Vlad Andrei

@TMTLongShort Why not take tirze which is approved and tested, while reta is newer and not fully tested?

Advice for first time reta users

/goal is the best command in Codex, Claude Code, and Hermes right now. And most are using it wrong. They write "make no mistakes". And pray. Here's how to structure yours for a mission, to rank your uncertainties before acting, to kill scope creep, and to close every loop other prompts leave open. /goal prompt [structure below] GOAL: CONTEXT: CONSTRAINTS: PRIORITY: (optional) 1. 2. 3. PLAN: DONE WHEN: VERIFY: OUTPUT: STOP RULES:

@oost_marcel You missed the biggest one, @tether

The world’s top 10 neobanks are worth over $250 BILLION 🤯 And the leaderboard is more global than you might expect: From the top: • 🇬🇧 Revolut — $75B • 🇧🇷 Nubank — $73B • 🇨🇳 WeBank — $32B • 🇺🇸 SoFi — $22B • 🇮🇳 Jio Financial — $16B • 🇯🇵 PayPay — $14B • 🇬🇧 Wise — $13B • 🇺🇸 Chime — $8B • 🇰🇷 Kakaobank — $8B • 🇮🇳 Paytm — $7B A highly fragmented landscape… Spanning 7 countries — with Europe, the US, Asia, and LatAm all in the mix. 📷 Source: Multiples.vc Which of these do you think will break away from the pack? And who’s the next neobank to enter this top 10?

@heygurisingh True, but we're in mid 2026 😀

@geoffwoo I wonder if top startups would rather have Mythos or other top VCs on their cap table

every vc firm claiming they have proprietary deal flow is about to get bodied by spud or mythos sourcing better companies in 30 seconds

@d_1awrence They can short term refinance it, and in 1-2yr roll it to longer dated

The US has $9.6T of debt to refinance in 2026. Before the war in Iran the plan seemed to be to drive rates down as close to zero as possible so they can refinance it at lower rates. Remember that a large proportion of that debt was taken out with rates close to zero. The war has changed everything. Instead of multiple rate cuts, there's more chance of no cuts, or even rate hikes. Not only are they now printing billions every day to fund a war they didn't expect, at higher interest rates, but they're going to have to refinance $9.6T at those higher rates too. The implications of this are significant. Their debt levels will accelerate, their deficits will significantly increase & the USD will lose a huge amount of purchasing power. Buy Bitcoin. Own Assets.

@NoLimitGains Investors are redeeming from private credit funds to buy similar BDCs at 15-20% discount. It's an arb trade.

@FinanceLancelot Options are contingent assets and they get carried onto the assets side of the balance sheet. Just because something is contingent doesn't mean it's not an asset.

So insurance companies & pension funds have invested in private equity & credit companies through the Cayman Islands, and they're currently 35x levered on their obligations... Did I hear that correctly? When private credit blows up this is going to be worse than 2008.

@capexbt How are you shorting this more specifically?

I just opened the biggest short of my life. Dubai real estate. Everyone who paid $2M for a one bedroom studio next to a missile interception zone is about to learn what a bag holder feels like. This isn’t a trade. This is generational wealth being handed to anyone paying attention right now. 12 months. Screenshot this.

@zerohedge Of course we’re gonna “partner” with you before we get rid of you.

"After watching Anthropic's Enterprise Agents briefing event, we have even greater conviction that model providers are unlikely to displace software incumbents and are instead positioning themselves and their agents to be an orchestration layer on top of existing and incumbent systems" - Deutsche Bank

@debt_serious All the FUD was self inflicted from the OBDC II merger. All their investments are sound, no clues of losses.

Reading $OWL annual report. It is much more impressive company than I thought it is. Anyone who saw it as a Lehman moment is crazy

@JulianKlymochko It feels like SVB vibes. Banks' lobbying against PC is definitely strong.

Anyone remember when Blue Owl merged its other non-perpetual BDC with $OBDC last year and no one cared? Now there's numerous hit pieces, and even an Elizabeth Warren slam (!), any time a private credit fund has a liquidity event. I guess timing is everything...

