Will Chen

I have been screaming about this for MONTHS and Blind Squirrel just put out the best breakdown I have seen yet on the mechanics of why the SpaceX IPO could destabilize the entire market. The numbers are RIDICULOUS: $86 billion in stock to place at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Even under the most generous assumptions about index demand, closet benchmarkers, and retail participation, the bankers are STILL short roughly 40 to 50% of the demand needed just to get the deal to 1x covered. And once passive funds are forced to mechanically buy in, they have to SELL $44 billion of existing holdings to make room. In a market where top of book liquidity has already collapsed, that selling could feel like a trillion dollars of price impact. Your 401(k) is the exit liquidity for insiders who bought in at less than 5% of the current valuation. Read this and share it with everyone you know: open.substack.com/pub/arcadianow…

@pelositracker america's adversary must be wishing he wins a third term.

The Trump FDA story is crazy Big Tobacco donated $5,000,000 to Trump's super PAC Two days later, Reynolds American's executives met with Trump at his Florida golf club to demand the FDA reverse its flavored vape ban Trump then personally called RFK Jr. and his health secretary to complain about the ban Then questioned the FDA commissioner directly for not moving fast enough The FDA commissioner who said no resigned days later and so did RFK Jr.'s chief spokesperson, citing the vape policy as the reason Then the ban was lifted within a week The White House says it had nothing to do with the $5,000,000

They changed the entire rules of the stock market specifically for Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO... This is what they aren't telling you... and how it could cause the greatest collapse we've ever seen.

My favorite section (besides free cash flow) of the SpaceX S-1... There's a HUNDRED YEARS worth of scamming potential here, lol! $SPCX

@antibearthesis All these same tweets parroting the same WRONG information, with zero basic understanding of options values and limitation of form 13F disclosure. Today is the day tweeterdom reveal who these parrots are.

A 24-year-old ex-OpenAI researcher just turned $225M into over $13.67B in under 2 years. And his portfolio just revealed something even more extreme than his returns. Leopold Aschenbrenner was fired from OpenAI in April 2024. After that, he wrote a 165-page thesis predicting AGI by ~2027. Then he launched a fund and did something unusual: He fully positioned around that thesis. He initially avoided the obvious AI winners: Zero $NVDA Zero $MSFT Zero $GOOGL Zero $AMZN Instead, he targeted what AI physically runs on. His early “AI infrastructure” longs included: • Bloom Energy $BE • Lumentum $LITE • SanDisk $SNDK • CoreWeave $CRWV • Iris Energy $IREN The thesis was simple: AI isn’t just software. It’s constrained by: • power • bandwidth • storage • compute infrastructure And those bottlenecks were massively mispriced. The results were explosive: • Bloom Energy: +1,422% • Lumentum: +1,331% • SanDisk: +3,130% • IREN: +583% • CoreWeave: +166% This is what turned his initial $225M into ~ $5.5B by end of Q4 2025. Fast forward to his latest SEC filing (Q1 2026): His disclosed exposure has surged to $13.67B equivalent across 42 positions. A near 3x jump in a single quarter. But the structure of the portfolio changed dramatically. He didn’t just stay long AI infrastructure. He built a two-sided portfolio; Massive bearish positioning on semiconductors (puts totaling ~$7.46B): • $SMH ETF PUT: $2.04B • $NVDA PUT: $1.57B • $AVGO PUT: $1.01B • $AMD PUT: $969M • $MU PUT: $583M • $TSM PUT: $535M • $ASML PUT: $494M • $ORCL PUT: $1.07B • $INTC PUT: $159M At the same time, he STILL holds long exposure to the AI infrastructure stack: • $BE : $878M • $SNDK: $724M • $CRWV: $556M • $IREN: $401M • $CORZ: $389M • $APLD: $320M • $RIOT: $142M • $CLSK: $104M • $SEI: $62M • $TE: $43M • $KEEL: $38M • $BTDR: $29M • $PSIX: $26M • $WYFI: $20M • $BW: $19M • $SHAZ: $18M • $PUMP: $13M • $HIVE.NE: $6M He also added CALL OPTIONS on select names: • $MU CALL: $422M • $SNDK CALL: $388M • $TSM CALL: $354M • $CRWV CALL: $140M • $BE CALL: $55M So the positioning is not a simple “AI is over” trade. It’s more specific: He still believes AI infrastructure expands aggressively… …but thinks semiconductor leaders may have pulled forward too much optimism. In other words: He is long the physical buildout of AI and short the market’s most crowded AI expectations at the same time. From $225M → $5.5B → $13.67B… The real signal isn’t just performance. It’s that his view of AI has evolved from: “AI wins” to “the winners of AI may not be who the market thinks.” Are you going to ignore him again?

