Vinny Lingham

Thought for the day : Your character is hardened in struggle but only tested in success…

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@CalebFranzen Bottom September/October imho

Bitcoin is still below its 200-day MA cloud. It also has a 1-year return of -18%. Historically, both of those things are only true during bear markets... which means that we are likely in a bear market. And what do bear markets do? Typically, they produce lower lows.

@phil_hellmuth @JasonKoon Two goats in one photo - this will break X

Chillin (listening to a live band) w this guy… He is in heaven because it’s country music! Sounds pretty darn good to me as well! @JasonKoon #POSITIVITY

@KobeissiLetter Hey @LukeGromen thoughts?

BREAKING: Foreign holdings of US Treasuries surged +$200 billion in February, to a record $9.49 trillion. Of that total, $7.76 trillion, or 84%, consists of long-term Treasury securities, with the remainder held in short-term Treasury bills. Over the last 12 months, holdings have risen +$587 billion. Japan, the largest foreign holder, raised its stockpile by +$14 billion, to $1.24 trillion, the highest since February 2022. This marks Japan's 13th monthly purchase of the last 14 months, as Japanese institutions continue chasing higher yields overseas. The UK, the 2nd-largest holder, posted a +$17 billion increase, to $897 billion, the 2nd-highest on record. China, the 3rd-largest owner, trimmed its stockpile by -$1 billion, to $693 billion. Foreign demand for US debt remains strong.

@BTCBreadMan Wait until the next fork…

It is amusing how many people think that MSTR accumulating a shit ton of Bitcoin creates a “centralization issue”.

@PeterSchiff Don’t forget, if Saylor ever sells BTC at a profit, then STRC loses its ROC tax exemption…

$MSTR was initially able to fund its Bitcoin buying spree by selling shares at a premium. Now it's forced to issue preferred shares with an 11.5% yield. Since MSTR has no earnings, this obligation can only be satisfied by selling more preferreds, discounted common, or Bitcoin.

@R89Capital MSTR average price

Jfc how is $75k strong resistance

Let’s find out if we get a quantum fork or not for Bitcoin by asking the right person… 😉

@AlanaDLevin x.com/vinnylingham/s…

Hear me out > Strategy controls multiple percentage points of BTC > Strategy has outsized influence in which (eventual) BTC hard fork gets selected as the canonical chain > Strategy finds / selects a path that enables it to have a claim on (at least some) of Satoshi's coins > Profit

@HighfieldCap @zerohedge Macro overrules Bitcoin charts right now

@zerohedge not until @VinnyLingham says so

Bitcoin breaks out above the post-October high resistance. Retest of $90K next

@BigpictureBTC few.

@VinnyLingham Exactly, they either hyper-dilute common shares to keep the yield alive, or they sell BTC to pay it and instantly nuke the ROC tax loophole for preferred holders. Lose-lose.