@DonutShorts That's PE not PC

Private Credit: Still well contained

@JulianKlymochko So true. This whole FUD against private credit is actually an opportunity to buy at 20%+ discount. (Such as OBDC). Few.

Yesterday, people were saying that all software private credit loans are worth $0. Now, after were monetized at par, the bears are doing spreadsheet jiu-jitsu to justify why it's a bad deal. The cognitive dissonance is stunning. Update your priors.

@ai It can write good code quickly, which means it can solve a ton of problems.

The "self-improving" agent is currently a myth. SkillsBench ran 7300+ trials across 86 diverse tasks (coding to healthcare) to see if agents can write their own tools. Human-coded skills boost performance by 16%, while AI-generated skills yield a 0% gain. Practically, the "overhang" is a myth. Your agent is only as smart as the tools humans build for it.

@TMTLongShort @FilterMacro How will it be locked down? Every query could be malicious, how could they tell?

@FilterMacro I’m well aware. The will converge until closed source fully lockdown later this year and the diverge with a lag. Said so before.

Models will be locked down. Open source will fall behind. As long as you believe in scaling laws this is a certainty until Huawei can scale compute.

@JackFarley96 PE will get ruined much sooner than PC. Most direct lending PC deals have a PE sponsor. Also, PC is much better diversified than PE (software is 10-20% of portfolio).

The VCs have Anthropic and OpenAI and SpaceX at least. Private Equity has a lot of legacy software businesses that are very levered. Some PE shops are 100% software Private credit, too, is impacted, some PC loans are to software businesses. Obviously senior in capital stack Sell-off in credit seems a bit extreme to me so far (especially in BDCs) but what do I know.

If software really is going to be disrupted by AI then the SaaS companies in private portfolios - Private Equity AND Venture Capital both being "Bagholders" - are going to be some of the Heaviest Bags imaginable

@HedgieMarkets If PC is in trouble, how about the PE funds sponsoring those same deals? Also PE funds have much lower diversification compared to a PC fund.

🦔 Private credit stocks plunged Tuesday on fears about exposure to software companies being disrupted by AI. Blue Owl, TPG, Ares Management, and KKR were all down double digits. Apollo fell 7%. BlackRock shed 5%. The iShares Software ETF is down 20% this year. UBS estimates 25% to 35% of private credit portfolios are exposed to AI disruption risk. By comparison, the high yield corporate bond market has only 8% technology exposure. UBS says default rates could rise to 13% for private credit if AI triggers significant disruption, versus 4% for high yield. Blue Owl's software-focused private credit fund saw redemptions of about 15% of assets in late 2025. My Take Private equity loaded up on software acquisitions in 2021 and 2022 at peak valuations, right before rates rose and AI started threatening the entire sector. These deals got funded by private credit because traditional banks couldn't move the paper. Now those lenders own a concentrated book of software loans bought at the top, facing an existential threat from the same AI boom everyone else is chasing. The assets backing these loans are mostly intangible. Skills, licenses, intellectual property. If a company goes bust, there's nothing to seize and sell. Vista Equity Partners built an "agentic factory" last summer to bolt AI onto all its portfolio companies, trying to outrun obsolescence. That's the play now. Race to add AI before AI makes you irrelevant. Warren Buffett once said when the auto industry took off, the smart move was to short horses. Nobody knows who wins the AI race, but a lot of enterprise software is starting to look like horses. The private credit firms holding this paper are watching the collateral evaporate in real time. Hedgie🤗

@carrynointerest The Blue Owl BDC has about 7% PIK. Is that huge?