@demian_ai All these same tweets parroting the same WRONG information, with zero basic understanding of options values and limitation of form 13F disclosure. Today is the day tweeterdom reveal who these parrots are.

> be Leopold > german kid, both parents doctors > parents meet because the wall comes down > enroll Columbia at 15, valedictorian at 19 > write an existential-risk paper as a teenager > Tyler Cowen sees it, sends you a check > Oxford Global Priorities Institute > econ growth research before you can legally drink stateside > SBF Future Fund (pre-rug) > meet your fiancée there > she becomes chief of staff to Dario Amodei > her: Anthropic you: OpenAI > dinner_table_NDA.txt > join Superalignment with Ilya > write memo to the board: China will steal the weights > get fired sixty days later > they call it a leak you call it retaliation lol > 2 months later drop a 165-page essay > "AGI by 2027" > "trillion dollar clusters" > "beat China or get cooked" > ivanka_quote_tweets_it.png > a few hundred people in SF actually get it > you are one of them > raise from the Collison brothers, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross > open Situational Awareness LP > CIO at 22 > not buying NVDA buying the electricity that powers god > bloom_energy.csv > the optics nobody charts > bitcoin miners pivoting to AI hosting > $225M to $5B in twelve months > 13F drops this morning > $13.67B disclosed, 42 positions > $7.46B in fresh puts on every semi on earth > $SMH $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $ORCL $MU $TSM $ASML $INTC > the timeline loses its mind > "Leopold called the top" > retail copy-trades the PDF > semis open red > notional is not delta > a 5-delta crash put prints at full face value > outright shorts do not print at all > the filing is from March 31 > today is May 19 > seven weeks of trading you cannot see > calendar you cannot delay audience you cannot deny > file_the_truth.zip > trade_the_reaction.exe > meanwhile semis are half the S&P's year > Koreans maxing margin into chips at 60 > the marginal NVIDIA buyer is a retired dentist in Busan > already the AI prophet hedge fund chad > the_engagement_ring_is_an_H100.gif

@cryptopunk7213 All these same tweets parroting the same WRONG information, with zero basic understanding of options values and limitation of form 13F disclosure. Today is the day tweeterdom reveal who these parrots are.

leopold aschenbrenner just released his fund's latest investment portfolio & honestly its not what i expected he's gone massively short the entire semiconductor supply chain but also revealed what he thinks the next AI constraint is: > biggest surprise: he's short intel. he sold out of his massive Intel position that made him famous. > he's also gone short $9B worth of puts in nvidia, asml, amd, oracle and van ecks semi etf. > biggest long positions are in memory (sandisk) and power (bloom) with a combined $3.5B value (these are his next bottlenecks) > he trimmed ~$1B of bloom energy position but still holds $1 billion of it. his single largest long holding. > his lumentum position is gone (bearish optics?) > the one consistent thesis is he continues to hold data center bets (ai labs will still need gpus) > fund is now worth $13.7 billion (notional). it was just $5.5B 3 months ago and $220 million ~1yr ago

@BullTheoryio WRONG ! 1) $7.5 bn is NOTIONAL value, not market value. 2) 13F only disclose LONG option positions, but not the short options legs. These could potentially be bullish option spreads. No one knows. 3) OTC options aren't required to be disclosed on 13F. -drawing wrong conclusions!

🚨 LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER IS OFFICIALLY BETTING BILLIONS THAT THE AI HARDWARE BOOM HAS PEAKED. The exOpenAI researcher who was fired for warning that China could steal their AI models then turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months just filed his Q1 2026 13F with the SEC. One quarter ago he had $5.5 billion in disclosed equity exposure. As of March 31, 2026 that number is $13.67 billion. The portfolio nearly tripled in a single quarter across 42 positions. He initiated $7.46 billion in put options against every major semiconductor company between January 1 and March 31, 2026. None of these positions existed in his Q4 2025 filing. - SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF PUT: $2.04 billion - Nvidia PUT: $1.57 billion - Oracle PUT: $1.07 billion - Broadcom PUT: $1.01 billion - AMD PUT: $969 million - Micron PUT: $583 million - Taiwan Semiconductor PUT: $535 million - ASML PUT: $494 million - Intel PUT: $159 million For the past 18 months Aschenbrenner was betting only on electricity, memory, compute, and physical data center infrastructure. That made him one of the best performing fund managers in the world. And his long stock book still reflects that exact same thesis. - Bloom Energy: $878 million - SanDisk: $724 million - CoreWeave: $556 million - IREN: $401 million - Core Scientific: $389 million - Applied Digital: $320 million - Riot Platforms: $142 million - CleanSpark: $104 million - Solaris Energy: $62 million - T1 Energy: $43 million - Bitfarms: $38 million - Bitdeer: $29 million - Power Solutions: $26 million - WhiteFiber: $20 million - Babcock and Wilcox: $19 million - SharonAI: $18 million - ProPetro: $13 million - Hive Digital: $6 million He is also running call options on specific names at the same time as his puts, which means he is not simply betting against semiconductors everywhere. - Micron CALL: $422 million - SanDisk CALL: $388 million - Taiwan Semiconductor CALL: $354 million - CoreWeave CALL: $140 million - Bloom Energy CALL: $55 million This means he believes the companies supplying power, storage, and compute to the AI industry still have years of growth ahead of them. But the chip companies that Wall Street has been buying for the past two years at record valuations have already priced in everything good that is going to happen to them. The man who has been right about every major AI trade for the past 18 months is now betting that the biggest names in semiconductors are about to fall. If his track record means anything, the chip stocks Wall Street has been buying for the past two years may be in serious trouble.