Strategy (MSTR) Preferred Dividend Burn Math. The Bottom Line: At its current growth rate, Strategy will exhaust its $2.25B preferred dividend reserve in 9 to 10 months. If ATM issuance continues compounding at this pace, dividend obligations will hit nearly $700 Billion in 2.5 years. Even if the $MSTR share price skyrockets back to its previous all-time high of $543, the company would still have to dilute common shareholders by nearly 400% just to pay the preferred yields. Here is the exact math using official SEC filings and live corporate dashboards. 1/ The Starting Line Feb 5, 2026: Q4 Earnings 8-K announced a $2.25B USD Reserve (effective Feb 1) to fund "2.5 years" of preferred dividends. Today is April 13, 71 days later. 2/ STRC Variable Burn STRC obligations grow dynamically via ATM issuance. •Feb 1: $3.4B Notional at 11.25% yield = $1,047,945/day. •April 13: $6.357B Notional at 11.50% yield = $2,003,142/day. •71-Day Average Cost: $1,525,543/day. Total STRC burned: $108.31M. 3/ Fixed Preferred Burn Based on Form 424B5 and Q4 filings: •STRE: ~$716.8M USD notional at 10% = $196,383/day. •STRD: $292.4M notional at 10% = $80,109/day. •STRF: $202.6M notional at 10% = $55,506/day. •STRK: $50.0M notional at 8% = $10,958/day. Total Fixed Burn ($342,956/day * 71 days): $24.35M. 4/ Remaining Cash Reserve Starting Reserve: $2,250,000,000 Less STRC Burn: -$108,310,000 Less Fixed Burn: -$24,350,000 Current Reserve: $2,117,340,000 ($2.117B). 5/ Exponential Depletion STRC grew from $3.4B to $6.357B in 71 days (86.9% absolute growth). Compound Monthly Growth Rate (CMGR): (6.357 / 3.4) ^ (30 / 71) - 1 = 30.06% monthly compounding. If 30.06% growth continues, starting with today's $71.36M monthly burn and $2.117B reserve: •Month 1: $71.3M burn ($2.04B left) •Month 4: $144.5M burn ($1.69B left) •Month 7: $305.7M burn ($933M left) •Month 9-10: Reserve exhausted. 6/ Cost to Regain 2.5-Year Runway What is the cost to refill a 30-month reserve? •Static (Stop Issuance): 30 months requires $2.14B. With $2.117B left, the deficit is $23.8M. Requires issuing 183k common shares at $130. •Dynamic (30.06% Growth Continues): The sum of 30 months of compounding dividend obligations is $699.7B ($699.4B STRC + $0.3B Fixed). Deficit: $697.6 Billion. 7/ The Price Target Illusion Strategy bulls will argue that the share price will be much higher by then, making the dilution negligible. Let's run the math on raising that $697.6 Billion deficit against a current float of roughly 333 Million outstanding shares. Here is the exact dilution required to pay the 30-month dividend bill at higher price targets: •At $130/share: 5.36 Billion shares issued (1,609% dilution) •At $200/share: 3.48 Billion shares issued (1,045% dilution) •At $300/share: 2.32 Billion shares issued (696% dilution) •At $400/share: 1.74 Billion shares issued (522% dilution) •At $500/share: 1.39 Billion shares issued (417% dilution) •At $543/share (Previous ATH): 1.28 Billion shares issued (386% dilution) Conclusion: Even in a hyper-bull scenario where MSTR reclaims its previous ATH of $543 per share, maintaining this 30% monthly ATM growth rate requires nearly quadrupling the outstanding share count just to pay the preferred dividends. If ATM issuance halts, Bitcoin accumulation stops. If issuance continues, the math dictates hyper-dilution regardless of the stock price. Unless he starts selling their BTC in which case the narrative and model collapses… It seems a vast majority of MSTR shareholders don’t understand what they’re cheering for. From a common shareholders perspective, $STRC should not be viewed as Digital Credit, but rather Digital Kamikaze….

@coookwithchris @RykerClothing @wayvewear @oasishealthapp I wear Ryker shorts, but don't forget ednclothing.com - the vests are especially great for workouts.

Using natural fibers isn’t a fad, and it’s especially important when you’re working out/sweating Luckily there are great brands out there now like @RykerClothing and @wayvewear

@KenPaxtonTX That’s why I invested in ednclothing.com - chemical and microplastic free natural clothing! As it should be!

🚨BREAKING: I launched an investigation into Lululemon over the potential presence of toxic "forever chemicals" in activewear.

I wish more people understood this subtle but deep insight.

@ncsmokymtns @Mayhem4Markets I’d rather live in Zurich

@VinnyLingham @Mayhem4Markets I would choose the third option, suicide

Kamala Harris is teasing at a 2028 presidential run. Please. Do us all a favor. Just don't. You didn't know how to run a campaign in 2020. You fumbled even harder in 2024. You aren't presidential material. Go ghost write a book and sell out to the private sector.

@royebex 😂

@VinnyLingham @elonmusk Vinny if you continue to hold the controller like this you're not gonna win at Fortnite

Starlink provides an Internet connection in flight that is on par with ground Internet speed & latency