Will Denyer

Based on Maurice Allais' "golden rule", bond yields should tend toward the structural growth rate of the economy. US 10 year yields only offer fair value today if you assume (as the market seems to do) that the Fed will get inflation back to 2%.

Gold Drops 6%. Why It’s Losing Out to Higher Oil Prices and Interest Rates. barrons.com/articles/gold-… via @BarronsOnline

US treasuries and gold show strong return-to-the-mean tendencies when priced in oil. If this tendency persists, gold is vulnerable to a major price correction.

US spending on offices for computers has now surpassed US spending on offices for humans: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and in Washington D.C., our US Economics Correspondent, writer & broadcaster, Barry Wood. 2/3

The latest spike in oil prices could lift inflations expectations and make it hard for the Fed to cut rates further. If inflation expectations rise and stay high, hikes are even possible.

It would be inflationary, bearish dollar, and bullish gold. That is, unless the Fed decides to “sterilize” this new money by selling securities. If only the Fed had a Chair who wanted to sell mortgage-backed securities and long-term treasuries. Queue Kevin Warsh….

In 1973, the US Treasury issued gold certificates against its gold holdings, valued at US$42.22/oz, and sold those certificates to the Fed for freshly printed money.

It could revalue, reissue, and remonetize these certificates today, forcing the Fed to print US$1.3 trillion and give it to the Treasury. This could cover two-thirds of this year’s budget deficit, in lieu of additional borrowing.

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and David Roche, President & Global Strategist at Quantum Strategy. 2/3

Fed governors approved all regional Fed Presidents for another 5 year term, 1 month earlier than last time and 2 months earlier than required. This got it done ahead of Supreme Court hearing of Gov Cook’s case in Jan. Even harder for Trump to “pack the Fed” now.

US consumer staple stocks is one of a few potential contrarian trades for 2026. US economist Will Denyer explains five catalysts that could lead to US consumer staples outperforming in the coming year—breaking a long cycle of underperformance: research.gavekal.com/teaser/video-w…

Good article about an important theme. I was happy to be a part of it. Driverless cars are now proliferating, which is great news. They will make the world safer and more productive.

with Mark Michelson, Chairman of the Asia CEO Forum at IMA Asia, Will Denyer, US Economist at Gavekal, and in Washington D.C., our US Economics Correspondent, writer & broadcaster, Barry Wood. 2/3

Bond yields do not always fall after the Fed starts cutting rates...

Miran dissented for a larger cut, as expected. He has every incentive to do Trump's bidding. But interestingly, Waller and Bowman did not. That may cost them a shot at the Fed Chair job, but could also save Fed independence.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total US spending in Q2, up from 48.5% in Q1, reaching the highest level in data going back to 1989: Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi bloomberg.com/news/articles/…