Silicon Valley loves a tight timeline, but venture capital hype is about to slam face-first into the brutal, unyielding physics of hardware manufacturing. Chamath Palihapitiya’s claim that Taiwan will lose its strategic importance in 18 months because the U.S. is "1-2 nanometers away" from matching its capabilities is a mathematical and physical impossibility. It ignores the real-world timelines of semiconductor construction. According to data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and Boston Consulting Group, it takes an average of 38 months just to physically build, clean, and qualify a cutting-edge fabrication plant in the United States—twice as long as the 19 months it takes in Taiwan. You cannot out-innovate a timeline when the concrete hasn't even finished curing. Even with the massive tailwinds of the CHIPS Act fueling a 203% increase in U.S. domestic manufacturing capacity by 2032, the global chip pie is expanding too fast for the U.S. to achieve autonomy anytime soon. The global semiconductor market is scaling past $1.29 trillion, driven by an unprecedented surge in AI infrastructure. Long-term projections show that by the early 2030s, the U.S. will successfully capture 28% of global advanced (sub-10nm) chip capacity. That is a massive achievement for national security, but it still leaves Taiwan commanding over 50% of the world's leading-edge supply. Believing Taiwan becomes irrelevant in 18 months assumes American factories can achieve in a year and a half what the laws of macroeconomics say will take a decade. The narrative that precision automation like Neuralink can bridge this gap fundamentally misjudges the staggering complexity of a wafer fab. A surgical robot operating on a millimeter scale is a marvel, but it is entirely distinct from an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine blasting a laser at 50,000 drops of molten tin per second to etch features at an atomic scale. Furthermore, Taiwan legally protects its "Silicon Shield" through a strict N-1 rule, mandating that its absolute newest, most advanced nodes stay on the island. As TSMC’s Arizona plant scales its 4nm and 3nm lines, facilities in Taiwan are already mass-producing 2nm chips and building out sub-2nm nodes. The U.S. isn't replacing Taiwan; it is building a vital secondary buffer while Taiwan remains the primary cradle for the world's most advanced computing power. #Taiwan #Semiconductors #TSMC #CHIPSAct #TechWar #Geopolitics #UnveiledChina #AIInfrastructure

stop loss explained

Taiwan will remain critical for advanced semiconductors for at least another decade — not 12-18 months. Chamath is a sharp investor, but this feels like applying SaaS-style thinking (build once, scale infinitely at near-zero marginal cost) to the harsh realities of chip manufacturing. The physical world doesn’t work that way: -Leading-edge fab construction takes 2-3 years. -Equipment installation, process qualification, and reaching high yields in volume production adds at least another year. -Key tools like EUV machines have 12-16 month lead times. Taiwan/TSMC and its ecosystem still produce the vast majority of the world’s most advanced logic chips. The CHIPS Act is helping the US ramp up, but even optimistic projections show America reaching only around 14% of global advanced capacity by 2032. Just Look at Intel’s struggles. The painful reality behind its 5-Nodes-In-4-Years plan is showpiece process nodes. It’s not even winning 3nm customers away from TSMC, despite explosive AI chip demand. TSMC is expanding 3nm capacity (not even the most advanced node) - as fast as it can. There’s a mountain of money chasing 3nm capacity right now — yet none of it can be served by US production today. "Being “close” on a new process node in the lab is nowhere near “ready” for commercial manufacturing. TSMC’s Arizona plants are important (1st fab in production, 2nd coming), but they represent a small share of total capacity, come with higher costs, and still rely heavily on Taiwanese expertise. And it’s not just the fabs. Taiwan dominates the full supply chain — specialty chemicals, substrates, advanced packaging, talent clusters, infrastructure, and fab know-how built over decades. Replicating this elsewhere is extremely difficult. Bottom line: Smart “friendshoring” (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, EU) plus building redundancy, makes sense. US investments are good long-term insurance, but they complement Taiwan’s capabilities, they do not replace them anytime soon. Its 'Silicon Shield' remains very much in place.

