wales retweetledi
and we are still in beta without an in-house marketing person
flashcaster@flashcaster
flashcast(.)social got some serious traction already after it got published.
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wales
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wales
@wales_creative
Little drops of water, little grains of sand. Makes the mighty ocean and the pleasant lands
Everywhere in the world Katılım Eylül 2024
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@vanishree_rao prediction markets will resolve this the same way early equity markets did, not through law, but through reputational feedback loops that eventually calcify into norms.
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wales retweetledi
credit for owning it. and for not hiding behind "Ryan Gosling" on Polymarket.
this episode matters beyond one team's disclosure though. every incident like this will set the normative floor for prediction markets over the next decade.
here's my actual take: there will be no meaningful regulation of insider trading in prediction markets. jurisdictions are fragmented, legal definitions don't map cleanly, and the market is too small for regulators to burn political capital on. don't hold your breath for a Polymarket SEC equivalent.
what will emerge instead is reputation-based calibration. the community collectively pricing your credibility based on how you behave in moments of information asymmetry. that's a more powerful enforcement mechanism than any regulator anyway.
the core tension is genuinely hard though. when you can influence an outcome you've bet on, the line between conviction and manipulation gets blurry fast. one verbal commitment from Multicoin isn't a done deal, but it's not 50/50 uncertainty either. reasonable people will disagree on where exactly that line sits, and that ambiguity is precisely why informal norms matter more than rules here.
prediction markets will resolve this the same way early equity markets did, not through law, but through reputational feedback loops that eventually calcify into norms. P2P Team just became a case study in what that process looks like in real time. how they're received over the next few months will say a lot about how mature this ecosystem actually is.
P2P.me (TGE arc)@P2Pdotme
A note on the Polymarket positions you've seen on-chain - the account named "P2P Team" is ours. We wanted to come out honestly. The capital came from our foundation account and all proceeds return to it. Here's the full picture. 10 days before our raise went live, we placed bets that we'd hit our $6M+ target. At that point we had one oral commitment from Multicoin ($3M) - no signed term sheets, no guaranteed allocations, nothing binding. We were betting on ourselves. We'd told the market we were raising over $6M. We believed we could. That bet was our way of backing our word with our own money at a moment when the outcome was genuinely uncertain. Over the following 10 days we made our case, secured commitments, and the raise closed at $5.2M - entirely from outside investors we don't control. We understand why this raises questions. Trading on an outcome you can influence erodes trust. We don't believe we were trading on a done deal, but we recognize reasonable people can see it differently. We named the account "P2P Team" deliberately - to give a marketing signal of our presence to the community and reflect our intent to be transparent. But intent isn't the same as action. Not disclosing at the time was a mistake we own. We took time to study the legal implications before speaking, which is why we stayed silent until now with a "No Comments" stance! - that too is a fair criticism. All proceeds go back into our futarchy-governed MetaDAO treasury. We will be liquidating all positions in the next few hours and are putting together a formal company policy on prediction market trading going forward. One thing we want to be unambiguous about: MetaDAO (@MetaDAOProject ) had zero knowledge of or involvement in these bets. We're genuinely excited to join this community and wanted to start on the right note - which means being straight with you about this.
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wales retweetledi
guys we have never shipped like this
there is a new, more energetic and soulful life in Fermah
not sure what happened but boy we are crushing this
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wales retweetledi
ok i want to create a bunch of videos on various topics in prediction markets. what topics would be interesting you think?
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Equities are now active capital.
Supply them. Lend them. Borrow against them. Earn on them.
Ownership is no longer the end state.
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@vanishree_rao @flashcaster Welldone team..
We seeing your hard work
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wales retweetledi
man, the team is inspiring me
they are fixing a ton of bugs, adding features, i am dizzied at their speed
@flashcaster is sending daily dev changelog in his own style
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@fermah_xyz @FlashcastSocial Fermah is changing the narrative already
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one of our flagship apps just went live.
@FlashcastSocial beta is live today. 15 hand-picked Architects are in - testing the core, breaking things, building something that takes prediction markets from 1.0 to 2.0.
this is what we build infrastructure for.
moments like this one.
watch what comes next.
flashcast . social
@flashcastsocial@FlashcastSocial
TODAY. IS. THE. DAY. Flashcast Social beta is LIVE. we were dreaming about this Monday for a long time. Wave 1 Architects are in. right now. as you read this, 15 people are creating markets, placing bets, collecting points, and climbing the leaderboard. we promise, the industry will never look the same. this is the moment prediction markets stop being complicated, slow, and gatekept. and, finally, start being instant, social, and yours. so what's the focus of Wave 1? to test the core functionalities. creating a market, betting on it, checking resolution, collecting karmas, climbing the leaderboard. to keep it focused, this is only on the web app - no testing twitter integration yet. we want every piece of feedback on what's in front of them before we open the rest. to our 15 Architects - you know who you are. the wall has your name on it. forever. to everyone watching - stay close and watch. this is only the beginning. flashcast · social
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wales retweetledi
TODAY. IS. THE. DAY.
Flashcast Social beta is LIVE. we were dreaming about this Monday for a long time.
Wave 1 Architects are in. right now. as you read this, 15 people
are creating markets, placing bets, collecting points, and climbing
the leaderboard. we promise, the industry will never look the same.
this is the moment prediction markets stop being complicated,
slow, and gatekept. and, finally, start being instant, social, and yours.
so what's the focus of Wave 1? to test the core functionalities. creating a market, betting on it, checking resolution, collecting karmas, climbing the leaderboard. to keep it focused, this is only on the web app - no testing twitter integration yet. we want every piece of
feedback on what's in front of them before we open the rest.
to our 15 Architects - you know who you are.
the wall has your name on it. forever.
to everyone watching - stay close and watch.
this is only the beginning.
flashcast · social
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wales retweetledi
monday mornings hit different when you've been waiting for one this long.
beta is live. 15 people are in right now breaking everything we built.
and honestly? i hope they break all of it.
that's the whole point of this week. find every crack.
fix every crack. ship the vision.
let's go
GIF
@flashcastsocial@FlashcastSocial
TODAY. IS. THE. DAY. Flashcast Social beta is LIVE. we were dreaming about this Monday for a long time. Wave 1 Architects are in. right now. as you read this, 15 people are creating markets, placing bets, collecting points, and climbing the leaderboard. we promise, the industry will never look the same. this is the moment prediction markets stop being complicated, slow, and gatekept. and, finally, start being instant, social, and yours. so what's the focus of Wave 1? to test the core functionalities. creating a market, betting on it, checking resolution, collecting karmas, climbing the leaderboard. to keep it focused, this is only on the web app - no testing twitter integration yet. we want every piece of feedback on what's in front of them before we open the rest. to our 15 Architects - you know who you are. the wall has your name on it. forever. to everyone watching - stay close and watch. this is only the beginning. flashcast · social
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many of everyone’s tweets could just have been markets
GIF
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wales retweetledi
wales retweetledi
this is universal:
there is an innate need for humans to have an opinion on topics we care
there is an innate need for humans to tell people their opinion
there is an innate need for humans to feel validated
flashcast . social
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wales retweetledi
this is so true
intelligence is rarely a superpower - it's powerful, but it's a superpower only when it's off the charts
what i have realized is the core thing that is helping me and Fermah is utmost resilience and steadfast focus on upsides while ruthless minimizing downsides
Kyros@IamKyros69
Jensen Huang: My superpower is not my intelligence, it's my ability to deal with pain and suffering
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wales retweetledi
wales retweetledi