could have happened. The nuclear deal was structured so that when it expired Iran would be able to build a nuclear weapons arsenal while being immune from American pressure. Trump's absolute minimum for a deal has always been that Iran can never have a nuclear weapons capability. The gap was unbridgeable. That's easy to see even at the broadest level. At that level, the Iran debate is divided into two issues: sanctions and nuclear. In the JCPOA, that meant - 1. Sanctions relief. The JCPOA required the US to lock up our most powerful sanctions, including and especially oil sanctions, which had been built against the full range of Iran's malign activities. Iran would get to reap hundreds of billions of dollars annually to build up its navy, missile arsenal, and terrorist proxies, in exchange for concessions just on nuclear issues. 2. Nuclear sunsets. Even those concessions were just temporary. The deal legalized Iran's nuclear program, eventually allowing it to enrich uranium in unlimited amounts to unlimited levels. According to Obama, after a decade under the deal, Iran's nuclear breakout time would shrink to almost zero. In Trump 45, US negotiators spent a year trying to get the Europeans to agree to a "Fix" that would have abolished sunsets and addressed Iran's malign activities. The Europeans said, correctly, that the sunsets were the whole point of the deal, and talks stalled. In Trump 47, US negotiators repeatedly offered the Iranians deals in which Iran's nuclear capabilities would be permanently curtailed. Each time, the Iranians came back with counteroffers that were only temporary, and so here we are.