@RickSanchezTV I'm taiwanese, let me translate it for you: Xi on (Taiwan question): "FA?, you will FO".

Did you hear President Xi warning Trump about falling into the “Thucydides Trap”? Let me explain. China is negotiating from a position of absolute strength— and for once, Trump is facing a rival power that refuses to bend on tariffs, sanctions, Iran, or Taiwan. Xi’s message is clear: the era of uncontested American dominance is ending — and the US cannot afford a direct confrontation with Beijing over Taiwan.

Since @elonmusk is in China 🇨🇳, he should visit his cousin Yilong Ma!

@APompliano "everyone is underestimating...blah blah". did you just climb out of a cave ?

The bull market in stocks is only beginning. Everyone is underestimating how big the shortage of compute and power exists. The bears are wrong. The bulls are going to make money. Choose wisely.

@AsiaCritic 長 那副豬臉, 也是ㄧ輩子的....

海外华人之间真的应该彼此友善一点。这个人在蒙特利尔唐人街吃饭，想把剩菜打包带走，但餐厅刚好没塑料袋了。结果他竟然开始辱骂女服务员，说她命不好、只能拿最低工资。君子无论如何都不应该对任何人说这种话，更何况是对一位辛苦工作的女性。更重要的是，海外华人在西方面前这样互相羞辱，非常丢脸。

@gnoble79 @tritons61 he is a Real Estate Broker.

@tritons61 Long buyer?

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets. Not because the cars are bad. But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT. I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability. Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference. The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong. Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside. NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving. In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles. The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes. Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin. But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed: The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock. Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger. Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers. It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning. Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down. When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely. That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol. I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this. And now it even gets WORSE... CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading. Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision: In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded. No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA. NONE of it. So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back. The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing. This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it. I've seen every bust of the last four decades. But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous. But the math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.

@XH_Lee23 UNO reverse card on free market capitalism ?

Ford CEO Jim Farley: We should not let Chinese EVs into the US. Jim himself drove a Chinese Xiaomi Su7 and has been to China 6-7 times a year. He said, "It's the most humbling thing I've ever seen. They have far superior in-vehicle tech." Can't win, so they ban.

@cholentfarts @KerryHolmekb @grok Obviously staged. From this angle, the person with the camera would be sitting diagonally in front of the kid, turning around to film 4'oclock, given zero camera shake, it's not on zoom, meaning he's got his camera almost in the kid's face the whole time. com'on ...

@KerryHolmekb Hate to be this putz, but @grok what do u know about the legitimacy of the video? Staged or real?

This viral airplane video shows a common travel headache that blew up online. A teenage kid kept kicking the seat in front of him over and over, even after the adult passenger politely asked him to stop multiple times. The frustrated man finally had enough and slammed his seat back hard in one quick move. Because the teen had his knees raised up toward his chest, the sudden recline drove the seat into his legs, forcing his knee to snap up and smash into his own face. Reports say it broke his teeth and caused bleeding.

Failed Robotaxi ride in 91° heat. I LOVE Tesla @Robotaxi and tonight is date night and I was SO EXCITED to take my Wife on an Unsupervised Robotaxi ride for drinks and dinner in Austin. I hailed the ride after “High Service Demand” cleared after ~15mins of trying. A red Model Y shows up with zero Robotaxi markings on it and a guy driving in the front seat. I was immediately let down but we had already waited so long and we needed to reach out destination so we got in. His hands were on the wheel the whole time and it felt like it was last year when the program was just starting. The Supervisor was nice but the ride went sideways. We tried to go to Zanzibar in Austin but the car drove right by the entrance and took us ~a 1/4 mile way out of the way to a residential apartment building. We asked the supervisor what was going on and he called Support and told us to press the support button. Support came on the line and said there was nothing they could do. We had to walk in the 91° heat. We were dressed in nice clothes and shoes not made for walking. My Wife was NOT impressed. I was embarrassed as I had talked up the service so much. On our walk to our destination, we witnessed a Waymo dropping off a rider in the place that we should have been dropped off. Additionally, when we arrived at our destination, hot and sweaty, we saw that there was plenty of room to drop us off. Very frustrating. The best part is, we paid for this experience.