THE BUBBLE IN SOFTWARE PRIVATE EQUITY (PRIVATE CREDIT EDITION): I posted this roughly a year ago. Given what's happened in the last year, YA'LL NEED TO READ IT AGAIN. I deep dove a ton of lending data and discovered some hilarious stuff. For a while, there have been rumors that a bubble is forming in private credit related to private equity. I'm not sure about that, but I am somewhat certain about a mini bubble forming in software private equity / private credit. LET'S RIP IT. Is there a bigger sign of late stage software than this? It is widely known (imo) that software private equity and strategic acquirers got a bit...aggressive...in 2020/2021. Software M&A hit all time highs on both valuation and cash deployed in 2020/2021: Why does that matter CNI? Who cares? What many of you may or may not know is that the way that lending works in software private equity is kind of f***ing hilarious. Many of the higher growth software companies. Because most of these software companies didn't have very much EBITDA relative to their growth, and according to the data they were acquired at 9.1x(!!!) ARR, PE funds and lenders had to get CREATIVE. Many of these software acquisitions were structured with PIK debt. What's PIK debt? PIK (Payment-in-Kind) debt in private equity and acquisitions allows interest payments to accrue and capitalize onto the loan balance instead of being paid in cash, enabling companies to preserve cash flow during the investment period. You might ask, "Wait...that sounds deranged. Wouldn't the borrower have a massive lump sum due at some point in the future?" The answer: YES. Borrowers eventually have to a pay a larger lump sum as the unpaid interest accrus and compounds. As a pro to the borrower, this allows them to conserve a chunk of cash but creates a PRETTY LARGE obligation at maturity. Why would you do this? BECAUSE I'M FLIPPING THE COMPANY! I'm going to sell the company BEFORE the pik debt reaches maturity and buy another golf stream PJ (I assume they were thinking). I started this thought by saying there might be a bubble. For that to be true, we would have to have lenders taking the other side of acquisitions at a massive rate...WELL I GOT THE DATA. I pulled a ton of data on BDCs. A BDC (Business Development Company) is a type of publicly traded investment fund that provides financing to small and mid-sized businesses, often including PIK debt. While I can't speculate on what private credit funds are doing, I can certainly use this data to figure out: 1) Was there insane lending 2) Does it all come to fruition at some point in the future. 3) Is revenue slowing / M&A volume declining so much that software pe funds won't be able to FLIP the company before the PIK reaper comes for them I munged the data...and check out this graph: We have almost 20 BILLION DOLLARS in software related loans coming due JUST in 2029. Keep in mind: this is only what we KNOW about and the BDCs are HOLDING. The BDCs sell a ton of this debt to syndicators who lump them into CLOs (classic 2008 vibes) and the risk is 'diversified' away. I won't speculate on that. Now CNI, you told us to be worried about the PIK debt. Can you filter for that? I CAN! Good GOD is 2028 insane. We have almost 5b in PIK debt maturing just in 2028. Your next thought might be 'Well CNI, this is a nothing burger. The only way this would be a real problem for software Pe would be if: 1) Revenue growth was slowing across most of software 2) M&A volumes dried up If those both happen, the software PE funds can't sell the company, the PIK debt comes due, and BAM foreclosure. Well, luckily I have data from Carlsquare (a top software inv bank) on revenue growth across their mandates and...oof. Sooo...what does this all tangibly mean? Like what's the conclusion? 1) Software PE funds got extremely aggressive in 2020/2021 2) They used aggressive debt structures assuming they'd be able to sell the businesses before the PIK comes 3) A ton of that debt matures in 2028/2029 4) Software Revenue is slowing (especially from 2021 highs) 5) Software M&A has fallen dramatically (less exit liquidity) There are a few different outcomes: 1) M&A rebounds. YOLO time. Software PE funds sell all their businesses before 2028/2029. Everyone's rich. Hooray. 2) M&A doesn't rebound. All these BDCs / CLOs are caught bag holding shitty software companies that can't refinance. Software companies declare bankruptcy and/or Blue Owl / BDCs own a ton of software companies...write off debt...chaos ensues. Software PE permanently altered. 3) Software PE funds are able to refi all this debt even if M&A doesn't rebound and the game of musical chairs continues We have ALREADY started to see this happen. Feel free to search 'software private equity company bankruptcy' and peruse the results. The pik structure is a KNIFE FIGHT if exit liquidity (via M&A / IPO) dries up. No matter what happens...the next 4 years of software private equity are going to be insane.

@jdorman81 Great insight

No different than how Archegos Capital caused a bunch of non-correlated stocks to suddenly become correlated. Wrote this in June 2021... the correlation of the buyer base is always more important than the assets themselves ar.ca/blog/crypto-ma…